GOLD - Arrival

I will be a bit late to the party with this long idea but as I see we have too much gold short idea in Tradingview right now.
Will all these retail trades make money on the short side ?
I doubt.

If you short gold you have to be ready for a 100$ upward move in the following few days. The stock market is slowly topping out and liquidity - at least some of it - will move into the precious metal complex.
Silver will be a winner in this but I don't think gold will fall or stay in a range in the next 2 weeks. I see a big chance it's going to test the 2011 summer high.

Plan accordingly.

Comment:

Gold is underperforming silver just as I expected. The reason is the XAUXAG ratio:

It’s doung its job just any other asset.

Comment:

Gold just tagged the bottom of the bull flag rectangle as RSI got oversold and printed a nice rally today. We are going to break out of the rectangle and run to 1900.

Comment:

XAUXAG ratio lost the 200SMA . After a successful backtest today it’s heading lower. I still think silver will be stronger than gold at the end of this intermediate rally.

Comment:

XAUXAG drops again today.

Comment:

Gold is trying to break out.

Comment:

Breakout completed. Target 1900.

Comment:

Actually I see nothing between 1823 and 1900... so this might be a fast 2-3 days move

Comment:

We are getting close to the target price.

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I think we are going to test the all time highs this afternoon .

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Eveb if we break out I’m going to sell into the panic buying and stop run as this intermediate cycle is close to the top.

Comment:

Almost there.

Trade closed: target reached:

Comment:

New all time highs.

Comment:

We might have topped a bit ahead of 2000$.

Comment:

When all the goldbugs started to chase the price , everybody who didn’t buy at 1800 boght in the hope of breaking 2000 for an immediate run to 3000$ in the heat of the night smartmoney dumped their gold to these poor people.