GLD -SPDR GOLD - MONTHLY DOWNTREND FAILED APRIL 2015

For the big picture of gold, look at the monthly time frame. What is the story that the monthly chart is telling us? It is showing us that Gold has FAILED to make a new low after bottoming back in November at 109.67: December, January, February, March, April all failed to push new price lows and that is a sign that the sellers are not only extremely patient, but maybe they are running out of ammunition. Time tells us a lot about a market and time tells us MORE than volume.

What we need to see now is for GLD to lift over the "mode" which I have labeled here on the chart with the light yellow box. The mode is from 114.29-115.96. It won't take a genius to point out that gold will be bullish if it gets over 115.96, but I think I can state with some degree of confidence that it will likely go over that level for the simple reason that GLD didn't break under 109.67 since November.

Another point to make is the VOLUME RESISTANCE line up at 124.70 which was the upside target from back in January when GLD accumulated and set up for the rebound to 124+.

Keep a CLOSE eye on GLD here. The BIG KICKER will be whenever China announces their gold holdings and that could dramatically shift opinion on GLD since it is very rarely disclosed. The Chinese gold holdings are supposedly less than a 1% reserve against their paper reserves (bonds, notes, bills).