MQP 17H DRAFT 1 THROUGH MAY 9TH

HEADER - This is first draft of17H I've been talking about in previous posts.

SUMMARY - With close under 1900 yesterday, this is next move for 17H. Because of the 60/40 swings, we will take this 10 days at a time.

DETAILS - The decision will be Monday morning, but bulls are running out of time to change 1920 ceiling. This means that 17H is 2:1 OR BETTER vs 17G. Next move down would be 1845 if shallow, 1825 if deep (the first bold box). Odds favor price only hitting ONE OF TWO BOLD BOXES. This means that if this moves to 1820s, then 1920s is the celing for the following leg up. If 1840s hold, then 1945-55 is the ceiling for next leg up. Of course, I never say never.

STRATEGY - I am watching Monday NY open like a hawk to short the first move down. The bottom should be WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN 4 HOURS AHEAD OF FOMC, which is 2PM ET, 1PM CENTRAL.

Comment:

1:05 AM ET MONDAY, 1883 already.

It's moving a bit too fast. Generally speaking, you get a second bounce to 1920-ish before it really breaks hard. So what now? First, please understand that 17G and 17H is just the same move shifted DOWN AND RIGHT ON THE CHART. Tonight, I am getting a shift back closer to 17G (even though it's moving faster down than 17H), just with less vol. So that implies that 1870s hold for Monday, and we bounce to 1920s again right before FOMC before crashing hard. To sum it all up:

1) we have not bottomed
2) if we keep falling, the bottom will be right before FOMC, and then swing up hard
3) if we bounce to 1920s again, it will take 50-60 hours to get back to the level...
4) which would be right before FOMC too, BUT THEN SWING DOWN HARD

Comment:

5) in all routes, gold runs up HARD mid-to-late May
6) we will know a lot more after Monday...
7) especially after NEXT Monday 5/09

Comment:

1:30 AM ET

1) It's likely that the route will be a combination of all those
2) That combination would be stair case down, but a bit faster than 17H (this post)

Comment:

1:50 AM ET

3) No, it doesn't have to be that way.
4) Odds favor AN UNEVEN STAIR CASE DOWN.
5) For example?
6) New low 1870 Monday, but run up to 1915-1917 Wed morning before FOMC.
7) And then crash hard after FOMC.

Comment:

Comment:

UPDATE 11:05 AM ET MONDAY.

1. So price has real bearish momentum right now.
2. This means that price will hit levels of first 5 boxes early.
3. IT ALSO MEANS THAT REGRESSIONS AFTER FOMC CHANGE TO SIDEWAYS INSTEAD OF SPIKE UP.
4. So we need a new update (17i) in 48 hours.

Comment:

5. I'm kinda busy right now, so I might not be able to deliver one meaningfully.
6. What I see right now is sideways price action between 1825 and 1865 BETWEEN 5/4 AND 5/13, no real big move either direction in that timeframe.

Comment:

HERE IS LATEST UPDATE AND CONTINUOUSLY UPDATING DEMO
www.tradingview.com/...ATIO-3-4-1-HOUR-BAR/