Not financial advice. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk.
TLDR: $5200 is our current resistance to break to identify a continuation upwards, otherwise likelihood is down to mid to low 4000s.
Apologies ahead of time for the busy busy chart. I see about half a dozen places bitcoin can go so I'm going to do my best to explain all the scenarios.
Bitcoin has been consolidating a bit up here despite the red selling pressure that ensued about 5 days ago. I wouldn't say this is a "bears are in control" candle but it does show that people are starting to take profits or enter new short positions here. So what does that mean exactly? Let's dive right in because there's a lot going in on this chart.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin $7800
First is the obvious cup that has formed. One could say we're forming a handle here. There are a lot of people out there (retail investors) that are saying that our heaviest resistance is between 5800 and 6200 (I agree, by the way). Problem is, if you will be trading this as a cup and handle formation, the target is closer to $7800. It sure would take a lot to get us up there, especially after the 25% day we just had about 2 weeks ago. I consider this the lowest probability outcome.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin $4300
Looking at a shorter timeframe, I see two potential targets in our midst. It all really depends on if we're in a 3 or a 5 wave downward pattern from 5475 to 4923 to 5191. Using that as our 1-2 wave, I'm predicting we're likely heading to around $4300 (bright green box). I see this as our highest probability trade. First because there's a nice trendline there (which we flew by on April 2) and second because that was our major resistance when we were in the 3000 range. we failed to break $4200-$4300 around 3 times. No reason to really think we won't go back there.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin $3750
If (when?) we break 4300, I'm looking at that trendline at the bottom (in yellow) to be our strongest support. I will surely buy there. Currently that price is around $3600 but it's rising gradually. By the time we get there ( assuming we do ), it will probably be closer to $3750 unless we get a straight red candle to oblivion. Possible, I suppose.
Scenario 4: Bitcoin $6250
I actually think this is possible. This would take us into our "Heaviest Resistance" territory, but if you treat this push up from 3125 as a 5 wave impulse rather than a 3 wave correction, our target becomes $6250. It's always possible to get what they call a "truncated 5th" where it is unable to reach the algo target but that target remains at $6262.50. I say likelihood for this scenario being around 35% and it does depend on the ultra short term break of $5200 which we've been struggling. Breaking $5200 does make the probability of this trade a little higher.
Scenario 5: Bitcoin $2500
Not shown on this chart however if we break through that yellow trendline, we're in lots of trouble. We'd be looking at the cyan trendline to be our support which could take us to a "double bottom" depending on how long it takes but more than likely we would be in a crypto depression if that level breaks and the selling continues.
It's funny how just a few hundred million dollars can make everybody turn so bullish. You do have to keep things in perspective. Bitcoin has done +75% since the $3125 low. That's something to think about. Most investors don't like to sit and watch things happen. They like to move the market to their benefit. If you ask me, that benefit is down, but time will tell.
Again, short term, look for a break of $5200 to determine a continuation upwards or a failure of $4900 to look toward $4300-4500.
Trade safely friends.
<3 -CE-
TLDR: $5200 is our current resistance to break to identify a continuation upwards, otherwise likelihood is down to mid to low 4000s.
Apologies ahead of time for the busy busy chart. I see about half a dozen places bitcoin can go so I'm going to do my best to explain all the scenarios.
Bitcoin has been consolidating a bit up here despite the red selling pressure that ensued about 5 days ago. I wouldn't say this is a "bears are in control" candle but it does show that people are starting to take profits or enter new short positions here. So what does that mean exactly? Let's dive right in because there's a lot going in on this chart.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin $7800
First is the obvious cup that has formed. One could say we're forming a handle here. There are a lot of people out there (retail investors) that are saying that our heaviest resistance is between 5800 and 6200 (I agree, by the way). Problem is, if you will be trading this as a cup and handle formation, the target is closer to $7800. It sure would take a lot to get us up there, especially after the 25% day we just had about 2 weeks ago. I consider this the lowest probability outcome.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin $4300
Looking at a shorter timeframe, I see two potential targets in our midst. It all really depends on if we're in a 3 or a 5 wave downward pattern from 5475 to 4923 to 5191. Using that as our 1-2 wave, I'm predicting we're likely heading to around $4300 (bright green box). I see this as our highest probability trade. First because there's a nice trendline there (which we flew by on April 2) and second because that was our major resistance when we were in the 3000 range. we failed to break $4200-$4300 around 3 times. No reason to really think we won't go back there.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin $3750
If (when?) we break 4300, I'm looking at that trendline at the bottom (in yellow) to be our strongest support. I will surely buy there. Currently that price is around $3600 but it's rising gradually. By the time we get there ( assuming we do ), it will probably be closer to $3750 unless we get a straight red candle to oblivion. Possible, I suppose.
Scenario 4: Bitcoin $6250
I actually think this is possible. This would take us into our "Heaviest Resistance" territory, but if you treat this push up from 3125 as a 5 wave impulse rather than a 3 wave correction, our target becomes $6250. It's always possible to get what they call a "truncated 5th" where it is unable to reach the algo target but that target remains at $6262.50. I say likelihood for this scenario being around 35% and it does depend on the ultra short term break of $5200 which we've been struggling. Breaking $5200 does make the probability of this trade a little higher.
Scenario 5: Bitcoin $2500
Not shown on this chart however if we break through that yellow trendline, we're in lots of trouble. We'd be looking at the cyan trendline to be our support which could take us to a "double bottom" depending on how long it takes but more than likely we would be in a crypto depression if that level breaks and the selling continues.
It's funny how just a few hundred million dollars can make everybody turn so bullish. You do have to keep things in perspective. Bitcoin has done +75% since the $3125 low. That's something to think about. Most investors don't like to sit and watch things happen. They like to move the market to their benefit. If you ask me, that benefit is down, but time will tell.
Again, short term, look for a break of $5200 to determine a continuation upwards or a failure of $4900 to look toward $4300-4500.
Trade safely friends.
<3 -CE-
Trade active:
As I mentioned, we needed to cross 5200 which happened. We were able to get close to 5400 and we continue finding resistance. If we are to find a way up to 5800 then the 6000-6200 range is possible. I expect that to be a very strong rejection. I doubt we will be up there long. If we consolidate there then we are in trouble... Shorts are in trouble, I should clarify.