Well I havnt done gold for a while now but it appears to me that a nice setup to go long is presenting itself. This ICL has been stretched but that just makes me more confident that I have a safe Jnug play here. I am not about to try to guess what kind of wave count we are in. However, If we have started our move down into the larger C wave then this move up could look like what I drew. However, It could also be the beginning of the end of the B wave which would take us higher than I drew. I will be just fine with a move back up to the 1300 range before reassessing the pattern. Jnug will do well. but I will be watching its movement along with gold to get a feel for how powerful this move will be.
Jnug chart
Jnug chart
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Jnug 4 hr
My first target for Jnug is the weekly 20 MA around the $14 range. We may have completed a wave 2 and started the wave 3 towards the end of the day as we can see a strong impulsive green candle. GL
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Gold 4 hours
If gold starts to move similar to the way I drew the yellow then I will be getting out of my Jnug trade a little sooner than I thought. This is starting to look like a typical consolidation move before a further drop.
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Gold weekly
This could be the pattern that we are making. Gold could drop until September rate hike. Not so sure how low it could go before the final swift move up but this is worth keeping in mind.
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GOLD
Yep. I don't know about you but the next time Jnug move above $13, I am going to take my profit. This is looking way too much like a consolidation pattern. I see another leg down for gold. THEN...I would think we could get a very strong move. Oh well.
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Monthly Japanease Yen to Gold
Please allow me to show you why I think that the bottom in gold has not come yet. Check out the chart for the gold 2011 top and 2015 bottom. Do you see the correlation. And also in this monthly chart we can see that we appear to be in a typical consolidation pattern. If I am correct about this....then after one more spike in gold, we should begin the 5th wave down. I estimate that that could last as long as maybe 2023ish to 2024ish time period and that would of course push gold much much lower. The best rally in our lifetime is yet to come IMO.
Ill zoom in to a smaller time frame to show where I think we are in the short term
Please allow me to show you why I think that the bottom in gold has not come yet. Check out the chart for the gold 2011 top and 2015 bottom. Do you see the correlation. And also in this monthly chart we can see that we appear to be in a typical consolidation pattern. If I am correct about this....then after one more spike in gold, we should begin the 5th wave down. I estimate that that could last as long as maybe 2023ish to 2024ish time period and that would of course push gold much much lower. The best rally in our lifetime is yet to come IMO.
Ill zoom in to a smaller time frame to show where I think we are in the short term
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Whoopos forgot to post the monthly Yen chart
Whoopos forgot to post the monthly Yen chart
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One more Yen chart to come..even smaller time frame
One more Yen chart to come..even smaller time frame
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Check out the dates range of the first highlighted area and compare it to golds movement. Gold went up (not by a lot) but it did go up. Now look at the rest of the gold movement compared to this yen chart. SO....I see a little more upside to gold before it drops again. In other words...I think I am getting out of the gold trade until it shows me something I want to see that confirms my pattern predictions.
I am lloking to get into the VIX soon and then finish up with the next leg down for natural gas. GL on whatever you decide to do
Check out the dates range of the first highlighted area and compare it to golds movement. Gold went up (not by a lot) but it did go up. Now look at the rest of the gold movement compared to this yen chart. SO....I see a little more upside to gold before it drops again. In other words...I think I am getting out of the gold trade until it shows me something I want to see that confirms my pattern predictions.
I am lloking to get into the VIX soon and then finish up with the next leg down for natural gas. GL on whatever you decide to do
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Now the Gold Chart
So perhaps the price action for gold might look something like this with the blue arrows.
So perhaps the price action for gold might look something like this with the blue arrows.
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Jnug - possible wave count update
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Gold update
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not sure if we are finished with this 3rd wave but we could possibly reach the 1250's before we turn back down to 1125 range. After that, gold should push very hard up to the low 1400's in similar fashion to the move of early 2016. Then down it goes......way way down.
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Update on the larger pattern that I think we are in for gold
I still think we are in a large B wave. At this point I see two patterns that I am looking for. I am leaning towards the top pattern that I drew. If this top pattern is correct then we should be ending the latest bullish move in gold maybe by next week and it should end anywhere from the 1240 region to 1260 range. Then one more little drop to the 1126 range before starting a very bullish a muti month bull move similar to the 2016 run. And that could take gold anywhere from the 1420 to 1450 range before dropping hard.
However, if the bottom pattern is actually what we are in, then look for gold to push up to almost 1300 before starting its drop. Both patterns call for an eventual huge drop.
However, if the bottom pattern is actually what we are in, then look for gold to push up to almost 1300 before starting its drop. Both patterns call for an eventual huge drop.
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gold 4 hr
I still feel we have a little bit more consolidation to do and then one more push up before a bigger drop.
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Jnug 4 hr
So I am kind of thinking Jnug may behave in this manner
This looks good for a reversal today. I bought Jnug nearly perfectly at the bottom. I do not wait these days for price to reach anticipated support lines. I find that the bastards tend to reverse things just before it reaches the line just like today. So If this is the reversal, then it appears on this 4 hours chart of gold that we are working on the wave 2. IT was a pretty good wave 1. Next stop for the end of wave 3 IMO is the mid 1260's. Jnug should respond pretty aggressively. How high can Jnug go....we will have to see price behavior.