XAUUSD | Fundamental & Technical Analysis

Gold continues to fluctuate around $2,020 in the latter half of Friday, holding its position despite a 4.1% retreat in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, driven by December PCE inflation data. The gold price remains within a limited range, with the Fed closely monitoring inflation trends, and the PCE outcome will impact its restrictive stance on interest rates. Despite the economic resilience of the United States, gold prices could benefit from a slowdown in inflationary pressures. The probability of a rate cut in March has risen to 50%, but challenges persist for the Fed as the US economy remains robust, with a 3.3% GDP growth in Q4 2023. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates, but investors will be attentive to signals regarding potential future cuts. The gold price exhibits an interesting pattern, with a primary bearish channel and a newly formed bullish one. The outlook suggests a potential initial movement following the bearish trend towards the $2000 zone, followed by sustained upward momentum in the new bullish trend. However, it is crucial to consider the option of a short scenario near $2000 and monitor developments following the Fed's announcements. Regards from Nicola, and have a great day, everyone.