Hey guys, same as with my previous analysis on BTCUSD on which I've been calling for a reversal to happen soon - I am also keeping an eye on XRPUSD, as I believe that the accumulation phase has already begun. This does not mean that I am calling for reversal to happen now, but soon. I have three projected reversal areas marked on the chart. Therefore, it is the best to keep in mind that we're about to witness a shift in market sentiment soon and to prepare for a logical entry at one of the given levels by monitoring both, XRP's P.A. and BTC's price behaviour.
Here are the reasons for why I believe that the overall correction is about to end soon:
1) We have (almost) completed a whole corrective cycle. Same as with BTC , price has formed a in a 5-3-5 structure. I have already marked the $0.65 level as an area of interest to look out for a week ago, when XRP was floating around $1.25. Once it has been hit, I updated my previous XRP idea, saying that I am not interested in opening a long position yet as we did not see a five wave structure, which normally should show up in a wave c.
2) Now, that we're in the making of the fifth wave of wave c, we start to see a decorrelation from BTCUSD . XRP's overall structure still looks quite similar to BTC's and price still does more or less what BTC is doing, but it is not as strong as it has been over the past weeks and days. As we haven't witnessed a lower low yet, the current leg might(!) result in a truncated fifth wave, meaning that it does not necessarily have to violate the recent low. The reason for that is that BTC has already violated the recent low and is nearing my projected reversal zone of 7.3k-6.9k, maximum 6.5k. Therefore - once we start to see a sharp reversal on BTC , I do not believe that we see XRP not reacting to that.
3) The psychological aspect is the same as with BTCUSD - mainstream sentiment and media coverage couldn't been worse at the current moment. You see forecast like R.I.P.ple , etc and some people calling for a crypto armageddon. Remember when BTC has nearly hit 20k and both, mainstream and media have been like 'This thing is going to hit 30k in a month'. This definitely has been an insane mania and people would have never expected to see such a bloody January. So at the current state, you actually see the very same psychological pattern - just reverse. Using this as an contrarian indicator - these days are probably the best ones for considering to open long positions. Smart money has begun to buy once BTC has hit 8k. Dollar cost averaging would be a good choice at this point.
As you can see on the chart, the bolded curve has been respected quite well so far and I've been calling for a potential reversal at around $0.48 on my previous XRP forecasts. However, the market does not care at which level I would like to see price dropping. Putting it all together - XRP's and BTC's traditional T.A. and elliotts - I see a possibility for either a truncated fifth wave forming a OR in the case of a violation of the recent low, a drop till either $0.58 / $0.48 level. Note that from a fundament perspective, Bitfinex and Tether will be asked about the Tether affair tomorrow so we might(!) see another drop resulting in a final impulse till $0.4ish. However, if too many people expect something specific to happen, then chances are high that it doesn't happen. Brexit, Trump's election, BTC launch, Segwit2x are just some examples..
So for now, I am neutral and won't be doing anything but this can absolutely change within a few hours. I expect this week to be both, very interesting and volatile.
Same as with my previous BTCUSD analysis, I will update this idea once it gets 10 likes. Make also sure to follow me, for updates and forecasts on other pairs. Safe trades!