MQP

MQP 23 WINTER IS COMING DRAFT 4

Long
FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
HEADER - Data mining eliminated "24" and eliminated most blind spots for 23. This is draft 4.

SUMMARY - After checking all my boxes, this is the move. All that is left is getting to December. From here on out, I will discuss the core fundamentals of my gold price bull market thesis and all the the technicals involve from price regressions point of view on all time scales.

DETAIILS - Every time inflation has gone above 5%, Fed has had to raise rates ABOVE inflation to stop inflation . That is not debatable. How much of that statement is useful for forecasting prices of anything is very debatable. But national debt is at 130% and climbing. Remember the "balance the budget"political ads we used to see 15 years ago??? We don't see those anymore nowadays. My position is U.S. federal budgets is a political non-starter (or political suicide) for today's politicians. What this means is that I the Fed is bluffing with its "defeat inflation" narrative. Hence, the question is when will they pivot? The answer is when there's enough pain economically and politically. Are we there yet? No we are not. A key metric that can reference this answer is U.S. households balance sheet . What I I understand is that it can hold for 6 more months (if overall economic conditions do not deteriorate much more). That said, the Fed wants to bump rates another 2-2.5% AFTER 4 MONTHS OF THE MOST TIGHTENING THE FED HAS EVER DEPLOYED IN IT HISTORY. The chart above is technical price position forecast for next 6 months. And I will go on from there later. We have until Thanksgiving to work out this trade. This is a higher conviction hands down vs. Feb-March trade.
Comment: NOTES:
1. so we need to pay attention to payrolls from here to December
2. ISM service and manufacturing
3. CPI and PPI
4. Fed meetings in July, September, November, December and August, too (Jackson Hole)
Comment: 5. the information I am getting from people in the know is that this contraction (recession) should come strong and hard
6. economic conditions will force the Fed to "reposition before end of 2022"
7. that's my story and I'm sticking to it (until it changes enough to change the story)
Comment:
Comment: FOR CHART ABOVE -
1. from viewpoint of price channels, that's what I see
2. so first up some more weakness in July by 7/8 NFP, but definitely should be complete BEFORE 7/27 FOMC
Comment: 3. then run up to Jackson Hole in late August, maybe even into first half of September before September meeting