KongTrading

$BTC - #Bitcoin-Daily-Update #4 - Day trader explains

Long
BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
Hello Lads and Ladies,

Welcome back to TJ's TA sessions.- The Daily BTC Update

What happened in the last 24h?
Once again, a beautiful and volatile day that we had here. We started out with a beautiful pump, nice volume behind it as well, against most of CT who were shorting, we made nice gains and hit 4k range as mentioned last night. We also elaborated that we needed to stay and close inside 4k before looking at 4.4k again. If not, then we will test our support again. Which we are kind of on the way to right now. After the pump, most of the volume and volatility died and we had some occasional pumps here and there. YET, we have not seen a BART dump yet and are rather following a small downtrend on smaller timeframes, which should not be too hard to break.

Most important S/R right now?
3434 3550 3666 3730 3820 3950 4077 4123 4169 4382 4658

Gained lost %?
Since the opening of the new daily, we wicked down -2.53%, but gained 5.65%

MarketCap?
Total MarektCap is 127 Billion - gained 1 -
Of wich BTC is 68 Billion - gained 1 -
With a Dominance of 53.8%

Volatility?
The 30d avg Volatility is 5.52%
- -0.01 -

Shorts/Longs?
Shorts - 34.5k (danger-zone)
Longs - 26.7k (solid)
- S -1.8 / L +0.2 -

Funding?
The last 3 funding rates added -> -0.26%
- +0.02 -> gained a small amount -

Momentum?
The TJ-Momentum is still red but very low. As soon as we see it green, it will be a rising momentum and it will be a bullish sign for Bitcoin. Until then we need to keep a tighter Stop Loss and lower leverage as well as margin.

Volume?
We are STILL waiting for a big volume breakout. Today we see right now still little lower volume than yesterday, yet the body of this candle is also way smaller. For this one would be great to close green with a solid body around 3900. The volume could stay the same as well, still waiting for the big move.

TJ-MF/StochRSI levels?
TJ-MoneyFlow - We are seeing a nice green, yet still below the 0 line, its basically showing us another divergence in volume and momentum for the price.
StochRSI (still trending up)
K(blue) - 73
D(orange) - 48

Divergences?
I am still seeing the volume going sideways bit the price going down. The same with the price going down and the TJ-Stoch going up as well as the TJ-MoneyFlow continuing up. A big move is still incoming, indicators are rather showing us the possiblity for a move upwards to test the resistance at 4.4k.

Market Structure?
We are fighting the bearish sentiment and fighting for that 4k level very much. Right now, we have to be careful with a possible inverted hammer on daily, which would lead us probably more down to 3700 or even 3600. Should we close above 3900 at least, it would be a solid close and we might continue to fight for 4k. Even on smaller timeframes a simple BART formation is not very likely YET, It seems like we need a little more of those 100-200$ candles.

Overall?
We are seeing some nice changes behind the scenes, which leaves us with a POSSIBILITY not certainty yet for a nice bounce. Should we not see a bounce I will be heading for that nice Adam and eve double bottom on the daily, similar like we had it in the summer when we made that 5738 low, the rallied up to 8k. We have again an insane funding rate, which is making me feel good about my long position being below entry, giving me those small gains as well. Staying above that 61.8% line is pretty good right now. Adding to this once again to simply watch out for bearish signs, but right now the scenes behind the chart are getting ready for something.

What do we want?
We want to stay above and close the daily above 61.8%, also would be nice to stay above 50% this day which would be 3922$ and close solid. A little more volume than yesterday would be a nice thing to have at the end of the day.

Position?
Keeping the Long position. Still not convinced of a short position. STILL READY for a possible test of 3400$, without panicking.

Entry at 3.9k is ok
Entry at 3.8 is good
Entry below 3.7 is very good

Let me know in the comments and leave a like if you like the infos and want to see it daily.

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Cheers, TJ

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