MQP 17C MOMENTUM TRAP
HEADER - This replaces 17B.
SUMMARY - There is no sign of life right now. It's all momentum with 1912 ceiling through 5/04. With decisive break to be on 05/04.
DETAILS - Links to 17A and 17B are below. As of right now, this is 45% vs field, or favorite but less than 50%. Basically, it's like a vortex down. In order to change this outcome, price must break 1920 AND HOLD FOR 36 HOURS BEFORE 5/04.
SUMMARY - There is no sign of life right now. It's all momentum with 1912 ceiling through 5/04. With decisive break to be on 05/04.
DETAILS - Links to 17A and 17B are below. As of right now, this is 45% vs field, or favorite but less than 50%. Basically, it's like a vortex down. In order to change this outcome, price must break 1920 AND HOLD FOR 36 HOURS BEFORE 5/04.
Comment:
12:11 PM ET WEDNESDAY
1. a VERY TEMPORARY BOTTOM is in at 1981
2. next move should be to challenge 1910 and then fail
3. which would reverse down to to LOWER THAN 1981 (not totally necessary, but odds favor this)
4. AND THEN A SECOND MOVE TO CHALLENGE 1910 AND FAIL AGAIN
5. all of this should happen by 5/4 FOMC
6. this what the most short term curves say (less than 10 days)
7. in order to change 1740 outcome by 5/20, gold needs to move above 1910 and...
8. hold there for 36-48 hours to suggest a different outcoome
9. this NEEDS to happen BEFORE FOMC
10. if it happens AFTER FOMC like chart I will post next, it may be too late to..
11. change 1740 outcome...
12. even if it spikes as high as 1950 AFTER FOMC
1. a VERY TEMPORARY BOTTOM is in at 1981
2. next move should be to challenge 1910 and then fail
3. which would reverse down to to LOWER THAN 1981 (not totally necessary, but odds favor this)
4. AND THEN A SECOND MOVE TO CHALLENGE 1910 AND FAIL AGAIN
5. all of this should happen by 5/4 FOMC
6. this what the most short term curves say (less than 10 days)
7. in order to change 1740 outcome by 5/20, gold needs to move above 1910 and...
8. hold there for 36-48 hours to suggest a different outcoome
9. this NEEDS to happen BEFORE FOMC
10. if it happens AFTER FOMC like chart I will post next, it may be too late to..
11. change 1740 outcome...
12. even if it spikes as high as 1950 AFTER FOMC
Comment:
HERE IS 17D:
1) as of posting time, the first five boxes look solid
2) the last box may get pushed to 3rd week of May, so 5/15-5/20
3) if gold intends to change this outcome, it needs to move soon
4) going sideways under 1910 increases the odds of this happening 4% each day ...
5) so for example:'
6) end of Wed 49%, Thurs 53%, Friday 57%, Monday 61%, Tuesday 65%...
7) right at 67% FOMC
8) I don't know what this all means for markets at large, but it can't be pretty
9) it's very much a liquidity-crisis type event but I am only speculating