BTC ABC Corrective Wave | Weak 382 bounce | 128MA | Futures data

Good morning TV,
It's been a while since I posted a public video analysis. Glad to be back and share with you my opinion and analysis regarding this space. For those of you who don't know me, my name is Amol and I've been a trader for 11 years. I started off my trading as a high school kid logging into my Dad's account in 2008. Thinking I was hot sh*t, I made a couple of good trades but then financial crisis started kicking in and things got worse on that account. Long story short, I lost a bunch of my Dads money and felt horrible. I made it a point to learn how to trade, how to invest, read market sentiment, understand market data, structure, technicals, fundamentals etc. I became thirsty for knowledge in trading and investing. Fast forward, after years of equities trading, I started trading crypto in late 2016 and have been here since and I'm in it for the long-run. Anyway, I share my analysis with you every chance I get so here we go..

BTC/USD January 18 Analysis:
- The 128MA (daily) has been used heavily in the equity markets to gauge long-term trend shifts and possible areas of bounce/support. You can see on BTC that it was used quite effectively. Even on the side of resistance it was used perfectly. However, the fact that we are so far extended away from 128MA and can't come close to retrace when bouncing up shows severe weakness in the BTC asset.
- And just like the 128MA the 382 fibs and the ABC corrective wave shown in the video give you an idea that we have not had such a weak bounce in Bitcoin in all of 2018. Meaning when price fell from 6500 to 3100. We should have at least climbed into 4500-5000 range and then gotten rejected on the way down. Again- this shows the utter dominance from the bears driving the price down and disallowing it from coming up
- The Order Blocks shown are a great example to watch price be cripped. Staying under the 50% fib of the current OB is again a weak sign for BTC.

All in all, unless BTC climbs up toward $5000 over the next few days/week, it will undoubtedly have a higher probability of breaking down than up. Best case scenario is that $3100 was the bottom and we spend months in $3000 range for accumulation. But we won't know this until we create higher lows and stay here for weeks/months.

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Hope you enjoyed the analysis. Give me a thumbs up!

-Amol

Comment:

Each of the verticals is the BTC futures expiration contract for CME. You can see a majority of the time futures contracts were short and were more than likely manipulating price to meet their short targets. Driving the price down near contract expiration to meet their targets is called "banging the close". A market manipulation technique used to ensure max. profits on their contracts.

Comment:

The scariest thing about all of this is the Monthly RSI. You can see that in 2015 bear market we did not even get to the oversold levels. In fact, we only got to where we are today which is the 44 point marker. Now this is definitely a good sign that we're not accelerating down through that support. But the bad news about this is, if the price for BTC were to start heading down, we'd more than likely rip through that RSI and as you can see it is open air for about 15 points till we get to oversold zone on the monthly. This kind of drop could only spell capitulation for us. It would bring the entire crypto market to its knees but also give Bitcoin a chance to survive, get weak hands off the boat and maybe some smart money could pick it up at a discounted premium. Just a thought to keep in mind.

Comment:

Clear view of this chart. Notice the weakness of the current bounce and its inability to barely get to 382 fib.