Bitcoin "halves bull”under zero-sum game

I've drawn a trend line that connects the 2017 high to the 2019 high. We use the three-line strategy, one of the criteria is the trend line breakthrough, so now the macd long trend confirmed, the average support confirmed, if the trend line breakthrough, we want to execute the long strategy. Some people may not understand why I am bearish but let everyone execute a long strategy.


But the implementation of three-line integration, we are not blind. I also gave three reference trends. A, B, C, respectively, are the breakthrough punch, the breakthrough back step and the breakthrough failure. Since the weekly line cannot be closed until 8 o 'clock on Monday morning, the cycle is relatively long. You should be aware that even if you break the trend line this week, there is still the possibility of failure.

For the three trends of ABC, if viewed from the probability perspective, the direct short stake accounts for 33%, that is to say, the risk of chasing the high ground is 66%. So how does it work?

I am personally inclined to, break into the market, back to the low position. That is, do not full warehouse operation, batch add warehouse. If the breakout is successful, there are two reference highs, $14,000 and $20,000. The short line can only go here, higher position we need to continue to observe. If the breakthrough fails, then we are running as we judged earlier.

As a simple logic, if you were involved in bitcoin transactions in 2016, remember how many people saw $20,000? Most people think the $20,000 goal can be reached by the end of the 2017 century, right? The law of the market is always a few people make money. So when the market was in a frenzy at the end of '2017, did most people see $100,000 or more?

I'm not a digital currency expert, but I believe in rules.



Opinion: so far, I remain skeptical about this bull market. So I also advise the bulls to be rational. If you break the trend line, take a small part, but pay attention to the stop-loss setting.