GOLD 3-DAY EXTRAPOLATION TEST 1, 01/09/24
THIS IS A TEST - This is only a test.
SUMMARY - This is trend map for 72 hours detailed in 8 min bars (but posted as 15-min bars).
DETAILS - I spent last 3 weeks searching for breakout that's not coming. So I am stripping this process of all things that did not work and keeping what has worked. This is a test of that new methodology.
SUMMARY - This is trend map for 72 hours detailed in 8 min bars (but posted as 15-min bars).
DETAILS - I spent last 3 weeks searching for breakout that's not coming. So I am stripping this process of all things that did not work and keeping what has worked. This is a test of that new methodology.
Comment:
REVIEW - so what we did previously the months before that worked really well:
1) we skip the first move (to confirm the lead in is right)
2) we do not make early entries (wait until it is about to move)
3) we cut it off AT THE FIRST SIGN IT IS LATE (even if it still dragging our way)
4) that's how we win
1) we skip the first move (to confirm the lead in is right)
2) we do not make early entries (wait until it is about to move)
3) we cut it off AT THE FIRST SIGN IT IS LATE (even if it still dragging our way)
4) that's how we win
Comment:
HOW DEEP? - At least another 100 down, maybe more.
Comment:
01/09, 11:11 PM ET... THIS ROUTE EVEN BETTER:
a) but I don't know which is more likely
b) what has changed, now that I know this is
c) there is unknown risk if it bounces and you short the first bounce where there is no box
d) so just wait until the CPI
b) what has changed, now that I know this is
c) there is unknown risk if it bounces and you short the first bounce where there is no box
d) so just wait until the CPI
Comment:
Comment:
01/10, 10:07 AM ET, why not short the first bounce this morning?
a) so originally I said you could scalp the first move
b) but then last night (2 charts above here, I saw "unknown risk" and said to wait
c) it seems that was too careful, but it really wasn't bc, odds of this blue spike was legit:
d) especially after it checked down first and bounced...
e) easily could have hit 52-53
f) so no shame in that
g) the new orange is what the tail end looks like for tomorrow
h) plan is the same short the high either before CPI
i) or the knee-jerk spike after CPI
j) sometimes the trend is so bearish that the high would come before midnight tonight
k) so you don't get a kneejerk first-reaction spike for CPI
l) but you get dragging slippage into waterfall instead
m) again, use smallest bars possible (1-sec or 5-sec bars) disciplined stop/exit
a) so originally I said you could scalp the first move
b) but then last night (2 charts above here, I saw "unknown risk" and said to wait
c) it seems that was too careful, but it really wasn't bc, odds of this blue spike was legit:
e) easily could have hit 52-53
f) so no shame in that
g) the new orange is what the tail end looks like for tomorrow
h) plan is the same short the high either before CPI
i) or the knee-jerk spike after CPI
j) sometimes the trend is so bearish that the high would come before midnight tonight
k) so you don't get a kneejerk first-reaction spike for CPI
l) but you get dragging slippage into waterfall instead
m) again, use smallest bars possible (1-sec or 5-sec bars) disciplined stop/exit
Comment:
n) meanwhile, if you replay chart above
o) this analysis is simple but effective (as long as trend map is updated/confirmed 3-4 times a day)
p) so we got the bounce late (good for bears)
q) and we go the first check down early (good for bears)
r) that result in the bounce taking up " less space" upward (good for bears)
s) looking at several different regression maps all agree so we are set for tomorrow
o) this analysis is simple but effective (as long as trend map is updated/confirmed 3-4 times a day)
p) so we got the bounce late (good for bears)
q) and we go the first check down early (good for bears)
r) that result in the bounce taking up " less space" upward (good for bears)
s) looking at several different regression maps all agree so we are set for tomorrow
Comment:
11:02 AM ET, what else learned from those 3 weeks
a) is the bull dead ?
b) not dead, but NOT ALIVE, so... undead?
c) first we are going down to 1950? 40? maybe 30? before FOMC
d) however impressive that bounce will be for 1/31 FOMC
e) WILL BE SOLD OFF TO 1910, 1900? wouldn'be surprised to see 18xx
that puts us around 2/10 and by 2/20 we may see a floor
f) THIS IS THE BULLISH SCENARIO ok?
g) this is not the bearish scenario
h) this is give me this first and gold will HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD BULLISH POSTURE
i) so like.. 1870 in October was a zone like that...
j) where it had a chance to - in exact words I said - regain bullish posture if price made 2000 AND SURVIVED the ensuing selloff
k) so we need a floor first BEFORE we can even talk about:
1) what "regaining bullish posture will mean"
2) what "setting up for breakout setup will mean"
3) what "actual break out setup will mean"
4) AND BULLS ARE ALL LEGIT. .. that wlll put us back at 2130s
5) the first week of September
6) gold strong cycle over last 100 year the top in Aug '25-Jan '26
7) gold bug wet dream if gold hits PERFECT PERFECT from here on out
8) is 3400
9) bc everything above that is a pipe dream
a) is the bull dead ?
b) not dead, but NOT ALIVE, so... undead?
c) first we are going down to 1950? 40? maybe 30? before FOMC
d) however impressive that bounce will be for 1/31 FOMC
e) WILL BE SOLD OFF TO 1910, 1900? wouldn'be surprised to see 18xx
that puts us around 2/10 and by 2/20 we may see a floor
f) THIS IS THE BULLISH SCENARIO ok?
g) this is not the bearish scenario
h) this is give me this first and gold will HAVE A CHANCE TO BUILD BULLISH POSTURE
i) so like.. 1870 in October was a zone like that...
j) where it had a chance to - in exact words I said - regain bullish posture if price made 2000 AND SURVIVED the ensuing selloff
k) so we need a floor first BEFORE we can even talk about:
1) what "regaining bullish posture will mean"
2) what "setting up for breakout setup will mean"
3) what "actual break out setup will mean"
4) AND BULLS ARE ALL LEGIT. .. that wlll put us back at 2130s
5) the first week of September
6) gold strong cycle over last 100 year the top in Aug '25-Jan '26
7) gold bug wet dream if gold hits PERFECT PERFECT from here on out
8) is 3400
9) bc everything above that is a pipe dream
Comment:
l) the last 3 weeks also scanned for breakouts 12 months ahead
n) that makes September this year the "do or die" scenario for gold's 56-year cycle
o) and remember how I said maybe always means no?
p) do or die scenarios in price action means die 10:1
q) that's everything you need to know for the rest of 2024
n) that makes September this year the "do or die" scenario for gold's 56-year cycle
o) and remember how I said maybe always means no?
p) do or die scenarios in price action means die 10:1
q) that's everything you need to know for the rest of 2024
Comment:
r) BTW, what 56 year cycle means...
s) is this do or die scenario IS ONLY POSSIBLE if you account for gold prices since 1968...
t) for those that aren't clear THAT'S THE YEAR 1968 ok?
u) heheh.. that's NOT THE PRICE!
s) is this do or die scenario IS ONLY POSSIBLE if you account for gold prices since 1968...
t) for those that aren't clear THAT'S THE YEAR 1968 ok?
u) heheh.. that's NOT THE PRICE!
Comment:
12:19 PM Thursday floor on the move'
a) it was 2008-2010 when I posted chart above
b) now it's more like 2001-2004
a) it was 2008-2010 when I posted chart above
b) now it's more like 2001-2004
Comment:
12:54 PM 2023.11 everything just got more bearish really quickly ...
a) so same pattern, but weaker
b) this keeps extending lower and lower from here 01/29-30
c) we are already looking at 1880s now
d) and I wouldn't be surprised if its even lower
e) what is it?
f) feels a little bit like liquidity crisis
a) so same pattern, but weaker
b) this keeps extending lower and lower from here 01/29-30
c) we are already looking at 1880s now
d) and I wouldn't be surprised if its even lower
e) what is it?
f) feels a little bit like liquidity crisis
Comment:
1:09 PM 2023.xx so I will get a new draft up maybe 7 AM tomorrow
a) so you can see how fast this is getting worse
b) in the mean time here is what's it doing:
c) it keeps "down shifiting"
d) is getting super bearish tath it makes levels under 1880 possible for a January
e) the obvious goal is 1830 to close that gap
f) the sick part about this is the "in theory floor" for gold bull to survive was 1895-1915 BUT NOT UNTIL FEBRUARY..
g) so whatever odds gold last hope was, just got cut in half or worse in the last hour... sick AF
a) so you can see how fast this is getting worse
b) in the mean time here is what's it doing:
d) is getting super bearish tath it makes levels under 1880 possible for a January
e) the obvious goal is 1830 to close that gap
f) the sick part about this is the "in theory floor" for gold bull to survive was 1895-1915 BUT NOT UNTIL FEBRUARY..
g) so whatever odds gold last hope was, just got cut in half or worse in the last hour... sick AF
Comment:
h) so in chart above
i) this situation makes any decent spike near midnight worth shorting
j) meaning the "kiss of death" comes midnight
k) not around CPI....
l) that's status quo 1, 2, 4 minute bars
m) obviously it can bend up some bc we are still 19 hours out
i) this situation makes any decent spike near midnight worth shorting
j) meaning the "kiss of death" comes midnight
k) not around CPI....
l) that's status quo 1, 2, 4 minute bars
m) obviously it can bend up some bc we are still 19 hours out
Comment:
n) so I don't see it getting worse than this version here:
o) which just made tactical trading SHORT ANY DECENT BOUNCE w/ 36 hour time frame or longer
p) so we are looking at 1974 for Friday
o) which just made tactical trading SHORT ANY DECENT BOUNCE w/ 36 hour time frame or longer
p) so we are looking at 1974 for Friday
Comment:
3:30 just realized I never posted "this version here":
Comment:
a) for chart above, again willl get replacement up before the cpi tomorrow
b) and again SAME PATTERN, WEAKER
c) floor for tomorrow 2001, for Friday 1974
d) 2 weeks from today Wed 01/24 1870-ish
b) and again SAME PATTERN, WEAKER
c) floor for tomorrow 2001, for Friday 1974
d) 2 weeks from today Wed 01/24 1870-ish
Comment:
6:18 PM... ok so, it's starting to look like original pattern again in the morning
a) if you replay chart at top
b) extrapolations showing high OVER THAT FIRST BOX LATE
c) so implying a stronger move now before the drop
a) if you replay chart at top
b) extrapolations showing high OVER THAT FIRST BOX LATE
c) so implying a stronger move now before the drop
Comment:
8:36 PM 2028.xx, not not really sure about how strong that top is...
a) it keeps switching between midnight and 7 AM (as in which is higher)
b) but we're talking 7 pt difference and they are both going down
c) but what is more clear is CPI reaction is looking stronger than PPI reaction
d) meaning the bulk of the move will be over PPI
e) so that means while the 2001 floor is still valid until NY closes tomorrow
f) we may find ourselves at 1990 or lower Thursday into Friday like this:
a) it keeps switching between midnight and 7 AM (as in which is higher)
b) but we're talking 7 pt difference and they are both going down
c) but what is more clear is CPI reaction is looking stronger than PPI reaction
d) meaning the bulk of the move will be over PPI
e) so that means while the 2001 floor is still valid until NY closes tomorrow
f) we may find ourselves at 1990 or lower Thursday into Friday like this:
Comment:
Comment:
g) correction on d) meaning the bulk of the move will be over BEFORE PPI
Comment:
10:19 PM ET so I think like this:
Comment:
01/11, 12:12 AM ET, THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS FOLLOW UP:
That said, there's no trade-able move until Thursday morning of CPI release. If it sticks to hi-lights, CPI should be a banger. Double that for PPI on Friday. So until then, it's just wait and see unless you're scalping the first move down.