XAUUSD: 4H Death Cross is triggering a sell off.

Gold formed a Death Cross on 4H turning bearish both on 4H (RSI = 38.637, MACD = -8.760, ADX = 19.351) and the 1D time frames (RSI = 40.973, MACD = -1.230, ADX = 37.908). If the February 02 Top is anything like April 2022 top as we brought to you with the following idea, then a break down of the 4H Death Cross of that period and comparison with today's may be indicative of the price action that will follow:


Both Death Cross patterns were formed while the RSI was on HL, a Bullish Divergence with the candles' LL. This indicates that one last rebound to the 4H MA50 will follow with a rejection down to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We are selling with TP = 1,825.

Both falls from the top up to the Low before the Death Cross were exactly the same (-5.25%). The rebound that was rejected on the 4H MA50 on April 29th 2022 dropped another -6.80%, below the 1D MA200. It never broke over the 0.618 Fibonacci or the 4H MA200. If this periods new fall is of the same magnitude as -5.25% was, then the price can drop to even 1,760. But best to settle for a TP = 1,775 (over the 1D MA200) in case the 1.382 Fibonacci is crossed.

The fractal is negated with a bullish trigger above the 4H MA200. In that scenario the bullish trend changes back to long term buy and we will long TP = 1,950.


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