MQP 16H CHEAT SHEET
HEADER - I have some confidence it should play like this leading into 4/29 or 5/3 entry.
SUMMARY - Looking more and more like 16A. This is now 51% vs all other routes combined while "sideways until August" is still 1 in 3.
DETAILS - Links for 16A through 16G are below for background.
SUMMARY - Looking more and more like 16A. This is now 51% vs all other routes combined while "sideways until August" is still 1 in 3.
DETAILS - Links for 16A through 16G are below for background.
Comment:
Update 9.45 am ET MON 4/18
1) tagged 1996 this morning
2) this week is pretty bearish looking
3) the low should be Friday
4) 1950s is the high end
5) 1915 is the low end
6) we will be more precise by WED 4/20 NY close
1) tagged 1996 this morning
2) this week is pretty bearish looking
3) the low should be Friday
4) 1950s is the high end
5) 1915 is the low end
6) we will be more precise by WED 4/20 NY close
Comment:
7) odds on MAY RALLY now 55%+ vs field
8) my first entry will be FRIDAY 4/22
9) my second entry will be following FRIDAY 4/29
10) my third entry will be WED 5/4
8) my first entry will be FRIDAY 4/22
9) my second entry will be following FRIDAY 4/29
10) my third entry will be WED 5/4
Comment:
11) if you are not using leverage, then 4/22 IS BEST ENTRY PERIOD
12) if you are, then maybe use tapered up formula, that is:
14) split 4 days, 4/29, 5/2, 5/3, and 5/4 (Fri, Mon, Tue, Wed)
15) at 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% of total entry size
12) if you are, then maybe use tapered up formula, that is:
14) split 4 days, 4/29, 5/2, 5/3, and 5/4 (Fri, Mon, Tue, Wed)
15) at 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% of total entry size
Comment:
16) why get excited at 55%??
17) because odds of a weaker May rally should be 15%+, and odds of
18) of "going no where until August" is now less than 30%
19) the important part here is that these odds stay the same OR IMPROVE
20) as long as 1930s hold for this week
21) good luck
17) because odds of a weaker May rally should be 15%+, and odds of
18) of "going no where until August" is now less than 30%
19) the important part here is that these odds stay the same OR IMPROVE
20) as long as 1930s hold for this week
21) good luck
Comment:
TUE 12.37 AM ET - Doesn't look like 1950s will hold. Probably heading to 1923 on Friday, maybe even lower. This will worsen odds of May rally. Will comment more later this week.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
8:50 AM ET 4/20
1. So 20 pts difference for Friday low(1916 vs 1935), is roughly 1%.
2. But that is difference between majority favorite and minority favorite.
3. If 1935, then odds of sideways until August is less than 25%.
4. If 1916, then odds of sideways until august is 33% or more.
5. It would then change the location of 7th box to 15-25 pts lower.
6. It would make it more prudent to wait for 4/29 entry.
7. I stated that I liked where the first 7 boxes were, now I am not sure about the 7th box.
8. That's pretty much it for this week.
1. So 20 pts difference for Friday low(1916 vs 1935), is roughly 1%.
2. But that is difference between majority favorite and minority favorite.
3. If 1935, then odds of sideways until August is less than 25%.
4. If 1916, then odds of sideways until august is 33% or more.
5. It would then change the location of 7th box to 15-25 pts lower.
6. It would make it more prudent to wait for 4/29 entry.
7. I stated that I liked where the first 7 boxes were, now I am not sure about the 7th box.
8. That's pretty much it for this week.
Comment:
8.01 AM ET 4/21
1. 1940 defended yesterday, but curves remained weak so we tagged 3rd box a second time later than expeted.
2. Bollingers in this area say the floor is 1933 and we hit 1936 moments ago so I am expecting price to head for 4th box before tagging 5th box.
3. So maybe 1946 next and then 1923. sometime within next 26 hours.
4. I WILL TAKE MY FIRST ENTRY LONG w/in next 30 hours (by 2 PM ET FRIDAY).
1. 1940 defended yesterday, but curves remained weak so we tagged 3rd box a second time later than expeted.
2. Bollingers in this area say the floor is 1933 and we hit 1936 moments ago so I am expecting price to head for 4th box before tagging 5th box.
3. So maybe 1946 next and then 1923. sometime within next 26 hours.
4. I WILL TAKE MY FIRST ENTRY LONG w/in next 30 hours (by 2 PM ET FRIDAY).
Comment:
8:40 AM ET 4/21
1. Just tagged bottom right corner of 4th box 1947.xx.
2. This spike has some strengh, so after it stalls and drops later, there should be a second spike.
3. But the ceiling is 1953 for the next 20 hours before it drops again.
4. It didn't really tag the black support line this morning, it will within 24 hours.
5. Odds favor it BREAKING AND STICK SAVE.
1. Just tagged bottom right corner of 4th box 1947.xx.
2. This spike has some strengh, so after it stalls and drops later, there should be a second spike.
3. But the ceiling is 1953 for the next 20 hours before it drops again.
4. It didn't really tag the black support line this morning, it will within 24 hours.
5. Odds favor it BREAKING AND STICK SAVE.
Comment:
8:45 PM ET THURSDAY 4/21
1. Top should be in 1954 with the second spike as forecasted.
2. Despite the support line not getting tagged as of yet...
3. I still think we see 1923 tomorrow morning, 12 to 14 hours from now.
4. I will buy June 1925 calls hopefully around 1925 tomorrow.
5. If we hit 5th box as planned, we should be on time for 6th box but 7th box is a MAYBE.
6. And that's all she wrote.
1. Top should be in 1954 with the second spike as forecasted.
2. Despite the support line not getting tagged as of yet...
3. I still think we see 1923 tomorrow morning, 12 to 14 hours from now.
4. I will buy June 1925 calls hopefully around 1925 tomorrow.
5. If we hit 5th box as planned, we should be on time for 6th box but 7th box is a MAYBE.
6. And that's all she wrote.
Comment:
2:12 AM ET FRIDAY 4/22
1. gold broke out of the 1953 ceiling after pushing for a while
2. this changes things for tomorrow
3. while I can't eliminate "one more low for tomorrow, odds now say the low is in
4. so now what?
5. this post (16H) needs a thorough update that I don't have time for
6. but basically prepare for May rally, bc ...
7. as of this second, odds for that is getting closer to 60%
8. the question is what it's going to look like
9. regressions say nothing major should happen before 5/4, so we can chill out for a while.
1. gold broke out of the 1953 ceiling after pushing for a while
2. this changes things for tomorrow
3. while I can't eliminate "one more low for tomorrow, odds now say the low is in
4. so now what?
5. this post (16H) needs a thorough update that I don't have time for
6. but basically prepare for May rally, bc ...
7. as of this second, odds for that is getting closer to 60%
8. the question is what it's going to look like
9. regressions say nothing major should happen before 5/4, so we can chill out for a while.
Comment:
8:02 AM FRIDAY
1. Just woke up.
2. Unreal, had to go straight to down to hold original forecast, and it did.
3. Floor should be 1920=1923 if it keeps pushing down.
1. Just woke up.
2. Unreal, had to go straight to down to hold original forecast, and it did.
3. Floor should be 1920=1923 if it keeps pushing down.
Comment:
8:15 AM FRIDAY
4. Technical floor is 1917.
4. Technical floor is 1917.
Comment:
10:17 AM ET
1. You should be long by now.
2. It's 1945, we are heading for 6th box now.
3. Again, I don't know how I feel about 7th box.
4. My suspicion is that we are going to hit that area EARLY AND THEN FALL and miss the box.
5. So 1975-1980 sometime next week should be a decent short term high.
6. If you are trading with no leverage, TODAY IS THE ENTRY FOR MAY 30TH EXIT.
7. It's 1945 now, 2195 should be on time for May 30th, so 250pts. That's not bad.
8. Nothing major should happen before 5/4 FOMC.
9. So I am expecting a push for 1970-1980, stall and retrace.
10. There should be 2 more in-between lows. That should be 4/29 and then 5/3 or 5/4.
11. They should be around 1955.
12. In theory, you can avoid the headache and wait for 5/3 bc you wouldn't be missing out on much.
13. Even though this chart was on time for first 5 boxes, it still needs to be updated sometime next week because the curves look somewhat different now.
14. And that's all she wrote.
1. You should be long by now.
2. It's 1945, we are heading for 6th box now.
3. Again, I don't know how I feel about 7th box.
4. My suspicion is that we are going to hit that area EARLY AND THEN FALL and miss the box.
5. So 1975-1980 sometime next week should be a decent short term high.
6. If you are trading with no leverage, TODAY IS THE ENTRY FOR MAY 30TH EXIT.
7. It's 1945 now, 2195 should be on time for May 30th, so 250pts. That's not bad.
8. Nothing major should happen before 5/4 FOMC.
9. So I am expecting a push for 1970-1980, stall and retrace.
10. There should be 2 more in-between lows. That should be 4/29 and then 5/3 or 5/4.
11. They should be around 1955.
12. In theory, you can avoid the headache and wait for 5/3 bc you wouldn't be missing out on much.
13. Even though this chart was on time for first 5 boxes, it still needs to be updated sometime next week because the curves look somewhat different now.
14. And that's all she wrote.
Comment:
4.25 PM ET FRI
1. CLOSING UNDER 1938 IS NOT GOOD.
2. 35 min to go.
3. It broke the trend line 3 times and failed 3 times.
4. Can't say I like that.
1. CLOSING UNDER 1938 IS NOT GOOD.
2. 35 min to go.
3. It broke the trend line 3 times and failed 3 times.
4. Can't say I like that.
Comment:
10:57 PM ET SATURDAY
1. Sigh... we have to wait and see.
2. I can't tell what it's going to do.
3. The short curves are looking really bad.
4. So? It's 50-50 for next 18 hours of price action.
5. If May rally is going to happen, then it MUST MOVE TO 1957+ by 18, 24 hours max.
6. The other route is to 1890s again.
7. Which would flip the odds for May vs August rallly.
8. May rally would fall to 20-25 while August rally would be 60% immediately.
9. There's no point in updating until Tues-Wed bc of the 50-50 inflection point.
1. Sigh... we have to wait and see.
2. I can't tell what it's going to do.
3. The short curves are looking really bad.
4. So? It's 50-50 for next 18 hours of price action.
5. If May rally is going to happen, then it MUST MOVE TO 1957+ by 18, 24 hours max.
6. The other route is to 1890s again.
7. Which would flip the odds for May vs August rallly.
8. May rally would fall to 20-25 while August rally would be 60% immediately.
9. There's no point in updating until Tues-Wed bc of the 50-50 inflection point.
Comment:
8:40 PM ET
1. I closed longs right at open hours ago.
2. Just watching now along with ES and CL.
3. Short term curves just keep getting worse and worse.
1. I closed longs right at open hours ago.
2. Just watching now along with ES and CL.
3. Short term curves just keep getting worse and worse.
Comment:
10:30 PM ET SUNDAY.
Comment:
For chart above:
1) First, series 16 is dead.
2) Second, 1890s probably won't hold.
3) Third, possible floor is 1877.
4) it's going to get really ugly now because cross-asset vol is back with a vengeance.
1) First, series 16 is dead.
2) Second, 1890s probably won't hold.
3) Third, possible floor is 1877.
4) it's going to get really ugly now because cross-asset vol is back with a vengeance.
Comment:
THIS WEEK'S PLAN >>
1) detailed chart by chart is in 16E
2) 4/22 entry is decent but has some further downside risk
3) the last 3 boxes are still fuzzy, I am suspicious that the last box on 5/4 maybe 20 lower than where I placed it