Bitcoin, the eve of the war, the dark tide

Market once again into the quagmire, the current so-called do more wrong, do not do good. Trading volume has shrunk and the amplitude has converged, which reminds me of last October, when there was a dead silence and the market news was not enough. The only thing that could tickler investors' nerves was the looming etf. Even during a tether time, is also a flash in the pan, soon fell into silence again, until November BCH bifurcation caused quite a stir, add bakkt exit contract extension, let the market suddenly lost patience, short, roll, all of a sudden balance will be the currency price break, finally in the $3200 to find support.

That time, on the eve of tumbling market appeared a big triangle shape, very clear I was mentioned many times to pay attention to the form, but the tape in the night, still make a lot of people caught off guard, I remember the second day early morning, when I see a crash, or feel very consternation, because I was to judge where lost the trend line, down 5, 600 dollars on the also have rebounded, where think long line protection in 6100, after been ringing didn't reinforcements, so short all the way, the market a whine. At that time, in December, a lot of big names jumped out and shouted that bitcoin was ponzi and should be zero. Remember, in the golden community at that time, many people's state was like the end of the world.

So I think a sideways break can be very serious. Including the breakthrough of $4200 this year, I also failed in the number of times between $4100 and $4200 at that time. At that time, I judged where there was a clear top deviation, and theoretically, the market bears should pay attention to this idea, so I continued to increase my bets in the long position of $4200, so that it became the maginot line of the bears. After the breakthrough in the moment, the moment ten million empty single into nothing, is also a wide open trend, the price instantly broke through $5,000.

Taking two examples, I want to tell you that in the case of continuous sideways volatility, any operation is to take risks, so here either you hold spot hedging, or you stay on the sidelines, waiting for the trend to form before following up. Because in the field of technical analysis, we adhere to three principles, and trend formation is bound to continue is a very strong certainty in this principle.

We have compared three charts today, which are 4-hour cycles of three stages. In November 2018, April 2019 and August 2019, the major patterns are all volatile trends. The first two have some important characteristics before the breakthrough:

1. The most important area for the breakthrough in November is under the control of the densely traded area, while the breakthrough in April is based on the densely traded area

2. Ma18 is another important reference. In November, it was obvious that it was under the pressure of ma18. In April, however, the opposite was true. Ma18 continued to support higher prices, breaking through 4200.

3, are the head of the departure walk, there is a 4 hours in November superimposed on the weekly line of departure, of course, after the collapse of the departure disappeared, so pay attention not to false start here. In April, the top deviation of multi-cycle resonance was overturned. For this reason, I made a review later, thinking that I was too conservative. Although it was right not to rush, I should not be too cautious.

We see from the above three conditions, current situation, it should be said that at present there have been no signs of broken bits, though the bitmex currency rising trend line has been put in, but ok and fire currency quarterly contracts, have not yet fully broken, this time we focus on four hours of volume concentration areas, the location of the now in 10040, if the position was lost, ma18 in above constitute the pressure at the same time, the downward trend will be a great probability in theory, but now there is a difference, is the look line on below level ma144 support, at about $8780, that is to say, if it broken, The downward 10% space should be supported, so the probability of forming the trend of November 2018 will not be very large. The so-called historical reproduction does not mean simple repetition, and we cannot understand it metaphysically.

Strategy: wait for the formation of the trend, especially long, don't worry, long trend is not, what are you afraid of short? Contract, now to be careful of the main lure, so now trading difficulty is very big, not a master, do not recommend the operation.