timwest
Long

Gold XAUUSD Daily - Buy Zone in Pullback in 9 Week Uptrend

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
1382 15 18
Time at Mode Methodology looked for a rally to the 1290 level last month, which it reached. Once the rally completed its target, I was able to see that the mode was really 9-weeks and it allowed for the market to have rallied to 1300+, which you can see here.

Since there are 4-weeks left in the uptrend and this current decline looks to be just a correction within the uptrend, I think it makes sense to re-enter long here at 1234 and look for 1300 again in the next 4 weeks.

Risk is approximately $20-$40. Upside is $60-$80. You decide how much to risk. I'll say Risk $40 to make $60, but that is being conservative.

Reason for correction? Market isn't rallying Central Bank Money Creation. US Growth, jobs, earnings, etc, have come in a bit better than expectations which is notching up strength in interest rate forecasts going further into the future. However, I think this is just a correction from SEVERELY overbought. Silver             , by contrast, hadn't reached its target, and I'll make another chart about silver             next.

Tim

1:58PM Friday, February 6, 2015
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GcNaif MOD
2 years ago
Thank you Tim, i like your analysis, infact i was waiting for Gold chart from you ,

even i think its the good place to go long .
Long on ABCD completion
+1 Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
NOTE: I shifted the box up to 1300 from 1290 (target reached level) because the box starts from the mode, which shifted up from 8-weeks at the lower level to the higher level and became 9 weeks with a 1300+ target. Either way, I'm not trying to "re-write history" but rather show you the construction of the accumulation in the gold market. There is tremendous support down here in this correction that is worth noting. Don't be scared by the selloff, because there are plenty of buyers just below the current market. That's how I see it.
+1 Reply
GcNaif MOD timwest
2 years ago
Thank you
Reply
Thanks for the motivation Tim, I was trying to hold out for 1224, which of course we may see, but there will likely be some correction back to the upside on Monday after the big USD dropped its hammer on gold today... So, I've opted to jump in today. I follow your GC charts, they are great!

Eric
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
I also put one stop methodology at 1223, a close 11 stop. You can buy down to the bottom of the green box and to the mode labeled "9-weeks" - and use a stop just under that mode. It's time to look for a bottom in the market after strong run-up to begin the year. Central Banks hate gold and they are doing their best to reflate financial markets, but you really can't push bonds up too much more once rates are negative going out 10-years. It's a massive bubble which we will only understand in hindsight. Bubble in Bonds, that is.
+2 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
eh..
i am seeing a triangle being photocopied here ..
snapshot
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claydoctor jangseohee
2 years ago
Tim, what do you think of these descending triangles Jang posted? Could we see a break out below the bottom TL, or up?
+1 Reply
jangseohee claydoctor
2 years ago
Hi Tim, i don mean to spam your posting :-)
Claydoctor: for immediate effect, i am 85% sure that price is going for the neckline :-)
if the neckline fails (false break down) we could see 1199-1200 area, thats when Gold is oversold
snapshot
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smitheric1970 PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
While I completely agree with the two duplicate patterns, we have other fundamentals pointing to a long bull run over the next 4 years.
Although yes, we could potentially see that 1190 level first, as Tim pointed out, this is a great long term time to buy in, just set your stop. Technically, if you go back to 2005, we have a nice bullish flag/pennant pattern in the works. The USD is putting a lot of pressure on Gold but Tm mentions the bubble bond and who knows how much longer equities will remain attractive.
+1 Reply
jangseohee smitheric1970
2 years ago
Hi Smitheric1970, unless the entire few months of break down is a false signal..
i don feel good going long for long term
snapshot
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VRShaiju
2 years ago
I thought I would like to share my bullish count which exactly matching your strategy

snapshot
+1 Reply
jangseohee VRShaiju
2 years ago
different time zone, different view, same immediate support seen, well done
you can insert your chart on right hand corner of reply
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smitheric1970 PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Just my take... Trend lines were meant to be broken (which is why I'm often wrong) :)
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
2 years ago
snapshot
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jangseohee smitheric1970
2 years ago
yes trendline will break as well as channel, i believe you are using linear scale
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