XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

KOG Report:

In last weeks KOG Report we said we would remain bearish on Gold. We said we would be looking for strong bullish momentum in the early sessions of the week targeting 1806-10, 1824-6 above that. We said these price regions would represent opportunities to short the market and target the lower levels 1797 and below that 1785. Well, you can see what happened during the course of the week and how our plan played out!

So what can we expect in the week ahead?

We’re going to concentrate on the 4H chart this week for the weekly plan as it gives us a clearer structure on what the market is trying to do. We can see there have been numerous attempts to break that 1797-95 level and hold below it but each time bulls have shown they’re not ready to give up the fight. We’re seeing a series of higher highs during the course of last week so there is a possibility we will get one more in the early sessions to come. We have targets below around the 1785 price point and below that 1770 so again will be looking to target those regions as long as the price stays below that 1830-35 supply region. We also have a target at 1818 which would give us that higher high. What we can see is that there may be more of this choppy, ranging price action which will cause retails traders to get caught trading mid-range.

The immediate range right now stands at 1818-1806 with the price closing at around 1807. So we will look for the market to open and potentially test that 1804-6 support region and find support there. Based on this support we feel the market can begin the week by attempting to test the high and maybe create a weekly high around the 1816-18 price point and above that 1822-4, where we will be looking to test our first short of the week. As long as the level holds we will be looking to target the 1785-80 price point as our first target and below that 1777 and 1770.

The flip side to this scenario is if we open this week bearishly and the market manages to close on the 4H below the 1806-4 region. In this scenario we will be looking for the price to potentially break the 1797-95 zone and target our lower levels where we will wait to go long as long as we stay above the 1775 price point.

We mentioned last week that the market has left a bit of a mess down below and performed a very strange liquidity grab from the 1795-3 level, this is what has been concerning us and we feel there is a big breakout on the way. For that reason we would suggest trading with smaller than usual lots sizes this week which will give you flexibility in the markets.

We've included the daily chart below which shows the potential trend we're in and the triangle formation that could be in play.


Below is also the range box we have been using for a few months now. If you haven't already please read our posts about 'Trading the Range' which we have added a link to at the bottom


As always, trade safe.

KOG