timwest
Long

Gold XAUUSD Daily - Buy Zone in Pullback in 9 Week Uptrend

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1398 15 19
Time at Mode Methodology looked for a rally to the 1290             level last month, which it reached. Once the rally completed its target, I was able to see that the mode was really 9-weeks and it allowed for the market to have rallied to 1300+, which you can see here.

Since there are 4-weeks left in the uptrend and this current decline looks to be just a correction within the uptrend, I think it makes sense to re-enter long here at 1234 and look for 1300 again in the next 4 weeks.

Risk is approximately $20-$40. Upside is $60-$80. You decide how much to risk. I'll say Risk $40 to make $60, but that is being conservative.

Reason for correction? Market isn't rallying Central Bank Money Creation. US Growth, jobs, earnings , etc, have come in a bit better than expectations which is notching up strength in interest rate forecasts going further into the future. However, I think this is just a correction from SEVERELY overbought. Silver             , by contrast, hadn't reached its target, and I'll make another chart about silver             next.

Tim

1:58PM Friday, February 6, 2015
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I thought I would like to share my bullish count which exactly matching your strategy

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jangseohee VRShaiju
different time zone, different view, same immediate support seen, well done
you can insert your chart on right hand corner of reply
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Just my take... Trend lines were meant to be broken (which is why I'm often wrong) :)
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
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jangseohee smitheric1970
yes trendline will break as well as channel, i believe you are using linear scale
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eh..
i am seeing a triangle being photocopied here ..
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claydoctor jangseohee
Tim, what do you think of these descending triangles Jang posted? Could we see a break out below the bottom TL, or up?
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jangseohee claydoctor
Hi Tim, i don mean to spam your posting :-)
Claydoctor: for immediate effect, i am 85% sure that price is going for the neckline :-)
if the neckline fails (false break down) we could see 1199-1200 area, thats when Gold is oversold
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While I completely agree with the two duplicate patterns, we have other fundamentals pointing to a long bull run over the next 4 years.
Although yes, we could potentially see that 1190 level first, as Tim pointed out, this is a great long term time to buy in, just set your stop. Technically, if you go back to 2005, we have a nice bullish flag/pennant pattern in the works. The USD is putting a lot of pressure on Gold but Tm mentions the bubble bond and who knows how much longer equities will remain attractive.
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jangseohee smitheric1970
Hi Smitheric1970, unless the entire few months of break down is a false signal..
i don feel good going long for long term
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