BudBronson
Long

XRP - prepare for a reversal soon. Smart money is accumulating.

BITFINEX:XRPUSD   Ripple / U.S. Dollar
XRPUSD 4H

Hey guys, same as with my previous analysis on BTCUSD             on which I've been calling for a reversal to happen soon - I am also keeping an eye on XRPUSD, as I believe that the accumulation phase has already begun. This does not mean that I am calling for reversal to happen now, but soon. I have three projected reversal areas marked on the chart. Therefore, it is the best to keep in mind that we're about to witness a shift in market sentiment soon and to prepare for a logical entry at one of the given levels by monitoring both, XRP's P.A. and BTC's price behaviour.

Here are the reasons for why I believe that the overall correction is about to end soon:

1) We have (almost) completed a whole corrective elliott cycle. Same as with BTC             , price has formed a zigzag in a 5-3-5 structure. I have already marked the $0.65 level as an area of interest to look out for a week ago, when XRP was floating around $1.25. Once it has been hit, I updated my previous XRP idea, saying that I am not interested in opening a long position yet as we did not see a five wave structure, which normally should show up in a wave c.

2) Now, that we're in the making of the fifth wave of wave c, we start to see a decorrelation from BTCUSD             . XRP's overall structure still looks quite similar to BTC's and price still does more or less what BTC             is doing, but it is not as strong as it has been over the past weeks and days. As we haven't witnessed a lower low yet, the current leg might(!) result in a truncated fifth wave, meaning that it does not necessarily have to violate the recent low. The reason for that is that BTC             has already violated the recent low and is nearing my projected reversal zone of 7.3k-6.9k, maximum 6.5k. Therefore - once we start to see a sharp reversal on BTC             , I do not believe that we see XRP not reacting to that.

3) The psychological aspect is the same as with BTCUSD             - mainstream sentiment and media coverage couldn't been worse at the current moment. You see forecast like R.I.P.ple , etc and some people calling for a crypto armageddon. Remember when BTC             has nearly hit 20k and both, mainstream and media have been like 'This thing is going to hit 30k in a month'. This definitely has been an insane mania and people would have never expected to see such a bloody January. So at the current state, you actually see the very same psychological pattern - just reverse. Using this as an contrarian indicator - these days are probably the best ones for considering to open long positions. Smart money has begun to buy once BTC             has hit 8k. Dollar cost averaging would be a good choice at this point.

As you can see on the chart, the bolded curve has been respected quite well so far and I've been calling for a potential reversal at around $0.48 on my previous XRP forecasts. However, the market does not care at which level I would like to see price dropping. Putting it all together - XRP's and BTC's traditional T.A. and elliotts - I see a possibility for either a truncated fifth wave forming a double bottom OR in the case of a violation of the recent low, a drop till either $0.58 / $0.48 level. Note that from a fundament perspective, Bitfinex and Tether will be asked about the Tether affair tomorrow so we might(!) see another drop resulting in a final impulse till $0.4ish. However, if too many people expect something specific to happen, then chances are high that it doesn't happen. Brexit, Trump's election, BTC             Futures launch, Segwit2x are just some examples..

So for now, I am neutral and won't be doing anything but this can absolutely change within a few hours. I expect this week to be both, very interesting and volatile.

Same as with my previous BTCUSD             analysis, I will update this idea once it gets 10 likes. Make also sure to follow me, for updates and forecasts on other pairs. Safe trades!

Bud


Trade active: Longs opened at 0.71
Comment: Hey guys, XRP has hit the second confluence zone at $0.58, followed by an immediate spike to the upside. Personally, I am dollar cost averaging - so I'll buy even more on the dips. We might even see a drop towards $0.48 levels and a touch of the bolded curve. However, seeing it from the bigger perspective I am neither technically nor fundamentally worried about XRP's future. As some of you have mentioned the dependance on BTC. We've witnessed indeed a heavy correlation between BTC and XRP, so I am always monitoring BTC simultaneously. So, as BTC might(!) even continue to drop to 5k-4.5k we should be more patient and not hoping for a quick reversal. As I've said, we're in the accumulation phase - meaning smart money has begun investing again. Does this mean that BTC and XRP don't continue on dropping? No, they might. Should we be worried? Absolutely not. The best thing we can do is to dollar cost averaging and just hold for the mid to long term. 1 year from now, there will be a bunch of people who wished that they have started to increase their crypto holdings at the current price levels. Patience is they key. Many thanks for all your feedback. Much love. Bud
Comment: Hey guys, great upmove we've witnessed today. However, it is unclear for now if todays move is a first impulse leg to the upside or just another correction before continuing to the downside. In case that this has been the first bull leg, subdivided in five waves - look out for three wave correction and a logical buy setup after confirmation. The second scenario would be that we will see today another bearish impulse to the downside, forming either a double bottom at the mentioned $0.58 confluence area or even knocking that level out.
Comment: Forgot to post the chart below the update. Here it is.

Comment: Hey guys, as some of you have asked: I do now have a Telegram group! Feel free to join: https://t.me/bbgtv
Comment: New XRP and BTC update on the Telegram group: https://t.me/bbgtv
amazing clear chart. Thanks for the effort and sharing your skill.
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Thanks for the update
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Yeah i believe in XRP more than bitcoin now
+1 Reply
Wouldn't you say the reversal of XRP and all other alts is strongly dependent on the reversal of BTC? I think when BTC reverses and starts an uptrend, all other alts will follow. What do you think?
+1 Reply
KingBennon jas0992
@jas0992, duh
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@jas0992, Speaking of the current market situation, yes XRP and all the other ones are strongly correlated to BTC. Despite the drop on BTC I'm still holding, increasing my holdings and simply just being patient as the current levels are an awesome opportunity to buy back in at very cheap prices. Have a look at my recent update, posted below the chart. Cheers
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How do you call the curve reversal channel drawn on the chart?
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BudBronson andrewau2014
@andrewau2014, as for now it's just a dynamic support from below and dynamic resistance from above. However, once we're at $3.30ish this curve can turn into a cup and handle pattern
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when will the return start?
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after seeing a lot of tas this is one i feel good about it. me personalz wouldnt shoot for 5 wave target 4$ within the nest 60 days but that arrow is propably just due to space related reasons in that angle me personaly id like to see a stable 1$ within the next 2 weeks and at the end of feb id like to see some upwind towards likt lets make it 1,5$ jut to pull a even number out of my behind. soimething like that who knows it might take 3 days to go from 1$ to 5$ but i kindadont look forward to another january any time soon ;D cheers and gl everyone
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