Bitcoin Daily Update (day 198)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: “There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down...If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks.” / Closed ETH:USD shorts due to high volume dragonfly doji from yesterday’s close. Using 5:1 leverage that position returned +147.85% in 12 days.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,525 & $6,777 | S: Will it turn $6,425 into support??
BTCUSDSHORTS: Will it create a lower high or higher low? | Most of the shorts are on Bitfinex and most of the longs are on Bitmex. Since Bitfinex only allows 3.33X leverage I think the longs are in more danger of getting squeezed/liquidated.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.007%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Current candle is retesting 12 EMA for resistance. 26 = -2.26%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -5.15% | 128 = -7.95%
Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to define the next move.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,610 | 0.5 = $6,767
Candlestick analysis: Currently forming bullish extended range candle.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen = $6,772
TD’ Sequential: G2 > G1 is providing entry, however I would stay away due to trading against the trend and unfavorable risk:reward ratio. 4h is currently on a 7 and indicates a correction in about 10 hours.
Visible Range: High volume node at $6,511 with 2 month lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.86% | 24h = +3.58% | 1w = +/- 0 | 2w = -7.44% | 1m = +3.16%
Bollinger Bands: A return to the MA at $6,743 is to be expected after bouncing from the bottom band
Trendline: Top end of descending triangle will waiting around $7,000
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065
On Balance Volume: Moving up with price / no div’s
ADX: Bear trend with -DI and +DI converging.
Chaikin Money Flow: Turning over and potentially creating a bear div’
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.03 | D = 46.72
Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly with buy signal on daily

Summary: This is the bounce that I have been waiting/hoping for. After closing out the rest of my shorts I am ready to re open at a better price. Now it is very important to remain patient and not enter too early. According to the TD’ Sequential this bounce still has 7 days left.

However, I am not sure if we will get to a 9 on this rally due to the following resistance cluster that is waiting from $6,743 - $6,887:

Daily Tenken-sen = $6,772
0.5 FIB = $6,767 (also 50% point of extended range weekly candle)
50 Day MA: $6,836 and angling downward
Gap in the volume profile. Low volume node at $6,800 could place the resistance as high as $6,887
Bollinger Band MA = $6,743

I will continue with my approach of watching BTC’ and trading ETH. ETH looks like it should bounce to $240 - $250 before continuing it’s downtrend. That area provided significant support in the past and should turn into significant resistance moving forward.

I am also planning on opening large shorts on EOS:BTC and EOS:ETH based on this analysis.