Australia [ASX 200] - 2021 outlook

ASX:XJO   S&P/ASX 200 Index
Purple = weekly
Blue = Monthly
Orange = Daily

Hello Traders and Analysts,

The following analysis will be in depth to explain the out look of the Index and

Based on what merit?
Being a commodity based currency we need to analyse the US and commodities as Australia a produce of raw materials.

The Australian economy is commodity based but also well suited to self-sufficiency in some aspects from raw material production, construction but relies on Tourism and exports to keep the Aussie afloat.
With the ASX correlated with the S&P500 - we expect the ASX to over extend the Fibonacci targets to the upside into 2021 upon the global recovery.

We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the zone of $29.00.
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of the reluctance for the demand of the Commodities . However, this produced a demand zone to hold from so we have a buying opportunity.

This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself now between $22-27 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.

The long term wider chart is available below;


Daily longs are still in play after
Weekly longs
Monthly long
Retrace is occurring on the weekly time frame - but can this be building up
Fibonacci level aligns of 50% around 1939 and 61.8% at 1907.00 USD.
This retracement zone will show a great long identification
Retrace needed to to confirm liquidity from the strong demand.

Current market at play for XAU USD


from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure. Where price had a low of 2182, this significant point to me, showed the imbalance between the previous Fibonacci extension points 1.786, 1.618. This was essentially fulfilling the swing high and creating a swing low.
Refer back to 2007-08 on the chart to see the imbalances - where; the blue Ellipse - shows the 2008 rally distribution beginning to take effect.
The Red Ellipse - shows the pivotal 1.7186, 1.618 full retracement zones - where the "china trade war" and "coronavirus" fundamentals took place for the index to fall back in line.

The current bullish momentum will be created from the stimulus coming further into 2021, presidential change and USD index or DXY being suppressed. This projection offers the rate of debt the debt market cycle has not been reacting negatively yet with yields still intact and further debt creation to refinance debt obligations .

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Swing trade out looks
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simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced .
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Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand.

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Many thanks,
Team LVPA.


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