MrRenev

Socialist Oil Countries are going to starve

Long
MrRenev Updated   
CBOT:ZW1!   Wheat Futures
The price is dropping very rapidly, as I want it too. So I better make this quick.






Demand is up because of humans but also animals, production not great.

"A wet winter and dry spring in the UK is set to yield its smallest crop since 1981, Carr’s Flour said in its monthly market report."

I watch some agricultors on youtube, west europeans barely make money if they are not industrials, and 1 guy had a poor harvest that caused him to be in the red for the year.

The European Commission came up with a decline of surplus exports of 5.7% for the EU + UA + RU.
Argentina had low yields because of poor rainfall.
The USA also had a bad harvest, and their stocks are almost empty last I checked.

Socialist Oil country must be panicking, maybe they make some orders before the price gets even higher, for example Algeria is emptying its forex reserves that have been on a decline for 20 years already, the Oil prices are really finishing them off. Only a few years to "this was not real socialism".

Could go higher and then even higher. Could be a monster. If I get filed. Got maybe a bit greedy with the far away entry and tight stop I can't help it.

The price is bouncing but maybe the next candle fills me doing something like this here:

Let's profit off starving socialists! There is no better feeling.
Trade active:
Barely posted this, filed. Price is violently dropping, this is what I am looking for but... I am scared 😭
Trade closed: stop reached:
Well that was quick
Comment:
It could actually be in a bottom now
Comment:
This time around violently dropped and is violently bouncing


Wheat has been going down, Soy up... I wonder if there is some some of arbitrage opportunity here 🤔
Would have to run the price data and see what usually happens.

Weird correction... Not to say there are not always somehow a bit weird... Just a bit more than average here


Oh damn price is bouncing monstruously, what is this friday evening?


Day traders looking for hammer candles are so disappointed we are friday eve.
Just kidding, no retail day traders are watching this ever. Quants maybe.
My gosh I am not a scalper, but the price is moving a whole daily ATR in minutes, a move that would take hour is taking seconds. Big big BIG buying. LoL. $6.05 already.



What's going on? What should I do?



Comment:
Yesterday report is here

www.cmegroup.com/tra...t_charts/snd_cbt.pdf

Soybean numbers are way below previous estimates/expectations, Corn is below but not terrible, wheat is a bit higher but it's so small it is nothing.
Comment:
At some point I think it is pointless to keep insisting, I believe in giving the price a chance once but after that no thanks.

Sure it could end up going up as it did previously (look left) but when it drifts like this I know no way to tell when it will and in how much time. So there is no point.

I almost want to short, we could come up with ideas to buy lower and so on but it's all just garbage... And this is expensive to trade so even more than usual it is only interesting when there are high odds and RR, can't afford to keep buying/selling at those costs.


Vegans favorite meat replacement (small interesting note maybe it gets replaced by cheap and green lucerne soon I'd love to watch vegans eat grass :p actually muricans are already paying super high price for "super food" lucerne capsules aka cheap powdered leaves/grass in capsule lmao get scammed fools):



Examples:





Sometimes we get stopped at the bottom but 90% of the time this happens the price slightly goes up... then down again... so...

Moves that are not vertical and convincing are not worth our time.
No point even doing any research/thinking.
Random back and forths are not worth the hassle.
Let retail day gamblers & "trading room" victims trade that.
Trade active:
I think prices are high enough and everything is more than priced in. For now.
With additional lockdowns and restrictions who knows?
Imo going to reverse hard soon. Soy to retest 10 bucks/bushel maybe.


Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.