WTI Crude: Potential 40$ Oil Next Year
OPEC recently met this week to discuss whether or not to decrease crude oil production in October after initially deciding to increase production for September, increasing supply. Last month OPEC agreed to increase production in September by 100,000 barrels per day during their last meeting in August as the US strained to fight inflation and high energy prices. OPEC stated that the production increase was only meant for September, coming into agreement that in October they will cut production by 100,000 barrels per day.
Demand for crude oil has been falling and supply has been increasing OPEC stated, OPEC warned that a global economic slowdown is coming, and demand for crude oil has fallen 300,000 barrels per day in 2022, and will also fall by the same amount in 2023. OPEC further sees a possible increase in crude supply if Iran is able to agree on a new nuclear deal with the United States and Europe, which would ease sanctions on its exports
From a technical perspective USOIL has been trading below the 200 day simple moving average since July 14, crossing back above a few times in the summer in August, but recently this week has seen a sharp decline below the 200 day sma indicating strong selling pressure. Banks and investors will be gearing towards staying short oil. The default monthly 12 26 9 period MACD has recently shown strong bearishness as the fast line has fallen below the slow line, the last time this happened was September 2018, 4 years ago. The 1 month default RSI currently sits at a value of 52.28, above neutral with lots of room to become oversold and fall below 30. Crude could potentially see 40 dollars a barrel in 2023 until any change in bullish momentum is shown, momentum stands strongly bearish right now as the bears have taken control. Tomorrow the US IEA will release WTI crude inventory count numbers, and Kushing Oklahoma inventory numbers, (Crude Oil Inventories
Forecasted: -0.250M Previous -3.326M), and have forecasted an increase in supply from the previous week's count. $WTI Crude Oil $Brent Crude Oil
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Demand for crude oil has been falling and supply has been increasing OPEC stated, OPEC warned that a global economic slowdown is coming, and demand for crude oil has fallen 300,000 barrels per day in 2022, and will also fall by the same amount in 2023. OPEC further sees a possible increase in crude supply if Iran is able to agree on a new nuclear deal with the United States and Europe, which would ease sanctions on its exports
From a technical perspective USOIL has been trading below the 200 day simple moving average since July 14, crossing back above a few times in the summer in August, but recently this week has seen a sharp decline below the 200 day sma indicating strong selling pressure. Banks and investors will be gearing towards staying short oil. The default monthly 12 26 9 period MACD has recently shown strong bearishness as the fast line has fallen below the slow line, the last time this happened was September 2018, 4 years ago. The 1 month default RSI currently sits at a value of 52.28, above neutral with lots of room to become oversold and fall below 30. Crude could potentially see 40 dollars a barrel in 2023 until any change in bullish momentum is shown, momentum stands strongly bearish right now as the bears have taken control. Tomorrow the US IEA will release WTI crude inventory count numbers, and Kushing Oklahoma inventory numbers, (Crude Oil Inventories
Forecasted: -0.250M Previous -3.326M), and have forecasted an increase in supply from the previous week's count. $WTI Crude Oil $Brent Crude Oil
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets