We can also see a quite similar pattern to early 2017: Two fake outbreaks with subsequent dumps. In 2017 it was more benign that this time, but back then the timescale was also longer.
This was now amplified because of the commotion with the SEC.
But note how fascinating: Despite the SEC turmoil, XRPBTC prints a setup which is remarkably similar to the one in early 2017.
Similar double peak pattern, similar in the .
This time however, the in the is a lot stronger than back then.
The coil has been stretched much further this time, than back then. And a coil that is stretched too far, bears great force within, ready to explode with the utmost imaginable power!
I assume that XRPBTC will now start printing first a small green weekly candle. Then a larger one. Then an even larger one.
How high it will go and how long it will last, of course also depends strongly on BTC .
Will BTC do a 2013 or 2017 repeat? That will also determine if XRP will do one single gigantic rally, or two rallies, like back in 2017/18.
I think the conservative target for XRPUSD is 10 USD in this bullrun, this is a lower limit.
However, if BTC does a double rally, and indeed reaches prices as crazy as 200k, an upper limit for XRPUSD would be, as crazy as it sounds, 40-50 USD.
I will keep a close eye on BTC , and XRPBTC , to determine how high XRP can go this cycle.
Note: I think the entire SEC thing will have no effect whatsoever on the price action.
Maybe some short-term action, but the end price will reach these values no matter what the outcome will be.
We should be careful and not cheer prematurely again. Only if the weekly closes significantly over the falling wedge resistance, do I think that the rally will finally start.
It starts slowly, then does successively more and more aggressive pumps.
But the very beginnings are still inconspicuous, and nobody believes in the rally any more.
Fascinating to see that XRPBTC chart play out on very long timeframes. Now that we have made it past the intense volatility of the past 2 months, it's truly amazing to see that if we were to erase the Flare Networks pump, and the subsequent SEC dump from the chart, it would look exactly as it is expected to. Like you noted on your chart, it would be a carbon copy of the previous cycle around early 2017. Since BTC has managed, as expected, to create an almost perfect copy of its previous cycle over the last few months, and confirmed that the halving is the only event that truly drives its long term price action, it's only fair to expect that XRP will also continue to behave the same way it always has. In this case, it means the that the long awaited, 4 year cycle XRPBTC massive pump could be very close.
As you noted at the end of your idea, there is still no evidence that any "real world" event, related to Ripple Labs or not, has had any effect on the long term price of XRP. These events have created pumps, dumps, shakeouts, but nothing that amounts to more than noise on the long term charts. All major long term moves, have always exclusively been reactions to BTC's price action. Will the SEC manage to prove this theory wrong ? The longest time XRP has gone without printing a new ATH was 1251 days during the 2014-2016 BTC bear market. We currently stand at 1162 days. If June 9th 2021 rolls around without a new ATH, we will be experiencing the longest and most painful bear market in XRP's recorded history.
You posted a very prescient article a few months back titled "Ripple will rise when 99% have folded". We might not have reached 99% just yet but it looks like with the help of the SEC, we are starting to get very close to that magic number !
I suspect that the SEC just postponed the inevitable XRP bullrun, but they could not avert it. In fact, they might have added more fuel to the fire. Ironic, because they probably meant to do the exact opposite and harm XRP holders as much as possible.
I don't even want to know about the level of corruption at the SEC. Probably many people there bought some cheap XRP, and they probably knew full well that the lawsuit could not have a chance of success.
I agree with everything you said. Yes, it is quite fascinating that XRPBTC looks very similar in structure to 2017, despite having now all this drama with the SEC. Longterm, nothing has changed.
I agree, that this whole SEC drama has served the purpose to flush out weak hands. We now might be at 90% shakeout level, but as you said, we are approaching the magical 99% figure. When only die-hard holders are left, that is when a coin develops the craziest pump potential. You have no sellers left any more, but only buyers. So only one small positive news is needed to make it explode. Sometimes not even that.
With the crazy speed that BTC is pumping with right now, far surpassing all predictions of when we'd hit ATH, I would bet that XRP will have reached the peak before June 9th.
I think BTC will hit the top already in April, or May at the latest, with XRP a few weeks later, like back in early 2018, when the XRP peak was 3 weeks after BTC's peak.
I am still trying to figure out how high it will go, that will of course strongly depend on what top BTC will hit. 100k? 180k? 250k? XRPBTC has the potential to pump back to old ATH levels at 0.00023, so we could be looking at prices of 20+ USD, of course, only for a very short time, until price will decline again and we're entering the next bear market.
I saw that you outlined 2 potential paths going forward, in your previous BTC idea, the 2013 path, or the 2017 path. If it follows 2017, which I would see as the "bad" outcome, with a final cycle ATH in April - May, that would be a surprise massive reduction in the usual cycle length, while a few months back, it felt more intuitive that the cycles would get longer as BTC matures, not shorter.
For the past few months, I've been thinking about the possibility that the incredible amount of money printing that was forced by the Covid crisis could have raised the bar of how high BTC can go this cycle. The pandemic was potentially a blessing in disguise for risk assets, both stocks and cryptos, triggering a massive shakeout event first, then creating perfect conditions for an enormous bull run, that would last for all of 2021 for cryptos, definitely longer for stocks.
I'm hoping that BTC will do a super strong version of the 2013 post-halving bull run path. In this best case scenario, BTC could reach a nice $100k top in April - May, followed by a "fake" bear market in the summer, before the mania picks back up in the fall, sending us to a final cycle ATH of $250k or more at the end of the year. The best part about this scenario is that it would allow XRP and other alts to reach the most incredible values. Definitely a lot of decisive action happening in the next few weeks, we'll see how it goes !
Yes, you are absolutely right, your scenario could actually be quite likely.
The Corona black swan event lead to excessive money printing, I saw a chart which you certainly also know, that 50% of all dollars in existence were printed in 2020 alone! That is an insane level of inflation, which in conjunction with the sell-off in March 2020 is as you correctly pointed out, perfect fuel for an incredible rally of many asset classes, including bitcoin.
A 2013 repeat is the most logical conclusion. I don't know why else we would already now be at these unexpectedly high levels. But, if we assume that actually we would normally be at "only" 30k, since the USD just lost half its value, then all the prices would just be shifted upwards x2.
And since the cycle duration is until now following 2017 very closely as you mentioned, only 12 days faster to new ATHs than in 2017, it would be extremely weird if we would hit the definitive ATH already in April or May.
It is much more likely that that ATH will be a local top like 2013, with a fake bearmarket and a second impressive pump to 288k.
Interestingly, this would also be about 2x the value of what I was thinking years ago that the top of this cycle would be. But I didn't anticipate the excessive money printing of the FED due to Corona.
Also, it is in line with PlanB's S2F model.
Plus, even more fascinating, it is exactly the 4.23 fibonacci extension of the 2017 top! The same way the 2017 top was the 4.23 extension of the 2013 top.
This cannot be a coincidence.
Therefore I completely agree with you: A top at 250-300k this cycle seems quite realistic, given the excessive monetary policy of the USA.
I would also put the timeframe to end of the year. October-December somewhere.
It looks like the next 2 months should give us a good indication of what path BTC wants to take. It will most likely be, like you mentioned, a hybrid version of the 2013 and 2017 bull runs.
Also, one thing that I find interesting is that BTC has shown a tendency to be very seasonal during the bull run years, with the spring months and the end of year holidays months being extremely strong. In both 2013 and 2017, the spring was marked by new ATHs and price discovery, while the Thanksgiving and Christmas months ended up marking the height of retail mania, with the long term cycle ATH, for BTC and all other coins, always being printed at this moment. The concept of seasonality for an asset like BTC shouldn't be relevant, but I think that in this case, it is simply enforced by the timing of the halvings, always triggering the bull runs at the same time.