MQP 17F SUPER MOMENTUM TRAP
HEADER - This is next move as it stands.
SUMMARY - This just keeps going south harder and harder. No slowing down means 1845 some time in 24 hours.
DETAILS - That's all I have. I dont know what that means overall. I do know that 2-way extreme vol is a sure thing for the next 15 trading days. So be extremely careful and don't be married to a position. In this environment, you can have a 100 points move up off 1840, only to sell down again 200 pts and swing back up 300 pts. See 2008 liquidity crisis chart for an idea of what you are facing.
SUMMARY - This just keeps going south harder and harder. No slowing down means 1845 some time in 24 hours.
DETAILS - That's all I have. I dont know what that means overall. I do know that 2-way extreme vol is a sure thing for the next 15 trading days. So be extremely careful and don't be married to a position. In this environment, you can have a 100 points move up off 1840, only to sell down again 200 pts and swing back up 300 pts. See 2008 liquidity crisis chart for an idea of what you are facing.
Comment:
1.44 AM ET THURSDAY
1. after some chart porn, pre-FOMC floor should be 1800
2. post FOMC ceiling still 1950
3. final floor in May 1720? or 1700
4. 2070 in June
1. after some chart porn, pre-FOMC floor should be 1800
2. post FOMC ceiling still 1950
3. final floor in May 1720? or 1700
4. 2070 in June
Comment:
10 AM THURSDAY.
1. I just posted a note saying odds favor 17D.
2. TYPO!
3. It is 17E!! NOT 17D.
1. I just posted a note saying odds favor 17D.
2. TYPO!
3. It is 17E!! NOT 17D.
Comment:
HERE IS COMBINED WORK 17A TO 17F:
1. The floor for tomorrow is 1820.
2. So I'm actually being conservative forecasting 1840.
3. This is so complicated now, the spread of swings before FOMC is ridiculous.
4. The floor prior to FOMC would be 1720 as it stands.