Nickonomics

Gold: Triangle still unresolved; Entry levels refined

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
The US employment report was mixed. Payrolls posted a 215,000 jobs gain, around June's level, while analysts had expected 225,000. The previous number was upwardly revised to 231,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, while wage growth came out at 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous month. According to a latest Reuters poll, the median probability for septermber rate hike estimated by US primary dealers is 60% vs 55% in June. The number for December meeting stands at 80%. 9 of 19 dealers expect two rate hikes this year.

The short-term reaction has been very volatile, with violent swings in both directions. The price of Gold             has tested both trendlines that form the Triangle pattern . There is a clear 5-wave             advance that usually sets a new uptrend. The key support cluster is projected @1089. Our approach is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close either above 1099 to generate a buy signal; or below 1082 for a sell signal. While the intraday chart to the right suggests higher prices based on last swing's wave structure, the long-term trend is, obviously, down.
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I am looking for what is next. I see XAUUSD above the resistance area now, which I think is now support. With people shorting based on the daily chart, this may add fuel to the bullish flame when the shorts recover. What do you think?
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My support zone is 1127-1133. I expect some buying from here. I made a private chart with key levels, you can watch them live:
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