GOLD 16 HOUR TREND #3

INTRODUCTION - This is the second 02/12/24, 15-min bar, ultra-detailed, 16-hour trend map for FXOPEN XAUUSD spot gold ticker. This chart is expected to be useful until first vertical dashed line or 16 hours. If price disagrees meaningfully - such as when price leaves boxes - then this map expires IMMEDIATELY, If price agrees, then recasting is required after 16 hours.

DETAILS - Post #2B saw price reverse from first box. In this critical moment, bears want to kill the bull market for good. They intend to go to 2000 before Wednesday.

WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS MATERIAL IS NOT GOING TO HELP YOU.

Comment:

BOXES:

Comment:

8:50 AM ET 02/13, after CPI at 2007.xx notes:
1) obviously it never even made the first box
2) went up, as if mirror image...
3) but now reconnected with bear route
4) so?
5) I have no idea
6) by doing this, it has destroyed both routes for the short term
7) literally going no where

Comment:

2/13 9:49 AM ET, So let me close this post by explaining why it's "no where".
a) so trend maps said last night that price would make 2000 tonight
b) it's 9:50 AM and bid/ask is already 1994/1995
c) so it's more bearish price AND faster, this is both true
d) but the move to 2032 before spiking down put twisting trends into everything under five day period
e) so 2 things can happen to solve this twist:
1) either bears push to 1975 TODAY to break this twist bearishly
2) or they fail and its back to 2030-2040 a week later
f) the short term is very bearish this is true
g) but bears are at the floor of important vol limits
h) so the odds favor sideways again 5 days out above 2020
i) that's what that means
j) there's going tobe something final unless bears make it to 1975

Comment:

k) typo on j) there's NOT going to be something final unless bears make 1975
l) this would put a buffer to stop bulls from swinging back

Comment:

m) but if they cannot do 1975, the swing is going to come 2-3 days at the most
n) by 5 days out you are going sideways from 2020 trying to get to 2040
o) then?
p) then no final decision on anything until a few days after 03/20 FOMC
q) so expect nothing to resolve this until at least 03/21 or 03/25

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WED, 10:01 AM ET, 1986.xx, FWIW, we can get to 1958 today.

Comment:

a) so breaking to 1985 earlier this morning sets up a 30 pt drop from here
b) the zone 1955-1963
c) this can complete today

Comment:

10:39 AM ET STILL 1987.05, floor should be a tad lower
d) so upper bound of move down should 1967
e) but lower bound should be 1947
f) so zone is 1947-1967
g) my guess is 1952

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Comment:

h) for chart above, there's one scenario I didn't consider bc it seems too bearish
i) that is if bulls have no fight left
j) then 1952 gets hit by 2 PM - it's 11:16 AM now - so 165 min worst case scenario for bulls

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1:00 PM ET 1994.XX

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1:19 PM WRAP UP:

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THIS POST IS DONE, FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, #4: