MQP 20B MAY RALLY LIMITS, TRADE OF THE SUMMER
HEADER - These are time/price limits for low and high for the next 15 trading days.
SUMMARY - This combines everything in 19A and 20A and super simpllified.
DETAILS - This is what the math says at 1882.93 right now:
1. the last 6 weeks I've been searching for that May rally
2. regression curves say the next 3 weeks (15 trading days) will deliver
3. there should be a swing closed by 5/27 of 290-300 pts
4. since we don't know what the next 5 days will do, the low MAY ACTUALLY BE IN AT 1849
5. but last week's FOMC-spike sell off on Thursday raised odds of 5/11-13 check down for a lower low than 1849, that maybe anywhere from 1780-1845
6. the problem here is that I can't reconcile the time/volatility limits with that low being lower than 1835
7. my conviction in this May rally is much higher than my conviction of a low under 1835 for the next 5 trading days (getting under 1820 implies more sideways with a weaker 200-240 pts rally)
8. I have no time this coming week to post much more on this subject
9. this post is listed as long bc the high of in the last week of may should be an ALL TIME HIGH
SUMMARY - This combines everything in 19A and 20A and super simpllified.
DETAILS - This is what the math says at 1882.93 right now:
1. the last 6 weeks I've been searching for that May rally
2. regression curves say the next 3 weeks (15 trading days) will deliver
3. there should be a swing closed by 5/27 of 290-300 pts
4. since we don't know what the next 5 days will do, the low MAY ACTUALLY BE IN AT 1849
5. but last week's FOMC-spike sell off on Thursday raised odds of 5/11-13 check down for a lower low than 1849, that maybe anywhere from 1780-1845
6. the problem here is that I can't reconcile the time/volatility limits with that low being lower than 1835
7. my conviction in this May rally is much higher than my conviction of a low under 1835 for the next 5 trading days (getting under 1820 implies more sideways with a weaker 200-240 pts rally)
8. I have no time this coming week to post much more on this subject
9. this post is listed as long bc the high of in the last week of may should be an ALL TIME HIGH
Comment:
3. but odds of that happening by itself is not meaningful
4. again, if I know more this week, I'll post some notes here, I just don't have time to map this out and present in in a readable manner
4. again, if I know more this week, I'll post some notes here, I just don't have time to map this out and present in in a readable manner
1. if you are short this coming week, becareful beccause it may turn even quicker than it goes down
2. there is one scenario that fits both 19A and 20A, that one daily bar stick-save on 5/11 to 5/13 with a $50 tail