XBTUSD.P
Firstly before discussing my TA Idea, I'd like to emphasize: although this TA Idea might sound biased to you or to others, TAs are basically spotting trends and patterns and using them to predict the future price (in this case for BTC) as closely as possible, as are other TAs out there. No TAs that tries to predict the price/trend can be completely objective IMO. My aim is only to share my predictions for an interesting read.
Back to the TA: looking at the Daily chart, I've drawn the support trendlines since the dip from Mid Nov 2018 till 30 May 2019. We can clearly see a formed U-shape from these trendlines, reminiscent of the Cup Formation. We also see the Accum/Dist & the OBV indicators showing the volumes following a similar U-shape trend.
From 30 May onwards, the price clearly broke through the parabolic trend form the latter part of the Cup Pattern. We've witnessed 2 major pullbacks: a ~11% drop from $9000 to $7950, and another ~10% drop from $8570 to $7750. This can be interpreted as the Handle Pattern forming. Usually, the Handle should be fully Formed within the top half of the Cup Pattern, similar to a correction which should be a ~30-40% retrace from the top.
Looking at the Snapshot above (looking closer at the Handel pattern), a crucial testing area would be within the next few days, the 2nd LH - where the price will be testing $7900-$8000 resistance area. If it gathers enough buying volume, it might be possible to break out of the triangle pattern I have drawn. However, I believe that (1): the market currently still lacks enough buying volume to break through the Handle Pattern and start a new upwards trend; (2): The Cup Pattern was formed for a whole 6-7 months, so I expect the Handle Pattern to at least last for 2 weeks+.
Looking at the descending triangle pattern that I expect will occur, the price can go as low as testing the $7000-$7200 support level within the next week. I expect a strong breakout after gathering enough buying volume from the low levels, and there goes the continuation pattern of the Cup and Handle Pattern. We can expect a magnitude as strong as +$4000, right up towards the $10,000 level, for the breakout as it is expected to be similar to the difference from the Cup bottom (~$3200) to the breakout level (~$7200) if the Cup and Handle Pattern works out perfectly.
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