XAUUSD Is it starting the new cyclical Mega Rally?

Gold (XAUUSD) broke the previous All Time High (ATH) yesterday as expectations over a June rate cut intensified. In order to determine our short-term strategies on Gold we often tend to look at the long-term time-frames for trend recognition.

This time we look at the 1W chart and in particular how Gold's previous Cycle compares to today. We could look at those from a 1M (monthly) standpoint but we are particularly interested in making a case of the 1W RSI as it plays a critical role here.

As you can see Gold's previous Cycle from 2013 - 2020 is so far highly similar and symmetrical with the recent Cycle of 2020 - 2024. The current ATH break is slightly diverging from the September 04 2017 High as Gold didn't make an ATH then but so did the December 04 2023 High, which was priced purely on fundamentals (geopolitical unrest).

You can clearly see the RSI's key role here as despite Gold's new ATH, the RSI has only entered its 4-year Resistance Zone. On those terms, it is no different than the September 04 2017 High. As a result, if we don't see a considerable extension of the current rally, for example a 1M candle closing above the Resistance Zone, it is more likely to see a correction back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). If not and the rate cut expectations prevail, the Mega Rally Phase should start earlier on this Cycle. And as always it will be brutally bullish with the 1W MA50 in support.


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