FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Well I havnt done gold for a while now but it appears to me that a nice setup to go long is presenting itself. This ICL has been stretched but that just makes me more confident that I have a safe Jnug play here. I am not about to try to guess what kind of wave count we are in. However, If we have started our move down into the larger C wave then this move up could look like what I drew. However, It could also be the beginning of the end of the B wave which would take us higher than I drew. I will be just fine with a move back up to the 1300 range before reassessing the pattern. Jnug will do well. but I will be watching its movement along with gold to get a feel for how powerful this move will be.

Jnug chart
Comment: gold 4 hour

This looks good for a reversal today. I bought Jnug nearly perfectly at the bottom. I do not wait these days for price to reach anticipated support lines. I find that the bastards tend to reverse things just before it reaches the line just like today. So If this is the reversal, then it appears on this 4 hours chart of gold that we are working on the wave 2. IT was a pretty good wave 1. Next stop for the end of wave 3 IMO is the mid 1260's. Jnug should respond pretty aggressively. How high can Jnug go....we will have to see price behavior.
Comment: Jnug 4 hr

My first target for Jnug is the weekly 20 MA around the $14 range. We may have completed a wave 2 and started the wave 3 towards the end of the day as we can see a strong impulsive green candle. GL
Comment: Gold 4 hours

If gold starts to move similar to the way I drew the yellow then I will be getting out of my Jnug trade a little sooner than I thought. This is starting to look like a typical consolidation move before a further drop.
Comment: Gold weekly

This could be the pattern that we are making. Gold could drop until September rate hike. Not so sure how low it could go before the final swift move up but this is worth keeping in mind.
Comment: GOLD

Yep. I don't know about you but the next time Jnug move above $13, I am going to take my profit. This is looking way too much like a consolidation pattern. I see another leg down for gold. THEN...I would think we could get a very strong move. Oh well.
Comment: Monthly Japanease Yen to Gold

Please allow me to show you why I think that the bottom in gold has not come yet. Check out the chart for the gold 2011 top and 2015 bottom. Do you see the correlation. And also in this monthly chart we can see that we appear to be in a typical consolidation pattern. If I am correct about this....then after one more spike in gold, we should begin the 5th wave down. I estimate that that could last as long as maybe 2023ish to 2024ish time period and that would of course push gold much much lower. The best rally in our lifetime is yet to come IMO.

Ill zoom in to a smaller time frame to show where I think we are in the short term

Whoopos forgot to post the monthly Yen chart

One more Yen chart to come..even smaller time frame

Check out the dates range of the first highlighted area and compare it to golds movement. Gold went up (not by a lot) but it did go up. Now look at the rest of the gold movement compared to this yen chart. SO....I see a little more upside to gold before it drops again. In other words...I think I am getting out of the gold trade until it shows me something I want to see that confirms my pattern predictions.

I am lloking to get into the VIX soon and then finish up with the next leg down for natural gas. GL on whatever you decide to do
Comment: Now the Gold Chart

So perhaps the price action for gold might look something like this with the blue arrows.

Comment: Jnug - possible wave count update

Comment: Gold update
not sure if we are finished with this 3rd wave but we could possibly reach the 1250's before we turn back down to 1125 range. After that, gold should push very hard up to the low 1400's in similar fashion to the move of early 2016. Then down it goes......way way down.
Comment: Update on the larger pattern that I think we are in for gold

I still think we are in a large B wave. At this point I see two patterns that I am looking for. I am leaning towards the top pattern that I drew. If this top pattern is correct then we should be ending the latest bullish move in gold maybe by next week and it should end anywhere from the 1240 region to 1260 range. Then one more little drop to the 1126 range before starting a very bullish a muti month bull move similar to the 2016 run. And that could take gold anywhere from the 1420 to 1450 range before dropping hard.

However, if the bottom pattern is actually what we are in, then look for gold to push up to almost 1300 before starting its drop. Both patterns call for an eventual huge drop.
Comment: gold 4 hr

I still feel we have a little bit more consolidation to do and then one more push up before a bigger drop.
Comment: Jnug 4 hr

So I am kind of thinking Jnug may behave in this manner
Hi. Why do you think gold will re-test the recent higher levels and then crash? Why, as in is it a wave count, or do you have a real-world reason? Any target for the crash? Thanks.
SalN I_dont_know_but
@I_dont_know_but, I used to think and rely on trying to figure out the "Real World" reasons and try to apply it to gold and other things. Then I started to see that sometimes price responds the way it is supposed to and sometimes it does not and does not seem to make sense. Instead of beating my head against that wall, I tried to clear my biases and rethink the perspective. So I personally believe that the patterns AND wave count AND cycles are going to play out however the supercomputer algorithums have already determined and the real world stuff simply comes into play when the pattern needs it to. Not as simple as it sounds but has allowed me to make much better trading decisions and also has allowed me to stay calm if I happen to be early on a trade.
@SalN, Ok. Well, I'll let you in on a 'secret'. I too believe the gold price could 'crash' (but earlier than the time frame you mention, maybe 2021), but the reason for the crash would be the same reason for a bank run. The gold price you trade is for XAUUSD, but this contract and the likes of GLD have a very thin covering of physical gold. The only reason I can see the 'gold' price crashing in the early 2020s is because there'll be a run on the paper gold, into the physical gold, so investors will be selling their paper for physical (much like bank depositors taking their 'deposit' from a bank in order to get hard cash).

After that crash, the paper markets will be no more, and the systems are already in place (in Europe and China) for physical-only gold prices, which would be at least 10X what they are now, probably more.

So, if you're making some gains on your trades, perhaps tuck away some of your profits into gold coins, I don't think you'' regret it. But don't wait for that crash price to buy, as no one will be selling physical then.
SalN I_dont_know_but
@I_dont_know_but, Yes I am saving and waiting to buy physical gold and a little silver as well. But I do want to wait. Not sure about that take on no one will be selling. I am thinking that if it goes that low then people will be too scared to buy it and in fact hate it. I found your answer to be very interesting. I would never attempt to come up with such an answer. All I see is the chart (in my opinion) predicting much lower prices before the big move to whatever. So maybe you are absolutely spot on as to why it drops, but the wave analysis shows that something is going to push it lower. IT is almost as if the charts can somewhat predict the future. The reason will be whatever the reason happens to be when the charts show that it is time for the next move down to begin.
@SalN, Thanks for the chart.

>I am thinking that if it goes that low then people will be too scared to buy it and in fact hate it.

The 'it' would be XAUUSD and GLD, not physical gold. The period of time when this is happening is likely to involve multiple mega-bank failures, especially in Europe. People will not trust the system, but they will trust hard assets, especially gold. Good luck with your trades.
SalN I_dont_know_but
@I_dont_know_but, As far as a long term bottom target. Well I kind of do have a target. But that may change a bit depending on how high we go …$1360's? $1380's? 1400? I am thinking at least low $600 range.

Here is the monthly gold chart with what I believe is the incomplete A, B, C pattern from the 2011 highs.