Yesterday, ADP employment data was released. The report showed that the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 103,000 in November, less than the expected 130,000, and also less than the previous revised value of 106,000.Four consecutive months fell short of expectations, adding new evidence to the cooling of the US labor market.
At the same time, wage growth has also cooled further. In November, the wages of those who stayed in the job rose by 5.6% from the same period last year. The growth rate fell for the 14th consecutive month and fell to the weakest growth level since September 2021.
Coupled with the announcement on Tuesday that the number of JOLTs job vacancies in October fell sharply by 8.733 million, much lower than the previous value of 9.33 million, these signals of a weak job market are gradually reducing the probability of the Fed raising interest rates.
Today's number of unemployment benefits and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data will determine the further development direction of the market in the future.
After the skyrocketing and plummeting on Monday, the two days began to fluctuate at a low level. On the one hand, it was to repair the oversold graphics, and on the other hand, it was also waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls data to determine the trend.
At present, the data released this week are all in favor of gold, so the probability of gold rebounding is still relatively large.
Therefore, under the current downward trend, we can't sell blindly today. We need to observe the resistance of 2035-2040. If we break through this range, gold may reach the vicinity of 2050 again.
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