Bitcoin to 32k
Kindly go through the chart and do leave your comments about the expressed view. It sound real funny.
Moreover REMEMBER to appreciate my effort with your likes and always subscribe(Click follow) to my profile for fast and quick daily updates on all trading ideas
However, we don't know if something will come along causing BTC to rise or to fall, and whether it will be sharp or smooth, repeated or just once... We don't know jack. Especially not because of some elaborate sequence of previous price action. And especially not over a time span of multiple years!
The longer the time frame, the stronger the prevalence of fundamentals and importance of risk analysis. It makes no sense trying to work out the price of an asset in several years from previous price action because future results depend largely on what the market will do, major global events such as major companies developing their own crypto and the sentiment towards substitutes of value such as gold, silver and BTC... All things that are hard to wrap your head around, and even harder to credibly ignore when trying to figure out asset prices years from now.
This is like trying to figure out where a plane is going to land in 200 flights from now based on where it is right now and has been for a few flights in the past. What new planes are in development? What edge does this plane have over the other ones? When is it due for maintenance? How is the airline doing? Whoops, Corona time, how does that affect the whole ordeal? You can't tell where it will be in a vast time span just based on some singular variable such as location. You could only sensibly do that on short time frames, where "how the airline is doing" is scarcely relevant compared to position.
I hope the above example illustrates, analogously, how certain variables affect predicted outcome differently based on the time between the prediction and the present. Historical asset pricing is not used by anyone who makes actual money in the trading realm to be a leading variable of asset prices years into the future.
If you want to do TA, at least do it on the appropriate time frames where it largely accounts for the constant swings that take place there!
In the long run, what really matters is intrinsic value which, for BTC, is a bit of a tough nut to crack, perhaps the toughest of all, admittedly. However, the fundamental principles of trying to calculate intrinsic value still apply. You still need to account for the market in general and how you think it'll develop, the market share and its development, competitive edge and how it could be retained, the uses and functionality of the asset or what it produces, and so on. That's what's going to drive price up or down long-term.
To torture the herd analogy a bit: in the short term, herd location is based on what some of the front of the herd is doing; the rest just follows. The front of the herd could be seen as the pattern that the rest of the herd (us traders) are keen to follow. We just go where we think we'll go, and the "losers" are those who follow too slowly or try to anticipate where the herd will go ahead of time and end up a stow-away. However, long-term, the herd is pushed to locations where resources reside, most notable being water. So, then, it would make sense in the short term to analyze the front of the herd and figure out where it's going. But over a span of two years, if you want to know their location, you'd need to figure out where the water's at; where the resources are at. Where safety's at. Where danger is at. Analyzing risk and reward; cost and benefit, as it pertains to the herd.
That's what fundamentals is to trading, and why I think it matters more than any particular sequence of price action data points over a span of two years!