Good morning traders. Yesterday's chart has been hidden by Tradingview because I inadvertently mentioned other social media sites that I am on. So we will be using the same chart today. Overall, price remains in the TR it began printing on May 13th. Price's current location appears to be printing a diamond. Often diamond tops result in reversals, but not always. Whichever direction price moves, traders can usually expect that the ascending resistance, or descending support, lines will keep price in check.
If it does break down through support, then traders should watch for a possible pullback at the demand zone/bottom of the TR around $7600. Price continuing through that area sets up the possibility of price filling the CME gap fully. However, this does not mean that price is headed to $5000. On the contrary, my expectation would be for price to bounce off the S1 pivot and head back up while continuing to print an ascending triangle. If price drops into the lower demand zone around $7400, this would invalidate my light blue wave count but would still keep the dark blue wave 4 intact. If price breaks up, then I would expect it to be a short-liquidating push up and target the R1 pivot. Can price head higher in this scenario? Sure it can, especially because I expect that a lot of people are short in this area. With that in mind, although we usually expect price to be kept in check by the resistance line, it is possible that price could surge through that ascending channel's resistance.
For now, the 1H RSI is neutral with support and resistance lines noted. A close below support or above resistance on the 1H TF should indicate that price will continue in that direction. The 21 EMA and HVN are supporting currently supporting price. Stoch RSI just bounce out of oversold which means it has room to drop just a bit. The 4H RSI remains slightly bullish, but is sitting on its support. Stoch RSI on that TF is just now dipping into oversold. Daily RSI is bullish at 67 and the Stoch RSI is just now attempting to bounce out of oversold. With all of this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see price break to the downside, but I do believe that it would be limited in duration due to Stoch RSI being so close to bottoming out on all those TFs and RSI being neutral to bullish. Daily R3 pivot is at $7520. The orange zone indicates the daily demand zone which, again, I expect to ultimately support price on any attempted drop.
While it does appear that we could be seeing a double top possibly forming over the past week, I'm hesitant right now to see the follow through since the various exchanges have significant differences in their May 16th swing low. The double top would not be confirmed until price closes below that swing low, so it would confirm on Binance first and Bitstamp last, with almost $1000 difference in pricing. More importantly, the target of the double top is the height of the swing high to swing low subtracted from the swing low. So not only would Bitstamp have to wait almost $1000 more to just confirm the double top, but then it would also have a $1000 lower target. Binance would be hitting its double top target just around the time Bitstamp confirms its own double top. The price target variance is just too large for me to give much consideration to a possible double top pattern at this time.
Remember, Wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration and I have been saying since then that I expected Wave 4 to be at least 2 weeks long, but potentially up to 4 weeks. We are just over a week into Wave 4 at this time. While a sudden thrust through the resistance found at the $8000-$8300 level would have price exiting Wave 4 earlier than expected, with the volatility we have seen, I wouldn't be overly surprised. With all this being said, I remain long from ~$6830.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
If it does break down through support, then traders should watch for a possible pullback at the demand zone/bottom of the TR around $7600. Price continuing through that area sets up the possibility of price filling the CME gap fully. However, this does not mean that price is headed to $5000. On the contrary, my expectation would be for price to bounce off the S1 pivot and head back up while continuing to print an ascending triangle. If price drops into the lower demand zone around $7400, this would invalidate my light blue wave count but would still keep the dark blue wave 4 intact. If price breaks up, then I would expect it to be a short-liquidating push up and target the R1 pivot. Can price head higher in this scenario? Sure it can, especially because I expect that a lot of people are short in this area. With that in mind, although we usually expect price to be kept in check by the resistance line, it is possible that price could surge through that ascending channel's resistance.
For now, the 1H RSI is neutral with support and resistance lines noted. A close below support or above resistance on the 1H TF should indicate that price will continue in that direction. The 21 EMA and HVN are supporting currently supporting price. Stoch RSI just bounce out of oversold which means it has room to drop just a bit. The 4H RSI remains slightly bullish, but is sitting on its support. Stoch RSI on that TF is just now dipping into oversold. Daily RSI is bullish at 67 and the Stoch RSI is just now attempting to bounce out of oversold. With all of this in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see price break to the downside, but I do believe that it would be limited in duration due to Stoch RSI being so close to bottoming out on all those TFs and RSI being neutral to bullish. Daily R3 pivot is at $7520. The orange zone indicates the daily demand zone which, again, I expect to ultimately support price on any attempted drop.
While it does appear that we could be seeing a double top possibly forming over the past week, I'm hesitant right now to see the follow through since the various exchanges have significant differences in their May 16th swing low. The double top would not be confirmed until price closes below that swing low, so it would confirm on Binance first and Bitstamp last, with almost $1000 difference in pricing. More importantly, the target of the double top is the height of the swing high to swing low subtracted from the swing low. So not only would Bitstamp have to wait almost $1000 more to just confirm the double top, but then it would also have a $1000 lower target. Binance would be hitting its double top target just around the time Bitstamp confirms its own double top. The price target variance is just too large for me to give much consideration to a possible double top pattern at this time.
Remember, Wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration and I have been saying since then that I expected Wave 4 to be at least 2 weeks long, but potentially up to 4 weeks. We are just over a week into Wave 4 at this time. While a sudden thrust through the resistance found at the $8000-$8300 level would have price exiting Wave 4 earlier than expected, with the volatility we have seen, I wouldn't be overly surprised. With all this being said, I remain long from ~$6830.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.