MQP PRESENTS - THE WAY THIS ENDS FINAL DRAFT
HEADER - Not with a bang but with a whimper. T.S. ELLIOT.
SUMMARY - Despite being more capable at forecasting then I've ever been, I don't see a way forward for this type of work bc of my personal failures. So this is the way my work ends, and this post the final ending.
DETAILS - This will finish the run to 2150-ish in 5-20 to 6-20 window, as originally forecasted on 11-10-2023 in RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6:
LAST NOTE - As taught not to do in ancient Confucian stories, I have hugged the tree and waited for the rabbit for seven years. The rabbit did come many more times and I also caught it many more times. But each time it escaped me because of my inability to discipline myself.
SUMMARY - Despite being more capable at forecasting then I've ever been, I don't see a way forward for this type of work bc of my personal failures. So this is the way my work ends, and this post the final ending.
DETAILS - This will finish the run to 2150-ish in 5-20 to 6-20 window, as originally forecasted on 11-10-2023 in RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6:
LAST NOTE - As taught not to do in ancient Confucian stories, I have hugged the tree and waited for the rabbit for seven years. The rabbit did come many more times and I also caught it many more times. But each time it escaped me because of my inability to discipline myself.
Comment:
NOTES 2 - 4TH BOX SHOULD BREAK.
A. if you replay, proce is in 4th box
B. it's going to break
C. into what looks like an ascending flag pattern
A. if you replay, proce is in 4th box
B. it's going to break
C. into what looks like an ascending flag pattern
Comment:
D. like this:
Comment:
E. no, the late boxes are wrong, so like this:
Comment:
F. they likely need more adjustment this time next week
Comment:
NOTES 3 - 4TH BOX SHOULD STILL BREAK?
a) if you replay chart at top, it dropped to quickly 2032 after 2048
b) reaction to the first break of 4th box stated in "NOTES 2", is not great
c) as of right now, still inconclusive, but this opens the first bear route possible
d) like this:
a) if you replay chart at top, it dropped to quickly 2032 after 2048
b) reaction to the first break of 4th box stated in "NOTES 2", is not great
c) as of right now, still inconclusive, but this opens the first bear route possible
d) like this:
Comment:
Comment:
e) continuing with chart above...
f) I am not sure what the odds are, the 15-day set up says there's no reason why it can't happen
g) of course, everything longer than 15 days disagrees
h) so it's a wait and see moment
f) I am not sure what the odds are, the 15-day set up says there's no reason why it can't happen
g) of course, everything longer than 15 days disagrees
h) so it's a wait and see moment
Comment:
i) to sum it up, 4th box and 5th box seems like it will continue to hold from where we stand right now
Comment:
NOTES 4 - 5/11 10.45 AM ET 2010-IS TAG AND MICRO MEAN REVERSION
a) so made it to 2010, but with more style than could be seen 27 hours ago
b) what now??
c) first, micro mean reversion
d) so from here to 3 AM ET 5/19 IS SIDEWAYS TO DOWN
e) can it break lower? YES, (it's 2016 as I type) BUT 2030 retag is likelier FIRST BEFORE LOWER
a) so made it to 2010, but with more style than could be seen 27 hours ago
b) what now??
c) first, micro mean reversion
d) so from here to 3 AM ET 5/19 IS SIDEWAYS TO DOWN
e) can it break lower? YES, (it's 2016 as I type) BUT 2030 retag is likelier FIRST BEFORE LOWER
Comment:
f) I meant to post these notes 140 min ago
Comment:
NOTES 5 - 7:23 AM ET, SKIPPED MEAN REVERSION, NOW 2004.XX
a) I think 2000-ish minutes ago?
a) I think 2000-ish minutes ago?
Comment:
b) wanted to post an update on skipping micro mean reversion but didn't have time
c) intermediately speaking, we are 4th box heading for 5th box (replay chart at top)
c) intermediately speaking, we are 4th box heading for 5th box (replay chart at top)
Comment:
d) today is Friday May 12, you have 1 week to make this entry
e) so let's look at support
e) so let's look at support
Comment:
Comment:
f) for chart above: the box is now to Friday 5/19, 7:30 AM ET
g) it's 1992-2004, 80 90 minute bars out
g) it's 1992-2004, 80 90 minute bars out
Comment:
h) new price boxes look like this:
i)
i)
Comment:
j) my entry as it stands, is ON FRIDAY 5/19, probably 8:30AM-12:30 PM ET
Comment:
NOTES 6 - 2.43 PM ET MON 5/15
1) no change in plans
2) the trade looks like a buy and hold to 5/29
3) I am not planning on detailing this move at this time bc...
4) original forecasted boxes seem likely to hold
1) no change in plans
2) the trade looks like a buy and hold to 5/29
3) I am not planning on detailing this move at this time bc...
4) original forecasted boxes seem likely to hold
Comment:
5) rest of week should feature another 4-5 instead of a 1-2
Comment:
6) that is to say a lower low than 2000 is still in the cards for Friday 5/19
Comment:
Notes 7 Tues 5.16 at 2008.xx touching 2003 a while ago...
A) it no longer should be a 4-5
B) it should be a 1-2 or a stick save for next 77 hours
A) it no longer should be a 4-5
B) it should be a 1-2 or a stick save for next 77 hours
Comment:
C) 2000 should hold
D) if under 1995 for more than 4 hours, it's a bad sign for this route
E) so I see bounce today, wed, into thurs and final check down for Friday
D) if under 1995 for more than 4 hours, it's a bad sign for this route
E) so I see bounce today, wed, into thurs and final check down for Friday
Comment:
NOTES 8 - 11:15 AM ET TUES 5/16 TOUCHING 1998
A) first, classical TA:
A) first, classical TA:
Comment:
B) for chart above:
Comment:
C) obviously breaking diagonal support is not good
D) but it's really not over if it did, SO...
E) the horizontal 1980 marker is the "stick-save" floor
F) that means if the the machines drive it down to 1980...
G) bulls generally have 4 hours to RAISE AND HOLD price above the diagonal
H) in order to hold the regression picture to favor bulls
D) but it's really not over if it did, SO...
E) the horizontal 1980 marker is the "stick-save" floor
F) that means if the the machines drive it down to 1980...
G) bulls generally have 4 hours to RAISE AND HOLD price above the diagonal
H) in order to hold the regression picture to favor bulls
Comment:
I) this is why I said earlier that more than 4 hours under 1995 would be a bad sign for the bull route
Comment:
K) so to get this question out of the way... what would happen if bulls fail here?
L) price would fall to 1980, and hold there for at least 8 hours before a dead-cat bounce
M) that set up would feature 1880 as the first target
L) price would fall to 1980, and hold there for at least 8 hours before a dead-cat bounce
M) that set up would feature 1880 as the first target
Comment:
N) IN ORDER TO STOP BEAR ROUTE ODDS FROM RISING, THIS MUST HAPPEN SOON:
Comment:
O) for chart above:
P) so the FIRST 3 BOXES IN CHART ABOVE really have to happen 48 HOURS from now
Q) so that's roughly 2025 tag by Thursday around 12 PM ET
R) that is what I meant by a 1-2 (as in elliot wave higher low), as opposed to a 4-5
P) so the FIRST 3 BOXES IN CHART ABOVE really have to happen 48 HOURS from now
Q) so that's roughly 2025 tag by Thursday around 12 PM ET
R) that is what I meant by a 1-2 (as in elliot wave higher low), as opposed to a 4-5
Comment:
S) while I am posting this I just saw it tag 1996
T) unless diagonal breaks convincingly, bulls have 16 hours from now to start the bounce
U) so about 4 AM ET Wednesday to start this move to 2025
T) unless diagonal breaks convincingly, bulls have 16 hours from now to start the bounce
U) so about 4 AM ET Wednesday to start this move to 2025
Comment:
NOTES 9 - 2:45 PM ET TUESDAY AFTERNOON
a) tagged 1984 and now 1990 as I type
b) if you replay chart at top we are still in 5th box and it's holding
c) basically, if get get UNDER THAT BOX AND HOLD UNDER, it's a problem
d) so not yet, but so far, the reaction to 1984 is not impressive
e) this pushes stick-save reaction to 1975-ish BUT IT HAS TO BE STICK SAVE LIKE THIS:
a) tagged 1984 and now 1990 as I type
b) if you replay chart at top we are still in 5th box and it's holding
c) basically, if get get UNDER THAT BOX AND HOLD UNDER, it's a problem
d) so not yet, but so far, the reaction to 1984 is not impressive
e) this pushes stick-save reaction to 1975-ish BUT IT HAS TO BE STICK SAVE LIKE THIS:
Comment:
Comment:
f) for chart above:
g) so time under 1995 has to look like the previous ellipse but in reverse
h) AND...
g) so time under 1995 has to look like the previous ellipse but in reverse
h) AND...
Comment:
i) it increases odds of annoying 4-5 like this:
Comment:
j) we will know more this time tomorrow
k) and definitely by Friday at 12PM ET (70 hours from now)
l) insofar though, original forecast still holding
m) though bulls need to show up soon
k) and definitely by Friday at 12PM ET (70 hours from now)
l) insofar though, original forecast still holding
m) though bulls need to show up soon
Comment:
NOTES 10 - 11:38 PM ET, TUES NIGHT, BEARS FORMING 36 HOUR MOVE TO 1936
a) so bulls have not shown any interest at turning this thing up
b) they have 6 hours to stop bears from pushing this under 1980, 1974, all the way to 1936
a) so bulls have not shown any interest at turning this thing up
b) they have 6 hours to stop bears from pushing this under 1980, 1974, all the way to 1936
Comment:
NOTES 11 - 6.24 AM ET WED, TAGGED 1983, DANGER OF 1936 STILL NOT OVER
a) I am very interested in current regression formation
b) bc there's a big question in wave order for a bear setup that morphed...
c) from a previously bull setup
d) at what point does it become a bear favorite? 🤔
a) I am very interested in current regression formation
b) bc there's a big question in wave order for a bear setup that morphed...
c) from a previously bull setup
d) at what point does it become a bear favorite? 🤔
Comment:
NOTES 12 - TAGGED 1980 AND 1974 AS EXPECTED, NOW WHAT?
a) it's looking like 1936 if bulls don't make a STRONG MOVE UP
b) defined as 2008+ AND HOLD
a) it's looking like 1936 if bulls don't make a STRONG MOVE UP
b) defined as 2008+ AND HOLD
Comment:
c) so at this point in time ...
d) 12:20 PM ET WED 5/17,
e) bearish outcome should be favorite until things change
d) 12:20 PM ET WED 5/17,
e) bearish outcome should be favorite until things change
Comment:
NOTES 13 - THURS 5/18 6:18 AM ET, BULL IS (LIKELY) DEAD, THIS POST HAS ENDED
a) miracle not withstanding, it looks like 1936 is next
b) question is when?
c) it's 1978.xx right now
d) odds say by MONDAY U.S. MARKETS CLOSE (or earlier)
a) miracle not withstanding, it looks like 1936 is next
b) question is when?
c) it's 1978.xx right now
d) odds say by MONDAY U.S. MARKETS CLOSE (or earlier)
Comment:
NOTES 14 - SO HERE IS THE EPILOGUE DUE TO THE BEAR OUTCOME:
A. 7.19 AM ET ON 5/08
B. thats what it looks like right now at 2032.xx
C. while the post-spike correction looks like 4 maybe 5 days too slow