Gold for the next week 18-Sep-2023 Till Closed Manually
I initially planned to share this on Sunday evening, but given that I'm including my personal trading strategy, I've decided to release it on Saturday instead. This way, someone might find value in my approach and have ample time to understand and implement it in their trading for the upcoming week
Bullish Scenario
Bearish Scenario
My personal Trading Strategy for Gold
Important Notes
Personal Insights
Bullish Scenario
- Institutional Bias: If institutions remain aggressively bullish on Monday, expect minimal retracement to demand zones.
- Daily Supply Zone: A retracement to the demand zone may occur to trap sellers before resuming the bullish trend.
- Bull Run Extension: The market may stall within the daily supply zone before continuing its upward trajectory.
- Break Above 1953: A break above this level could signal a long-term bullish run, potentially setting new lifetime highs.
Bearish Scenario
- Institutional Shift: If institutions shift from buying to selling, they may push the market to the daily supply zone to trap buyers before a sharp decline.
- Liquidity Trap: The market may oscillate between supply and demand zones to generate liquidity before crashing.
- Short-Term Outlook: Given Friday's bullish narrative, a bearish run seems less likely in the immediate term.
- High Time Frame (HTF) Bias: The market could revert to a bearish trend as the HTF bias remains bearish.
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My personal Trading Strategy for Gold
- Preparation: Be at your trading station one hour before the London Open.
- Daily Time Frame (TF): Mark trendlines to determine overall market bias.
- 4hr TF: Identify any break of structures.
- 1hr TF: Mark unmitigated supply and demand zones.
- 15min TF: Wait for the price to reach your marked zones or Points of Interest (POI).
- Entry Criteria: Look for a clean Break of Structure (BOS) on a lower time frame (preferably 5 minutes).
- Momentum and Volume: Ensure the BOS has sufficient momentum and volume.
- Entry Point: Enter after the BOS candle closes.
- Stop Loss (SL): Use a fixed pip SL or place it above the previous swing high.
- Take Profit (TP): Subjective to your trading style.
- Risk Management: Limit SL to 1% of your equity.
- Pip and Lot Calculation: Understand pip values for different trading instruments.
- Profit Targets: Maintain realistic daily, weekly, and monthly targets.
- Weekly Target: Aim for a 5% increase in equity.
- Daily Target: Once reached, reduce your market exposure.
- Loss Management: If a trade goes south, take a step back and analyze.
Important Notes
- These are personal insights and subject to market conditions.
- Market moves may take from one day to several weeks to materialize.
- Global economic uncertainty could increase gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Personal Insights
- Emotional detachment and mechanical trading have improved my performance.
- Always align your trades with the market's overall direction.
- Counter-trend strategies are generally riskier unless supported by divergences.
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Comment:
My trading experience and log for 18th and 19th September 2023:
Market Analysis:
The market has touched the Daily Supply Zone between 1934.40 and 1953 levels.
Trading Experience:
18th Sep: Traded during the London and early NY sessions. The market was choppy, resulting in a net loss of 0.80% of my equity.
19th Sep: Adjusted strategy and gained 0.70% in profits, still 0.1% behind the previous day's loss.
Current Market Status:
The market touched 1937 and retraced to 1930 levels.
A downward move to 1918 is possible if institutional selling pressure shows up.
Institutions appear to remain bullish, targeting liquidity above the 1940 level before potentially initiating a significant bearish trend.
Strategic Changes:
Decided to align trades with institutional direction only and refrain from counter trend entries.
My usual Risk per entry: 0.50% - 1% of equity.
Usual Reward to risk ratio: Greater than 3:1. (Works only in Trending Markets)
During choppy markets i try to scalp in the direction of the market using bigger lot sizes and taking partials after every 10 pips and letting the most expendable lot size run either with a trailing stop or sl being placed at BE
Outlook:
Waiting for a trending market in September to achieve larger financial goals.
Market Analysis:
The market has touched the Daily Supply Zone between 1934.40 and 1953 levels.
Trading Experience:
18th Sep: Traded during the London and early NY sessions. The market was choppy, resulting in a net loss of 0.80% of my equity.
19th Sep: Adjusted strategy and gained 0.70% in profits, still 0.1% behind the previous day's loss.
Current Market Status:
The market touched 1937 and retraced to 1930 levels.
A downward move to 1918 is possible if institutional selling pressure shows up.
Institutions appear to remain bullish, targeting liquidity above the 1940 level before potentially initiating a significant bearish trend.
Strategic Changes:
Decided to align trades with institutional direction only and refrain from counter trend entries.
My usual Risk per entry: 0.50% - 1% of equity.
Usual Reward to risk ratio: Greater than 3:1. (Works only in Trending Markets)
During choppy markets i try to scalp in the direction of the market using bigger lot sizes and taking partials after every 10 pips and letting the most expendable lot size run either with a trailing stop or sl being placed at BE
Outlook:
Waiting for a trending market in September to achieve larger financial goals.
Comment:
21-Sep-2023
As per the market analysis I shared on September 16, 2023, the current market trends are aligning well with our expectations. Now, the key factor to watch is institutional activity. If we observe a surge in sell momentum from the institutions, it would be prudent to consider short positions down to at least the 1910 level.
Should the market dip below the 1910 threshold, it would be a strong indicator of a new bearish cycle. Conversely, if the market finds support at the demand zones, we could witness a bullish reversal.
As per the market analysis I shared on September 16, 2023, the current market trends are aligning well with our expectations. Now, the key factor to watch is institutional activity. If we observe a surge in sell momentum from the institutions, it would be prudent to consider short positions down to at least the 1910 level.
Should the market dip below the 1910 threshold, it would be a strong indicator of a new bearish cycle. Conversely, if the market finds support at the demand zones, we could witness a bullish reversal.
Comment:
Trading Log: 21-Sep-2023
Today marked a shift in market direction, aligning with the high-timeframe (HTF) bearish bias, unlike last week's counter movements.
Key Trades:
First Trade: A counter trend buy at 1922.96, based on a 5 minute TF divergence, yielded 25 pips. Closed manually due to weak bullish momentum.
Second Trade: An unplanned sell around the GBP news release secured 10 pips. Closed manually, a decision I regret as the market dropped further.
Third Trade: Initiated at 1921.17 after a 5 minute candle negated another divergence. This trade netted 50 pips as the market moved towards the next demand zone.
Market Outlook:
The institutional sentiment remains bearish. If this holds through the London and NY sessions tomorrow, expect gold to initially lure buyers by displaying a deceptive upward trend and then drop below 1910.
Trading Tips on Divergences:
Trade counter trend divergences only if a bullish or bearish engulfing candle breaks structure. I mostly use 5 min TF divergences to scalp counter trend moves.
If the candle strongly negates the counter trend BIAS created by the divergence then immediately enter in the opposite direction against the Divergence's indication. Banks do trap Divergence traders and that is where lot of money is made in few minutes
The most profitable strategy is to trade in the direction of market and institutional bias.
Today was a testament to the power of aligning with institutional moves. Keep an eye on the sentiment for continued success.
Today marked a shift in market direction, aligning with the high-timeframe (HTF) bearish bias, unlike last week's counter movements.
Key Trades:
First Trade: A counter trend buy at 1922.96, based on a 5 minute TF divergence, yielded 25 pips. Closed manually due to weak bullish momentum.
Second Trade: An unplanned sell around the GBP news release secured 10 pips. Closed manually, a decision I regret as the market dropped further.
Third Trade: Initiated at 1921.17 after a 5 minute candle negated another divergence. This trade netted 50 pips as the market moved towards the next demand zone.
Market Outlook:
The institutional sentiment remains bearish. If this holds through the London and NY sessions tomorrow, expect gold to initially lure buyers by displaying a deceptive upward trend and then drop below 1910.
Trading Tips on Divergences:
Trade counter trend divergences only if a bullish or bearish engulfing candle breaks structure. I mostly use 5 min TF divergences to scalp counter trend moves.
If the candle strongly negates the counter trend BIAS created by the divergence then immediately enter in the opposite direction against the Divergence's indication. Banks do trap Divergence traders and that is where lot of money is made in few minutes
The most profitable strategy is to trade in the direction of market and institutional bias.
Today was a testament to the power of aligning with institutional moves. Keep an eye on the sentiment for continued success.
Comment:
This idea is still valid and will be used till Gold Price crosses and closes above either the Daily Supply zone or the lowest Untapped Demand Zone
My outlook for Next week starting from 25-Sep-2023
The prevailing longterm trend for gold appears to be bearish, a sentiment that has been widely anticipated for a downward movement to lower price levels. However, the market took an unexpected turn last Friday, closing with an institutional bias that was inexplicably bullish and stalled the market to trap Retail Traders.
Should this appetite for liquidity from banks and market movers persist into the upcoming week, there's a possibility that we could see a wick upwards into the Daily Supply Zone, specifically around the 1938 - 1940 levels. This move could be a strategy to attract liquidity and subsequently eliminate retail sellers from the market. Following this, a sharp decline to the 1910 level or even lower could be imminent.
While the market was already expected to be bearish, the current landscape of economic uncertainty fueled by fears of a recession among investors and ambiguous geopolitical conditions may steer gold in an entirely different direction in the days to come.
As traders we can only speculate and wait for the Market to show us a clear direction through solid Price action and reliable structure......
My outlook for Next week starting from 25-Sep-2023
The prevailing longterm trend for gold appears to be bearish, a sentiment that has been widely anticipated for a downward movement to lower price levels. However, the market took an unexpected turn last Friday, closing with an institutional bias that was inexplicably bullish and stalled the market to trap Retail Traders.
Should this appetite for liquidity from banks and market movers persist into the upcoming week, there's a possibility that we could see a wick upwards into the Daily Supply Zone, specifically around the 1938 - 1940 levels. This move could be a strategy to attract liquidity and subsequently eliminate retail sellers from the market. Following this, a sharp decline to the 1910 level or even lower could be imminent.
While the market was already expected to be bearish, the current landscape of economic uncertainty fueled by fears of a recession among investors and ambiguous geopolitical conditions may steer gold in an entirely different direction in the days to come.
As traders we can only speculate and wait for the Market to show us a clear direction through solid Price action and reliable structure......
Comment:
Comment:
Today was another remarkable day in the gold market, characterized by a significant alignment between institutional sentiment and High Time Frame (HTF) bias.
Bearish Speculation:
Retail Sentiment: If retail sentiment remains 70% or above leaning towards buys, institutions could drive the market lower.
Support Level: The market is currently at a strong support level. A downward break could trigger a free fall to the 1810 - 1825 levels.
Bullish Speculation:
USD Weakness: If the Dollar weakens due to fundamentals or other factors, gold prices may stall between the most recent supply and demand zones before targeting liquidity above the 1950s level and potentially reaching new lifetime highs.
Caution:
Market Unpredictability: No one can predict market movements with 100% accuracy. Market decision-makers have the power to steer the market according to their trading plans.
Risk Management: Always adhere to robust risk management strategies and set trading rules to mitigate losses.
Today was another remarkable day in the gold market, characterized by a significant alignment between institutional sentiment and High Time Frame (HTF) bias.
Bearish Speculation:
Retail Sentiment: If retail sentiment remains 70% or above leaning towards buys, institutions could drive the market lower.
Support Level: The market is currently at a strong support level. A downward break could trigger a free fall to the 1810 - 1825 levels.
Bullish Speculation:
USD Weakness: If the Dollar weakens due to fundamentals or other factors, gold prices may stall between the most recent supply and demand zones before targeting liquidity above the 1950s level and potentially reaching new lifetime highs.
Caution:
Market Unpredictability: No one can predict market movements with 100% accuracy. Market decision-makers have the power to steer the market according to their trading plans.
Risk Management: Always adhere to robust risk management strategies and set trading rules to mitigate losses.
Trade closed manually:
A Remarkable Day in the Gold Market
Today was an extraordinary day in the gold market, one for the books. Despite a strong bullish sentiment from the retail sector since the London open, gold experienced a dramatic bearish run.
The Impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
We are currently in a significant QT phase, which has profound implications for gold prices.
Lower Gold Prices: The rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, contributing to its bearish momentum.
Reduced Demand: Higher interest rates make alternative investment options more appealing, further dampening demand for gold.
My Trading Experience
I capitalized on this bearish trend and secured a 2.5% gain on my equity today. Adhering to my trading discipline, I wrapped up my trades within the first two hours of the New York session. I exited the market around the 1883 levels, achieving my daily target and effectively closing my position for the day.
Looking Ahead
This trading idea is now officially closed. Stay tuned for a comprehensive market analysis that I'll be sharing over the weekend, setting the stage for next week's trading opportunities.
Today was an extraordinary day in the gold market, one for the books. Despite a strong bullish sentiment from the retail sector since the London open, gold experienced a dramatic bearish run.
The Impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT)
We are currently in a significant QT phase, which has profound implications for gold prices.
Lower Gold Prices: The rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, contributing to its bearish momentum.
Reduced Demand: Higher interest rates make alternative investment options more appealing, further dampening demand for gold.
My Trading Experience
I capitalized on this bearish trend and secured a 2.5% gain on my equity today. Adhering to my trading discipline, I wrapped up my trades within the first two hours of the New York session. I exited the market around the 1883 levels, achieving my daily target and effectively closing my position for the day.
Looking Ahead
This trading idea is now officially closed. Stay tuned for a comprehensive market analysis that I'll be sharing over the weekend, setting the stage for next week's trading opportunities.
Comment:
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Entry Criteria: Only consider entering a short (sell) position when there is a clear Break of Structure (BOS) accompanied by downward momentum.
Risk Management: Move the Stop Loss (SL) to Break Even (BE) after gaining 20 pips.
Volume Caution: If there is insufficient volume on the sell side, it's advisable to stay out of the market to avoid unnecessary risk.
For Buyers:
Entry Criteria: Long (buy) positions become favorable once the market clearly breaks above the 1930 level.
Personal Bias: I am personally inclined towards taking buy positions today, given the market conditions.