Here is a powerful way to view the Gold Market by way of GLD, the Gold ETF.
Volume is one way to look at what levels are the most important and by logic, the areas where the MOST volume traded means most people remember that level and traded at that level. And if a level has ZERO VOLUME (low volume) it means everyone WANTED to trade there but only one side of the market was strong at that level. Consequently, we can look for patterns in GLD and see that 124 is where the most volume traded and you would think that is where the market would stall in an advance and that's where it did.
Now GLD is in a correction phase from that last push up to test supply at 124. What I want to look for is where we could go next if we push through 124. I drew in a yellow line to point out the probable path of GLD once through the 124 level. Typically it can take 1/10 to 1/4 of the time spent at a key level to break through it, so it may take awhile to push through 124.
The other observations are that volume tapered off nicely as GLD went down to the 109 area and the distribution of volume across the last two years is balanced, which tells me the market is ready for a new trend. If GLD is above 124, it is strongly accumulated and can move up to test the lowest volume zones near 143.5-147.50. If it is below 124, it is possible to retest the lower end of the range at 109-108. (118.64 last)
If you look at "TIME AT MODE" trend, you can see that the market has formed a 9-week mode at 114.50 and has had 4 weeks to advance and 5 more to go before that accumulation time expires. For now, we are in an uptrend in "TIME AT MODE" and a DOWNTREND with VOLUME PROFILE. (BLUE TRIANGLE). So, the forces are fighting it out.
I hope this view of the GLD market helps you see the true structure of what has been happening in the market.
Tim 6:24PM EST Feb 9, 2015
Volume is one way to look at what levels are the most important and by logic, the areas where the MOST volume traded means most people remember that level and traded at that level. And if a level has ZERO VOLUME (low volume) it means everyone WANTED to trade there but only one side of the market was strong at that level. Consequently, we can look for patterns in GLD and see that 124 is where the most volume traded and you would think that is where the market would stall in an advance and that's where it did.
Now GLD is in a correction phase from that last push up to test supply at 124. What I want to look for is where we could go next if we push through 124. I drew in a yellow line to point out the probable path of GLD once through the 124 level. Typically it can take 1/10 to 1/4 of the time spent at a key level to break through it, so it may take awhile to push through 124.
The other observations are that volume tapered off nicely as GLD went down to the 109 area and the distribution of volume across the last two years is balanced, which tells me the market is ready for a new trend. If GLD is above 124, it is strongly accumulated and can move up to test the lowest volume zones near 143.5-147.50. If it is below 124, it is possible to retest the lower end of the range at 109-108. (118.64 last)
If you look at "TIME AT MODE" trend, you can see that the market has formed a 9-week mode at 114.50 and has had 4 weeks to advance and 5 more to go before that accumulation time expires. For now, we are in an uptrend in "TIME AT MODE" and a DOWNTREND with VOLUME PROFILE. (BLUE TRIANGLE). So, the forces are fighting it out.
I hope this view of the GLD market helps you see the true structure of what has been happening in the market.
Tim 6:24PM EST Feb 9, 2015
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