Ahead of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report out of the US, the world’s oldest inflation hedge is consolidating in a tight range above rising trend line support.
Traders and economists are expecting inflation to come in at 8.3% y/y (+0.7% m/m), in-line with last month’s reading, and with a highly-anticipated FOMC meeting set for next Wednesday, gold in particular may be poised for a breakout.
The precious metal has spent nearly 3 weeks consolidating between $1830 and $1870 as investors await clarity on the outlook for inflation and implications for Fed policy. As many experienced traders know, volatility tends to be cyclical on all timeframes, meaning that periods of low volatility (like we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks) tend to be followed by period of higher volatility and strong price movements; many traders seek to capitalize on this tendency by trading breakouts from low-volatility ranges.
As it stands, gold still remains above an 8-month rising trend line, suggesting that the longer-term trend favors the bulls. If we see a bullish breakout, potentially on the back of a stronger-than-expected CPI report, the yellow metal could quick rise toward previous-support-turned-resistance above $1900. Meanwhile, a soft CPI report and a break below the current range and bullish trend line would open the door for a deeper retracement toward $1780 or lower in the coming weeks.
Traders and economists are expecting inflation to come in at 8.3% y/y (+0.7% m/m), in-line with last month’s reading, and with a highly-anticipated FOMC meeting set for next Wednesday, gold in particular may be poised for a breakout.
The precious metal has spent nearly 3 weeks consolidating between $1830 and $1870 as investors await clarity on the outlook for inflation and implications for Fed policy. As many experienced traders know, volatility tends to be cyclical on all timeframes, meaning that periods of low volatility (like we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks) tend to be followed by period of higher volatility and strong price movements; many traders seek to capitalize on this tendency by trading breakouts from low-volatility ranges.
As it stands, gold still remains above an 8-month rising trend line, suggesting that the longer-term trend favors the bulls. If we see a bullish breakout, potentially on the back of a stronger-than-expected CPI report, the yellow metal could quick rise toward previous-support-turned-resistance above $1900. Meanwhile, a soft CPI report and a break below the current range and bullish trend line would open the door for a deeper retracement toward $1780 or lower in the coming weeks.