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Exploring the Two Variations of the Rising Wedge PatternHello everyone! When I first started learning technical analysis, one of the patterns I found incredibly interesting and important was the Rising Wedge pattern. This pattern is formed when the price creates higher highs and higher lows, but the price range gradually narrows. However, there’s something that few people know – the Rising Wedge pattern can appear in two different forms, and each form has significant implications for predicting market trends. Form 1: Rising Wedge in an Uptrend (Reversal) The first and most common form of the Rising Wedge is when it appears in an uptrend. This pattern signals that the uptrend is losing momentum. When I identify this pattern, I know the market is weakening and is likely to reverse into a downtrend. Characteristics: The price creates higher highs and higher lows, but the range of price movement narrows, and trading volume typically decreases. Confirmation: A breakout below the support at the bottom of the Rising Wedge confirms a trend reversal. When this pattern forms, I prepare to enter a short trade when the price breaks the support at the bottom of the pattern. This is when the market could start to reverse and move downward. Form 2: Rising Wedge in a Downtrend (Continuation) The second form of the Rising Wedge appears in a downtrend. Although it may look similar to the first form, its purpose is different. This pattern does not signal a reversal, but instead indicates that the downtrend will continue after the price breaks below the bottom of the pattern. Characteristics: Similar to the pattern in the uptrend, the price also creates higher highs and higher lows, but the price narrowing occurs within a downtrend. Confirmation: Once the price breaks below the bottom of the pattern, it is expected to continue the strong downward movement. In this case, I do not rush to enter a buy trade because this pattern signals that the downtrend is still strong. After the price breaks below the bottom of the pattern, I will consider entering another short trade. In Summary The Rising Wedge pattern is an incredibly useful tool for technical analysis to identify changes in price trends. Whether in an uptrend or downtrend, this pattern can provide great trading opportunities if you know how to identify and act on it promptly. In an uptrend: The Rising Wedge signals weakness and a potential reversal. In a downtrend: The Rising Wedge signals the continuation of the downward trend. Understanding these two forms helps me make more accurate trading decisions and manage risk more effectively in any market condition.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Kenn_Nguyen
From Strength to Weakness: ETH Validates a Key Bearish PatternIntroduction (Market Context) Ether Futures (ETH) and Micro Ether Futures (MET) have been at the center of market attention since April 2025, when prices staged a remarkable rally of more than +250%. This surge was not just a technical phenomenon—it came in the wake of major macro events such as Liberation Day and the reemergence of U.S. tariff policies under Donald Trump’s administration. Those developments sparked speculative flows into digital assets, with Ether acting as one of the prime beneficiaries of capital rotation. Yet markets rarely move in one direction forever. After such a sharp rise, technical exhaustion often follows, and signs of that exhaustion are beginning to surface on ETH’s daily chart. Traders who enjoyed the rally now face a critical juncture: whether to protect gains or to consider new opportunities in the opposite direction. The key lies in a pattern that has appeared many times in history, often marking important reversals—the Rising Wedge. What is a Rising Wedge? A Rising Wedge is one of the most recognizable bearish reversal formations in technical analysis. It typically develops after a strong uptrend, where price continues to push higher but does so with diminishing momentum. On the chart, the highs and lows still point upward, but the slope of the highs is shallower than the slope of the lows, creating a narrowing upward channel. The psychology behind the wedge is critical: buyers are still in control, but they are running out of strength with every push higher. Sellers begin to absorb demand more aggressively, and eventually, price breaks through the lower boundary of the wedge. This breakdown often accelerates as trapped buyers unwind positions. From a measurement perspective, technicians project the maximum width of the wedge at its start, and then apply that distance downward from the point of breakdown. This projection offers a technical target for where price may gravitate in the following weeks. In the case of Ether Futures, that target points toward the 3,200 area, a level of strong technical interest and a logical area for traders to watch closely. RSI and Bearish Divergence Alongside the wedge, momentum indicators add further weight to the bearish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Values above 70 are generally interpreted as “overbought,” while values below 30 suggest “oversold.” The most powerful signals often emerge not when RSI is at an extreme, but when it diverges from price action. A bearish divergence occurs when price sets higher highs while RSI forms lower highs. This is an indication that upward momentum is weakening even as price appears to climb. Ether Futures have displayed this phenomenon clearly over the past few weeks. The daily chart shows four successive higher highs in price, yet RSI failed to confirm these moves, instead tracing a series of lower peaks. Notably, RSI pierced the overbought zone above 70 twice during this period, but momentum faded quickly after each attempt. This divergence is a classic early warning sign that a bullish run is running out of steam. Forward-Looking Trade Idea With the Rising Wedge breakdown and RSI divergence in place, a structured trade plan emerges. Futures traders can express this view through either the standard Ether Futures contract (ETH) or its smaller counterpart, the Micro Ether Futures contract (MET). Contract Specs & Margins Ether Futures (ETH): Notional = 50 Ether, Tick size = 0.50, Tick value = $25.00, Initial margin ≈ $68,800 (subject to CME updates). Micro Ether Futures (MET): Notional = 0.1 Ether, Tick size = 0.50, Tick value = $0.05, Initial margin ≈ $140 (subject to CME updates). Trade Plan (Bearish Setup) Direction: Short Entry: 4,360 Target: 3,200 Stop Loss: 4,702 (coinciding with a minor resistance level) Reward-to-Risk Ratio: ≈ 3.39 : 1 The projected wedge target around 3,200 is not only a measured move from the pattern but also sits close to a previously established UFO support zone. While anecdotal, this confluence reinforces the credibility of the level as a potential magnet for price. Risk Management Regardless of how compelling a technical setup may appear, the most decisive factor in trading remains risk management. Defining risk in advance ensures that losses are limited if the market behaves unexpectedly. In this case, placing the stop at 4,702 not only keeps risk under control but also aligns with a minor resistance level, making the trade plan technically coherent. Position sizing also plays a crucial role. The availability of Micro Ether Futures (MET) allows traders to participate with significantly reduced capital requirements compared to the full-sized ETH contract. This flexibility makes it easier to fine-tune exposure and manage account risk more precisely. Equally important is the discipline of adhering to precise entries and exits. Chasing a trade or ignoring pre-defined stop levels can erode the edge provided by technical analysis. Markets often deliver multiple opportunities, but without sound risk management, traders may not survive long enough to benefit from them. Ultimately, capital preservation is the foundation on which consistent performance is built. Closing Ether’s spectacular rally since April 2025 is a reminder of the asset’s ability to deliver explosive moves under the right conditions. Yet history shows that parabolic advances rarely continue uninterrupted. The combination of a Rising Wedge breakdown and a confirmed RSI divergence provides strong evidence that the current uptrend is losing momentum, and the market may be entering a corrective phase. For traders, this is less about predicting the future and more about recognizing when probabilities align in favor of a defined setup. With clear entry, target, and stop levels, the ETH and MET contracts offer a structured opportunity for those willing to take a bearish stance while managing their risk appropriately. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:ETH1!Education
by traddictiv
Bullish Energy in Natural Gas: -DMI Extreme + Wedge BreakoutThe Spark in the Gas Market Natural gas has been quietly simmering in recent weeks, building pressure beneath a surface of consolidation. Traders watching closely will have noticed a rare alignment — one that history shows can potentially precede outsized moves. We’re talking about the convergence of two powerful signals: a -DMI yearly extreme and a falling wedge breakout. In the past, this combination has marked moments when bearish momentum had run its course, giving way to swift and decisive bullish reversals. Now, that same alignment is flashing again, inviting a closer look at the technical landscape and the potential opportunities it presents. Why This Setup Matters The -DMI (Directional Movement Index) measures the strength of downward price moves. When it pushes beyond two standard deviations above its yearly linear regression channel, it signals an overextended bearish phase. Historically, these extremes have often coincided with market bottoms in Natural Gas Futures. Layer on top a falling wedge — a bullish reversal chart pattern — and the probability of an upside move gains weight. The wedge compresses price action into a narrowing range, reflecting reduced volatility and setting the stage for a potential explosive breakout once resistance gives way. The current breakout level sits near 3.18, with technical projections aligning closely to a well-defined UFO resistance (UnFilled Orders) zone around 3.90. The Technical Story Unfolds Looking at the daily chart in the present, the -DMI has recently breached the +2 standard deviation boundary of its 252-period regression channel — a rare occurrence that, as said, has preceded multiple major bullish reversals in the past year. When this condition appeared, downside momentum often faded, making room for buyers to take control. This time, the current signal aligns with a falling wedge that has been developing for weeks. Price is about to break above the wedge’s upper boundary at approximately 3.18, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The Trade Blueprint Direction: Long Entry: 3.18 (confirmed breakout above wedge resistance) Target: 3.90 (wedge projection + UFO resistance) Stop Loss: 2.858 (below wedge and technical support floor) Reward-to-Risk Ratio: ~2+ to 1 This structure allows traders to define risk tightly while targeting a meaningful upside move. The setup applies equally to both Natural Gas Futures (NG) and Micro Natural Gas Futures (MNG), offering flexibility in capital allocation. For smaller accounts or those wanting to reduce margin exposure, the MNG contract delivers the same tick size precision with only one-quarter of the notional value. The Contract Advantage Natural Gas Futures (NG) represent 10,000 MMBtu per contract, with a minimum tick size of 0.00025 — equivalent to $2.50 per tick. Micro Natural Gas Futures (MNG) are one-tenth the size at 1,000 MMBtu per contract, with the same 0.00025 tick size equaling $0.25 per tick. Margin requirements vary with volatility and exchange adjustments, but at the time of writing, the CME lists initial margin for NG in the range of $3,500 per contract, while MNG margins are proportionally lower at $350 per contract. This creates flexibility for traders to scale positions or manage risk without altering the technical logic of the trade. Both contracts trade nearly 24 hours per day, Sunday through Friday, offering the ability to react to global energy market shifts in real time. Risk Management as the Safety Valve Defining risk is the cornerstone of any trade plan. The stop loss at 2.858 is not arbitrary — it sits below both the wedge’s lower boundary and a nearby technical support level. If price were to close below this level, it would undermine the bullish thesis and call for an exit. Using smaller MNG contracts can help align risk with account size, allowing for partial position scaling and better drawdown control. Equally important is avoiding undefined risk scenarios, particularly in a commodity as volatile as natural gas. Precision in both entries and exits reduces exposure to intraday whipsaws while maintaining the trade’s structural integrity. Closing the Loop The natural gas market has aligned a rare set of conditions — a -DMI yearly extreme and a falling wedge breakout — each of which has historically preceded significant upside moves on their own. Together, they offer a compelling technical case for a defined, risk-managed long position targeting the 3.90 zone. While no setup guarantees success, this one seems to offer clarity: a well-defined entry, stop, and target, supported by historical probability and pattern structure. In volatile markets, those moments of clarity are worth paying attention to — and acting on with discipline, and always depending on the trader’s trading plan. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by traddictiv
Wedge Pattern: A Key to Trend Reversals and Continuations📈 Wedge Pattern: A Key to Trend Reversals and Continuations A wedge pattern is a technical chart formation that signals a potential reversal or continuation in the market. It’s formed when price moves between two converging trendlines — either sloping upward or downward — creating a narrowing range over time. There are two main types of wedge patterns: 🔻 Falling Wedge (Bullish) Formed during a downtrend or as a correction in an uptrend. Characterized by lower highs and lower lows, with the slope of the support line steeper than the resistance line. Typically signals a bullish reversal as momentum builds for a breakout to the upside. ✅ Confirmation: Break above the resistance line with volume surge. 🔺 Rising Wedge (Bearish) Appears during an uptrend or as a correction in a downtrend. Shows higher highs and higher lows, but the support line is steeper than the resistance line. Often leads to a bearish reversal, especially when volume declines into the pattern. ⚠️ Confirmation: Break below the support line with increasing volume. 🧠 Key Characteristics Volume tends to decrease as the pattern forms, indicating a pause in momentum. The breakout direction (up or down) determines whether it’s a continuation or reversal signal. Wedges can appear on any time frame and are useful for both day traders and long-term investors. 📊 Trading Tip Always wait for confirmation of the breakout before entering a trade. False breakouts can be common, especially in low-volume environments
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by ProfessorSingapore
Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements📐 Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements 📈 🔍 Introduction The Wedge is a chart pattern that represents a phase of directional consolidation following a trending move. It can act as a continuation 🔄 or a reversal 🔃 signal, depending on the context. The structure consists of two converging trendlines, both sloping in the same direction. 🧩 Pattern Description Unlike the Flag pattern 🚩, the Wedge has no flagpole and doesn’t depend on the direction of the previous move. The direction of the wedge body determines its type: A falling wedge ⬇️ is bullish 🟢 (buy signal) A rising wedge ⬆️ is bearish 🔴 (sell signal) The breakout is the key point to watch. The two trendlines slope in the same direction but at different angles, causing them to converge. This reflects a loss of momentum ⚠️ and typically indicates that buyers or sellers are preparing to take control. This pattern can act as: A continuation signal 🧭 — appearing at the end of a correction A reversal signal 🔄 — forming at the end of a strong trend 📉 Volume is usually low during the wedge and rises on breakout. A low-volume breakout increases the risk of a false breakout ❗. Often, price retests the breakout level 🔁, giving traders a second chance to enter. 🎯 Entry & Stop-Loss Strategy 📥 Entry: On breakout confirmation 🛑 Stop-loss: Below the pattern’s low (bullish) or above its high (bearish), or under/above the most recent local swing point 🎯 Target: Project the height of the widest part of the wedge from the breakout point. Alternatively, use key price levels 📊 or a trailing stop 🔂 to lock in profits. 💡 My Pro Tips for Trading the Wedge ✅ Pattern Criteria Two converging trendlines ➡️➕➡️ Clearly defined structure ✏️ Prior trending move before the wedge 🚀 Low volume within the wedge 📉, high volume on breakout 📈 Retest of breakout level = confirmation 🔁 🔥 Factors That Strengthen the Signal Breakout on strong volume 📊💥 Appears after an extended trend 🧭📉📈 More touches = stronger pattern ✍️ Breakout occurs close to the apex 🎯 ⚠️ Factors That Weaken the Signal Low volume on breakout 😐 Poorly defined trendlines 🫥 Few touches on lines Early breakout (too far from apex) ⏱️ No prior trend / appears in a range-bound market 📏 ✅ Examples of My Successful Wedge Trades 📸 ❌Examples of Failed Wedge Overview 💥 💬 Do you use the wedge pattern in your trading? It’s a powerful pattern, especially when confirmed by volume and market structure. Share your favorite wedge setups or ask questions below 👇👇
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASEducation
by ProfessorSingapore
Understanding Wedge Patterns - A Real Bitcoin Case Study🎓📊 Understanding Wedge Patterns - A Real Bitcoin Case Study 🧠📈 Hi everyone, FXPROFESSOR here 👨‍🏫 From this moment forward, I will no longer be posting targets or trade setups here on TradingView. Instead, I’ll be focusing 100% on education only for here in Tradinfview. Why? Because over time I’ve learned that even when traders receive the right charts, most still struggle to trade them effectively. So, from now on, FX Professor Crypto content here will be strictly educational — designed to teach you how to read and react to the markets like a professional. Unfortunately I cannot be posting on Tradingview frequent updates like I do all day. Education is always better for you guys. And i am very happy to share here with you what matters the most. 🧩 In today’s post, we dive into one of the most misunderstood formations: the wedge pattern. Most resources show wedges breaking cleanly up or down — but real price action is messier. 🎥 I recorded a video a few days ago showing exactly how BTC respected a wedge formation. ⚠️ Note: Unfortunately, TradingView doesn’t play the audio of that clip — apologies that you can’t hear the live commentary — but the visuals are clear enough to follow the logic. (there is no advertising of any kind on the video so i hope i don't get banned again - i did make a mistake the last time and will avoid it-the community here is awesome and needs to stay clean and within the rules of TV). Here’s what happened: 🔸 A clean wedge formed over several days 🔸 We anticipated a fake move to the downside, grabbing liquidity 🔸 BTC rebounded off support around a level marked in advance 🔸 Then price re-entered the wedge, flipping support into resistance The lesson? 📉 Often price will exit the wedge in the wrong direction first — trapping retail traders — before making the real move. This is a classic liquidity trap strategy, exercised by the 'market'. 💡 Remember: Wedges often compress price until it "runs out of space" The initial breakout is often a trap The true move tends to come after liquidity is taken The timing of the 'exit' has a lot to do with the direction. In the future we will cover more examples so pay attention. I stayed long throughout this move because the overall market context remained bullish — and patience paid off. Let this be a reminder: it’s not about guessing the direction — it’s about understanding the mechanics. More educational breakdowns to come — keep learning, keep growing. One Love, The FX PROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Education
by FX_Professor
2
Trading Divergences With Wedges in ForexTrading Divergences With Wedges in Forex Divergence trading in forex is a powerful technique for analysing market movements, as is observing rising and falling wedges. This article explores the synergy between divergence trading and wedges in forex, offering insights into how traders can leverage these signals. From the basics to advanced strategies, learn how you could utilise this approach effectively, potentially enhancing your trading skills in the dynamic forex market. Understanding Divergences In forex trading, the concept of divergence plays a pivotal role in identifying potential market shifts. A divergence in forex, meaning a situation where price action and a technical indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) move in opposite directions, often signals a weakening trend. This discrepancy is a valuable tool in divergence chart trading, as it may indicate a possible reversal or continuation of the current trend. There are two primary types of divergence in forex—regular and hidden. Regular divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs or lower lows while the indicator does the opposite, often signalling a reversal. Hidden divergence, on the other hand, happens when the price makes lower highs or higher lows while the indicator shows higher highs or lower lows, typically suggesting a continuation of the current trend. Trading Rising and Falling Wedges Rising and falling wedges are significant patterns in forex trading, often signalling potential trend reversals. A rising wedge, formed by converging upward trendlines, often indicates a bearish reversal if it appears in an uptrend. Conversely, a falling wedge, characterised by converging downward trendlines, typically reflects a bullish reversal if it occurs in a downtrend. Traders often look for a breakout from these patterns as a signal to enter trades. For rising wedges, a downward breakout can be seen as a sell signal, while an upward breakout from a falling wedge is often interpreted as a buy signal. When combined with divergences, this chart pattern can add confirmation and precede strong movements. Best Practices for Trading Divergences Trading divergence patterns in forex requires a keen eye for detail and a disciplined, holistic approach. Here are key practices for effective trading: - Comprehensive Analysis: Before trading on divergence and wedges, be sure to analyse overall market conditions. - Selecting the Right Indicator: Choose a forex divergence indicator that suits your trading style. Common choices include RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. - Confirmation Is Key: It’s best to watch for additional confirmation from price action or other technical tools before entering a trade. - Risk Management: Traders always set stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Divergence trading isn't foolproof; protecting your capital is crucial. - Patience in Entry and Exit: Be patient as the divergence develops and confirm with your chosen indicators before entering or exiting a trade. Strategy 1: RSI and Wedge Divergence Traders focus on regular divergence patterns when the RSI is above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern. The strategy hinges on identifying highs or lows within these RSI extremes. It's not crucial if the RSI remains consistently overbought or oversold, or if it fluctuates in and out of these zones. Entry - Traders may observe a regular divergence where both the price highs/lows and RSI readings are above 70 or below 30. - After the formation of a lower high (in an overbought zone) or a higher low (in an oversold zone) in the RSI, traders typically watch as the RSI crosses back below 70 or above 30. This is accompanied by a breakout from a rising or falling wedge, acting as a potential signal to enter. Stop Loss - Stop losses might be set just beyond the high or low of the wedge. Take Profit - Profit targets may be established at suitable support/resistance levels. - Another potential approach is to exit when the RSI crosses back into the opposite overbought/oversold territory. Strategy 2: MACD and Wedge Divergence Regarded as one of the best divergence trading strategies, MACD divergence focuses on the discrepancy between price action and the MACD histogram. The strategy is particularly potent when combined with a rising or falling wedge pattern in price. Entry - Traders typically observe for the MACD histogram to diverge from the price. This divergence manifests as the price reaching new highs or lows while the MACD histogram fails to do the same. - The strategy involves waiting for the MACD signal line to cross over the MACD line in the direction of the anticipated reversal. This crossover should coincide with a breakout from the rising or falling wedge. - After these conditions are met, traders may consider entering a trade in anticipation of a trend reversal. Stop Loss - Stop losses may be set beyond the high or low of the wedge, which may help traders manage risk by identifying a clear exit point if the anticipated reversal does not materialise. Take Profit - Profit targets might be established at nearby support or resistance levels, allowing traders to capitalise on the expected move while managing potential downside. Strategy 3: Stochastic and Wedge Divergence Stochastic divergence is a key technique for divergence day trading in forex, especially useful for identifying potential trend reversals. This strategy typically employs the Stochastic Oscillator with settings of 14, 3, 3. Entry - Traders may look for divergence scenarios where the Stochastic readings are above 80 or below 20, mirroring the RSI approach. - This divergence is observed in conjunction with price action, forming a rising or falling wedge. - Entry may be considered following a breakout from the wedge, which signals a potential shift in market direction. Stop Loss - Setting stop losses just beyond the high or low of the wedge might be an effective approach. Take Profit - Profit targets may be set at key support/resistance levels. The Bottom Line Divergence trading, coupled with the analysis of rising and falling wedges, offers a comprehensive approach to navigating the forex market. By integrating the discussed strategies with sound risk management and market analysis, traders may potentially enhance their ability to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
SYM Trade Breakdown – Robotics Meets Smart Technical's🧪 Company: Symbotic Inc. ( NASDAQ:SYM ) 🗓️ Entry: April–May 2025 🧠 Trade Type: Swing / Breakout Reversal 🎯 Entry Zone: $16.28–$17.09 ⛔ Stop Loss: Below $14.00 🎯 Target Zone: $50–$64+ 📈 Status: Strong Rally in Motion 📊 Why This Trade Setup Stood Out ✅ Macro Falling Wedge Reversal After nearly two years of compression inside a falling wedge, price finally tapped multi-year structural support and fired off with strength. This wasn’t just a bottom — it was a structural inflection point. ✅ Triple Tap at Demand Zone Symbotic tapped the ~$17 area multiple times, signaling strong accumulation. Volume and momentum picked up with each successive test, showing institutional interest. ✅ Clean Break of Trendline Price broke through the falling resistance trendline decisively, confirming the bullish reversal and unleashing stored energy from months of sideways structure. 🔍 Company Narrative Backdrop Symbotic Inc. isn't just any tech stock. It’s at the forefront of automation and AI-powered supply chain solutions, with real-world robotics deployed in major retail warehouses. That kind of secular growth narrative adds rocket fuel to technical setups like this — especially during AI adoption surges. Founded in 2020, Symbotic has quickly become a rising name in logistics and warehouse automation, serving the U.S. and Canadian markets. With robotics in demand and investors chasing future-ready tech, the price action aligned perfectly with the macro theme. 🧠 Lessons from the Trade ⚡ Compression = Expansion: Wedges like this build pressure. When they break, the moves are violent. 🧱 Structure Never Lies: The $17 zone was no accident — it was respected over and over. 🤖 Tech Narrative Boosts Confidence: Trading is easier when the fundamentals align with the technicals. 💬 What’s Next for SYM? If price holds above the wedge and clears the $64 resistance, we could be looking at new all-time highs in the next cycle. Watching for consolidation and retests as opportunity zones. #SYM #Symbotic #Robotics #Automation #AIStocks #BreakoutTrade #FallingWedge #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #TradeRecap #SupplyChainTech
NASDAQ:SYMEducation
by Adlercon333
Wedge Pattern – Simple Explanation 📚 Wedge Pattern – Simple Explanation A wedge pattern is a shape on the chart that looks like a triangle or cone. It tells us that the price is getting ready to break out — either up or down. --- 🔻 Falling Wedge (Bullish) Looks like price is going down, but slowly. Lines move closer together. Usually means the price will go up soon. It's a bullish signal (good for buying). --- 🔺 Rising Wedge (Bearish) Price goes up, but losing strength. Lines get closer together. Usually means the price will go down soon. It's a bearish signal (good for selling). --- 💡 Easy Tips: Wait for breakout (big move out of the wedge). Use a stop-loss below/above the pattern. Target = height of the wedge. --- 📌 In Short: Wedge = Squeeze pattern. Falling wedge = Buy chance. Rising wedge = Sell chance. --- Let me know if you have sny doubt in comments
Education
by Greenfireforex
Real Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in TradingReal Success Rates of the Falling Wedge in Trading The falling wedge is a chart pattern highly valued by traders for its potential for bullish reversals after a bearish or consolidation phase. Its effectiveness has been extensively studied and documented by various technical analysts and leading authors. Key Statistics Bullish Exit: In 82% of cases, the exit from the falling wedge is upward, making it one of the most reliable patterns for anticipating a positive reversal. Price Target Achieved: The pattern's theoretical target (calculated by plotting the height of the wedge at the breakout point) is achieved in approximately 63% to 88% of cases, depending on the source, demonstrating a high success rate for profit-taking. Trend Reversal: In 55% to 68% of cases, the falling wedge acts as a reversal pattern, signaling the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a new bullish phase. Pullback: After the breakout, a pullback (return to the resistance line) occurs in approximately 53% to 56% of cases, which can provide a second entry opportunity but tends to reduce the pattern's overall performance. False Breakouts: False exits represent between 10% and 27% of cases. However, a false bullish breakout only results in a true bearish breakout in 3% of cases, making the bullish signal particularly robust. Performance and Context Bull Market: The pattern performs particularly well when it appears during a corrective phase of an uptrend, with a profit target reached in 70% of cases within three months. Gain Potential: The maximum gain potential can reach 32% in half of cases during a bullish breakout, according to statistical studies on equity markets. Formation Time: The wider the wedge and the steeper the trend lines, the faster and more violent the post-breakout upward movement will be. Comparative Summary of Success Rates: Criteria Rate Observed Frequency Bullish Exit 82% Price Target Achieved 63% to 88% Reversal Pattern 55% to 68% Pullback After Breakout 53% to 56% False Breakouts (False Exits) 10% to 27% Bullish False Breakouts Leading to a Downside 3% Points of Attention The falling wedge is a rare and difficult pattern to correctly identify, requiring at least five contact points to be valid. Performance is best when the breakout occurs around 60% of the pattern's length and when volume increases at the time of the breakout. Pullbacks, although frequent, tend to weaken the initial bullish momentum. Conclusion The falling wedge has a remarkable success rate, with more than 8 out of 10 cases resulting in a bullish exit and a price target being reached in the majority of cases. However, it remains essential to validate the pattern with other technical signals (volume, momentum) and to remain vigilant against false breakouts, even if their rate is relatively low. When mastered, this pattern proves to be a valuable tool for traders looking for optimized entry points on bullish reversals.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
5
Falling Wedge Trading Pattern: Unique Features and Trading RulesFalling Wedge Trading Pattern: Unique Features and Trading Rules Various chart patterns give an indication of possible market direction. A falling wedge is one such formation that indicates a possible bullish reversal. This FXOpen article will help you understand whether the falling wedge pattern is bullish or bearish, what its formation signifies about the market direction, and how it can be used to spot trading opportunities. What Is a Falling Wedge Pattern? Also known as the descending wedge, the falling wedge technical analysis chart pattern is a bullish formation that typically occurs in the downtrend and signals a trend reversal. It forms when an asset's price drops, but the range of price movements starts to get narrower. As the formation contracts towards the end, the buyers completely absorb the selling pressure and consolidate their energy before beginning to push the market higher. A falling wedge pattern means the end of a market correction and an upside reversal. How Can You Spot a Falling Wedge on a Price Chart? This pattern is usually spotted in a downtrend, which would indicate a possible bullish reversal. However, it may appear in an uptrend and signal a trend continuation after a market correction. Either way, the falling wedge provides bullish signals. The descending formation generally has the following features. - Price Action. The price trades lower, forming lower highs and lower lows. - Trendlines. Traders draw two trendlines. One connects the lower highs, and the other connects the lower lows. Finally, they intersect towards a convergence point. Each line should connect at least two points. However, the greater the number, the higher the chance of the market reversal. - Contraction. The contraction in the price range signals decreasing volatility in the market. As the formation matures, new lows contract as the selling pressure decreases. Thus, the lower trendline acts as support, and the price consolidating within the narrowing range creates a coiled spring effect, finally leading to a sharp move on the upside. The price breaks through the upper trendline resistance, indicating that sellers are losing control and buyers are gaining momentum, resulting in an upward move. - Volume. The trading volume ideally decreases as the pattern forms, and the buying volume increases with the breakout above the upper trendline, reflecting a shift in momentum towards the buyers. Falling and Rising Wedge: Differences There are two types of wedge formation – rising (ascending) and falling (descending). An ascending wedge occurs when the highs and lows rise, while a descending wedge pattern has lower highs and lows. In an ascending formation, the slope of the lows is steeper and converges with the upper trendline at some point, while in a descending formation, the slope of the highs is steeper and converges with the support trendline at some point. Usually, a rising wedge indicates that sellers are taking control, resulting in a downside breakdown. Conversely, a descending wedge pattern indicates that buyers are gaining momentum after consolidation, generally resulting in an upside breakout. The Falling Wedge: Trading Rules Trading the falling wedge involves waiting for the price to break above the upper line, typically considered a bullish reversal. The pattern’s conformity increases when it is combined with other technical indicators. - Entry According to theory, the ideal entry point is after the price has broken above the wedge’s upper boundary, indicating a potential upside reversal. Furthermore, this descending wedge breakout should be accompanied by an increase in trading volume to confirm the validity of the signal. The price may retest the resistance level before continuing its upward movement, providing another opportunity to enter a long position. However, the entry point should be based on the traders' risk management plan and trading strategy. - Take Profit It is essential to determine an appropriate target level. Traders typically set a profit target by measuring the height of the widest part of the formation and adding it to the breakout point. Another approach some traders use is to look for significant resistance levels above the breakout point, such as previous swing highs. - Stop Loss Traders typically place their stop-loss orders just below the lower boundary of the wedge. Also, the stop-loss level can be based on technical or psychological support levels, such as previous swing lows. In addition, the stop-loss level should be set according to the trader's risk tolerance and overall trading strategy. Trading Example In the chart above, there is a falling wedge. A trader opened a buy position on the close of the breakout candlestick. A stop loss was placed below the wedge’s lower boundary, while the take-profit target was equal to the pattern’s widest part. Falling Wedge and Other Patterns Here are chart patterns that can be confused with a falling wedge. Falling Wedge vs Bullish Flag These are two distinct chart formations used to identify potential buying opportunities in the market, but there are some differences between the two. A descending wedge is a bullish setup, forming in a downtrend. It is characterised by two converging trendlines that slope downward, signalling decreasing selling pressure. A breakout above the upper trendline suggests a bullish move. A bullish flag appears after a strong upward movement and forms a rectangular shape with parallel trendlines that slope slightly downward or move sideways. This formation represents a brief consolidation before the market resumes its upward trajectory. While the falling wedge indicates a potential shift in a downtrend, the bullish flag suggests a continuation of an uptrend. Falling Wedge vs Bearish Pennant ​​The falling wedge features two converging trendlines that slope downward, indicating decreasing selling pressure and often signalling a bullish reversal when the price breaks above the upper trendline. Conversely, the bearish pennant forms after a significant downward movement and is characterised by converging trendlines that create a small symmetrical triangle. This pattern represents a consolidation phase before the market continues its downward trend upon breaking below the lower trendline. While the falling wedge suggests a potential bullish move, the bearish pennant indicates a continuation of the bearish trend. Falling Wedge vs Descending Triangle The falling wedge consists of two downward-sloping converging trendlines, indicating decreasing selling pressure and often signalling a bullish reversal when the price breaks above the upper trendline. In contrast, the descending triangle features a flat lower trendline and a downward-sloping upper trendline, suggesting a buildup of selling pressure and typically signalling a bearish continuation when the price breaks below the flat lower trendline. While the falling wedge is associated with a potential bullish move, the descending triangle generally indicates a bearish trend. Falling Wedge: Advantages and Limitations Like any technical pattern, the falling wedge has both limitations and advantages. Advantages - High Probability of a Reversal. The falling wedge is often seen as a strong, bullish signal, especially when it occurs after a downtrend. It suggests that selling pressure is subsiding, and a reversal to the upside may be imminent. - Clear Entry and Exit Points. The pattern provides clear points for entering and exiting trades. Traders often enter when the price breaks out above the upper trendline and set stop-loss orders below a recent low within the formation. - Versatility. The wedge can be used in various market conditions. It is effective in both continuation and reversal scenarios, though it is more commonly associated with bullish reversals. - Widely Recognised. Since the falling wedge is a well-known formation, it is often self-fulfilling to some extent, as many traders recognise and act on it, further driving the market. Limitations - False Breakouts. Like many chart patterns, the falling wedge is prone to false breakouts. Prices may briefly move above the resistance line but then fall back below, trapping traders. - Dependence on Market Context. The effectiveness of the falling wedge can vary depending on broader market conditions. In a strong downtrend, it might fail to result in a significant reversal. - Requires Confirmation. The wedge should be confirmed with other technical indicators or analysis tools, such as volumes or moving averages, to increase the likelihood of an effective trade. Relying solely on the falling wedge can be risky. - Limited Use in Low-Volatility Markets. In markets with low volatility, the falling wedge may not be as reliable, as price movements might not be strong enough to confirm the falling wedge's breakout. The Bottom Line The falling wedge is a powerful chart pattern that can offer valuable insights into potential trend reversals or continuations, depending on its context within the broader market. By understanding and effectively utilising the falling wedge in your strategy, you can enhance your ability to identify many trading opportunities. As with all trading tools, combining it with a comprehensive trading plan and proper risk management is crucial. FAQ Is a Falling Wedge Bullish? Yes, the falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern in an uptrend, and it acts as a bullish reversal formation in a bearish market. What Does a Falling Wedge Pattern Indicate? It indicates that the buyers are absorbing the selling pressure, which is reflected in the narrower price range and finally results in an upside breakout. What Is the Falling Wedge Pattern Rule? The falling wedge is a technical analysis formation that occurs when the price forms lower highs and lower lows within converging trendlines, sloping downward. Its rule is that a breakout above the upper trendline signals a potential reversal to the upside, often indicating the end of a downtrend or the continuation of a strong uptrend. How to Trade Descending Wedge Patterns? To trade descending wedges, traders first identify them by ensuring that the price is making lower highs and lows within converging trendlines. Then, they wait for the price to break out above the upper trendline, ideally accompanied by increased trading volume, which confirms the breakout. After the breakout, a common approach is to enter a long position, aiming to take advantage of the anticipated upward movement. What Is the Target of the Descending Wedge Pattern? The target for a descending wedge is typically set by measuring the maximum width of the wedge at its widest part and projecting that distance upwards from the breakout point. This projection gives a potential price target. What Is the Entry Point for a Falling Wedge? The entry point for a falling wedge is ideally just after the breakout above the upper trendline. Some traders prefer to wait for a retest of the broken trendline, which may act as a new support level, before entering a trade to confirm the breakout. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
Bonds Don’t Lie: The Signal is ClearU.S. 10-year Treasuries are a crucial cog in the global financial machine, serving as a benchmark borrowing rate, a tool for asset valuation, and a gauge of the longer-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation. As such, I keep a close eye on 10-year note futures, as they can offer clues on directional risks for bond prices and yields. The price action over the past few days has sent a clear and obvious signal as to where the risks lie: prices higher, yields lower. Futures had been grinding lower within a falling wedge for several weeks but broke higher last Friday on decent volumes following soft U.S. household spending data. It has since extended bullish the move, reclaiming the 200-day moving average before surging above key resistance at 115’09’0 after Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday. RSI (14) is trending higher but isn’t yet overbought, while MACD has crossed the signal line above 0, confirming the bullish momentum signal. That favours further upside, putting resistance at 116’11’0 and 118’12’0 on the immediate radar. For those who prefer it expressed in yield terms, that’s around 4% and 3.8% respectively. Good luck! DS
CBOT:TN1!Education
by FOREXcom
9
Best Chart Patterns to Buy Gold in Uptrend One of the proven strategies to safely buy gold in uptrend is to look for THESE chart patterns. In this article, I will teach 4 best bullish price action patterns for Gold trading. All the patterns that we will discuss work perfectly on a daily, 4h, 1h time frames. The first strong bullish pattern, that we will discuss, is a bullish flag pattern. The pattern is based on 2 important elements: a bullish impulse leg and a bearish correctional movement afterward. The highs and lows of a correctional movement should respect 2 falling trend lines: one being a vertical resistance and one being a vertical support. These 2 trend lines will compose a falling parallel channel. Your strong bullish signal will be a breakout of the resistance of the flag - a candle close above that. The trading strategy of this pattern is very straightforward . After a violation of the resistance of the flag is confirmed , buy the market immediately or on a retest. Place stop loss order below the lowest low of the pattern, initial target - the high of the pattern with a potential bullish continuation to a new high. Look at a bullish flag pattern on Gold on a 4H time frame. A bullish breakout of its upper boundary was a perfect signal to buy XAUUSD. The variation of a bullish flag pattern is a falling wedge pattern. In a wedge pattern, a correctional movement occurs within a contracting channel based on 2 converging trend lines. The same strategy is applied for buying wedge pattern after a breakout . Above, you can see a falling wedge on Gold chart on a daily that was formed after a completion of a sharp bullish wave. Bullish violation of the resistance line of the pattern was a strong call to open long position. Trading hundreds of bullish flags and falling wedges, I noticed that the wedge patter has a little bit higher accuracy. The next chart pattern for buying Gold is called Ascending Triangle. After completing a bullish impulse and setting a higher high, the market should start consolidating . A consolidation should have a specific shape: the price should start respecting a horizontal resistance based on the last high and drop from that, setting equal high and a consequent higher low after every bearish movement. A reliable bullish signal will be a breakout - a candle close above a horizontal resistance line based on the equal highs. Buy Gold immediately after a violation, or set a buy limit order on a retest of a broken resistance. Safe stop loss will be at least below the last higher low. If you are taking the trade on 1H time frame, set it below the first higher low. Take profit will be the next potentially strong resistance. With the absence of historic resistances, your goal can be the next psychological level based on round numbers. That's a perfect example of the ascending triangle pattern that formed on Gold on a daily time frame. After a breakout of its resistance, a bullish rally initiated. Usually, the pattern is considered to be completed when the price sets at least 3 higher lows and 3 highers highs. If only 2 equals highs and 2 higher lows are set, such a pattern will be called Cup & Handle. Entry, stop loss and target rules are the same as in ascending triangle trading. That's a nice cup & handle pattern on Gold on a 4H. Violation of its resistance triggered a significant trend-following movement. The last pattern for buying Gold is horizontal parallel channel. It should form after a completion of a bullish wave and represent a consolidation and indecision. The price should set equal highs and consequent equal lows, respecting horizontal support and resistance. A strong bullish signal to buy Gold will be a breakout of a horizontal resistance of the channel and a candle close above. The principles of its trading strategy are very similar. Open long position on Gold immediately after a candle close above the resistance or on its retest. Stop loss should be placed below the support of the channel. Take profit will be the next historic or (if there is no) psychological level. Check this horizontal channel that was spotted on a daily time frame on Gold chart. After quite an extended consolidation within, the price violated its upper boundary and went up. All these chart patterns have a unique shape and structure and are very easy to recognize. Apply them for trend-trading Gold on any time frame and good luck in your journey. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
Falling Wedge Pattern: Cocoa FuturesThis is the map of how to trade this rare chart pattern. This is a textbook sample of Falling Wedge continuation pattern that played out with impressive accuracy. We have a strong uptrend in 2024 that has been changed by a large consolidation that took place for the rest of 2024 as it has built the large Falling Wedge (continuation) pattern. One should focus on the following crucial points and measurements: 1. breakout point where price rises above trendline resistance it acts as a buy entry trigger (green segment) 2. stop loss - it is located below the lowest valley preceding breakout (red segment) 3. widest part of the pattern - use it to measure the distance to the target adding it to breakout point (blue arc) 4. target (yellow dashed segment) all of above key parameters are highlighted on the chart. It's amazing how accurately the price grew towards the target booking over 60% profit. Next time you can use this map as a guidance.
ICEUS:CC1!Education
by aibek
Uptrend & Downtrend Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern TutorialA bullish falling wedge is a charting pattern that signals a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of its key characteristics: Shape: The pattern forms a wedge that slopes downward, with the upper trendline connecting the highs and the lower trendline connecting the lows. The key is that the highs and lows get closer together as the pattern develops. Trend: It typically forms during a downtrend, indicating that selling pressure is decreasing. Breakout: The pattern is bullish when the price breaks above the upper trendline. This breakout suggests that the downward trend is losing momentum, and an upward trend may follow. Volume: During the falling wedge formation, volume tends to decrease, which supports the idea that selling pressure is diminishing. Retest: After the breakout, it's common for the price to retest the upper trendline, and if it holds, it provides further confirmation of the bullish reversal. Example Imagine a stock that has been falling for several months. The price forms lower highs and lower lows, creating a narrowing wedge. Suddenly, the price breaks above the upper trendline with increased volume, signaling a potential reversal and the start of an upward trend.
NASDAQ:NVTSEducation
by RonnieV29
4
Learn Best Price Action Patterns For Trend-Following Trading In this educational articles, I will teach you the best price action patterns for Trend-Following Trading Forex. 📍Ascending & Descending Triangles The ascending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish. The pattern consist of 2 main elements: a horizontal neckline based on the equal highs, a rising trend line based on the higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the level of the last higher low. 🎯Take profit is the next historical resistance. Look at an ascending triangle formation on EURUSD on an hourly time frame. On the left, you can see the structure of the pattern and on the right, the trading plan. 📍The descending triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish. The pattern consist of 2 main elements: a horizontal neckline based on the equal lows, a falling trend line based on the lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a neckline of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the level of the last lower high. 🎯Take profit is the next historical support. Above is a perfect descending triangle pattern that I spotted on GBPUSD on a 4H time frame. 📍Bullish & Bearish Wedges The bullish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside. The pattern consist of 2 contracting falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. Above is a falling wedge pattern that I found on GBPUSD. The pattern is formed after a strong bullish impulse. A trigger to buy is a bullish breakout of its resistance. —————— The bearish wedge pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside. The pattern consist of 2 contracting rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. To correctly sell this rising wedge pattern on EURUSD, we should wait for a breakout of its horizontal support and then sell the market on its retest. 📍Bullish & Bearish Flags The bullish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish and the pattern is directed to the downside. The pattern consist of 2 parallel falling trend lines based on the lower lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying below the low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. Above, you can see a perfect example of a bullish flag pattern on EURUSD on a 4H time frame and its trading strategy. —————— The bearish flag pattern will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish and the pattern is directed to the upside. The pattern consist of 2 parallel rising trend lines based on the higher highs and higher lows. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying above the high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. Above is a bearish flag pattern on GBPUSD and a full plan to sell the market based on it. 📍Bullish & Bearish Symmetrical Triangles The bullish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bullish. The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bullish breakout of a resistance of the pattern and candle close above. 📈The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least below the last higher low of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the high of the pattern. This bullish symmetrical triangle on EURUSD on an hourly time frame is a perfect example of a bullish trend-following pattern. —————— The bearish symmetrical triangle will be considered to be a trend-following pattern if the impulse leg preceding the formation of the pattern is bearish. The pattern consist of 2 contracting symmetrical trend lines based on the higher lows and lower highs. ❗️The trigger is a bearish breakout of a support of the pattern and candle close below. 📉The position is opened on a retest. 🔴Stop loss is lying at least above the last lower high of the pattern. 🎯Take profit is the low of the pattern. On the left chart, you can see a structure of a valid symmetrical triangle. On the right chart, you can see how to trade it properly. The main difficulty related to trading these patterns is their recognition. You should train your eyes to recognize them on a price chart. Once you learn to do that, I guarantee you that you will make tons of money trading them.
Education
by VasilyTrader
11
Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in Trading Introduction The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use. Success Rate and Performance -Key Statistics Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend -Breakout Direction Bearish: 60% of cases Bullish: 40% of cases Contextual Reliability Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38% After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9% Important Considerations The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation. Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial. Complementary Indicators -Volume Gradual decrease during formation Significant increase during breakout -Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences -Moving Averages Crossovers: Signal trend changes -Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge -Momentum Indicators MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend -Other Elements Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals Conclusion The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance. _______________________________________________ Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner: -The confirmed breakout Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge. Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. -The retest Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance. Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend. -The post-breakout consolidation Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout. Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend. -The confirmed divergences Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD. Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support. -Timing with Japanese Candlesticks Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud. Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern. -Important Considerations Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively. Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade. Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions. By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
A textbook reversal signal..And if you do not know what I mean then see the linked idea below ‘the study’. Now the market cap is way to small for my interest but it might appeal to someone or indeed someone who is interested in the long game. The reversal pattern is one we see play out time and time again in all markets. Most recently on a crypto called CFX (see example below). The psychology between buyers and sellers is very specific and is told in great detail on this particular pattern. The last 6-day candle to print on this chart informed you of the great weakness amongst sellers. This crucial.. for the moment demand returns there practically no resistance until new buyers sell into the market. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. It is probable? No Ww Type: trade Risk: 1% Timeframe: now Return: At least 500% The study Example
Education
by without_worries
4
Trading Diverging Chart PatternsContinuing our discussion on trading chart patterns, this is our next tutorial after Trading Converging Chart Patterns This tutorial is based on our earlier articles on pattern identification and classification. Algorithmic Identification of Chart Patterns Flag and Pennant Chart Patterns In this tutorial, we concentrate on diverging patterns and how to define rules to trade them systematically. The diverging patterns discussed in this tutorial are: Rising Wedge (Diverging Type) Falling Wedge (Diverging Type) Diverging Triangle Rising Triangle (Diverging Type) Falling Triangle (Diverging Type) 🎲 Historical Bias and General Perception Before we look into our method of systematic trading of patterns, let's have a glance at the general bias of trading diverging patterns. 🟡 The Dynamics of Diverging Wedge Patterns Diverging Wedge patterns are typically indicative of the Elliott Wave Structure's diagonal waves, potentially marking the ending diagonal waves. That means that the patterns may signal the ending of a long term trend. Hence, the diverging rising wedge is considered as bearish, whereas the diverging falling wedge is considered as bullish when it falls under Wave 5 of an impulse or Wave C of a zigzag or flat. For an in-depth exploration, refer to our detailed analysis in Decoding Wedge Patterns Both rising wedge and falling wedge of expanding type offers lower risk reward (High risk and low reward) in short term as the expanding nature of the pattern will lead to wider stop loss. 🎯 Rising Wedge (Expanding Type) Expanding Rising Wedge pattern is historically viewed with bearish bias. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Expanding Type) Expanding Falling Wedge pattern is historically viewed with bullish bias. 🟡 The Dynamics of Diverging Triangle Patterns Diverging pattern in general means increased volatility. Increased volatility during the strong trends also mean reducing confidence that may signal reversal. 🎲 Alternate Approach towards trading diverging patterns Lack of back testing data combined with subjectivity in Elliott wave interpretation and pattern interpretation makes it difficult to rely on the traditional approach. The alternative method involves treating all expanding patterns equally and define a systematic trading approach. This involves. When the pattern is formed, define a breakout zone. One side of the breakout zone will act as breakout point and the other side will act as reversal point. Depending on the breakout or reversal, trade direction is identified. Define the rules for entry, stop, target and invalidation range for both directions. This can be based on specific fib ratio based on pattern size. Backtest and Forward test the strategy and collect data with respect to win ratio, risk reward and profit factor to understand the profitability of patterns and the methodology. Breaking it down further. 🟡 Defining The Pattern Trade Conditions Base can be calculated in the following ways. Distance between max and min points of the pattern. (Vertical size of the pattern) Last zigzag swing of the pattern (This is generally the largest zigzag swing of the pattern due to its expanding nature) This Base is used for calculation of other criteria. 🎯 Breakout Zone - Entry Points Breakout zone can be calculated based on the following. Long Entry (top) = Last Pivot + Base * (Entry Ratio) Short Entry (bottom) = Last Pivot - Base * (Entry Ratio) If the direction of the last zigzag swing is downwards, then top will form the reversal confirmation and bottom will form the breakout confirmation. Similarly, if the direction of the last zigzag swing is upwards, then top will become the breakout confirmation point and bottom will act as reversal confirmation point. 🎯 Stops Long entry can act as stop for short and vice versa. However, we can also apply different rule for calculation of stop - this includes using different fib ratio for stop calculation in the reverse direction. Example. Long Stop = Last Pivot - Base * (Stop Ratio) Short Stop = Last Pivot + Base * (Entry Ratio) 🎯 Invalidation Invalidation price is a level where the trade direction for a particular pattern needs to be ignored or invalidated. Invalidation price can be calculated based on specific fib ratios. It is recommended to use wider invalidation range. This is to protect ignoring the potential trades due to volatility. Long Invalidation Price = Last Pivot - Base * (Invalidation Ratio) Short Invalidation Price = Last Pivot + Base * (Invalidation Ratio) 🎯 Targets Targets can either be set based on fib ratios, as explained for other parameters. However, the better way to set targets is based on expected risk reward. Target Price = Entry + (Entry-Stop) X Risk Reward 🟡 Back Test and Forward Test and Measure the Profit Factor It is important to perform sufficient testing to understand the profitability of the strategy before using them on the live trades. Use multiple timeframes and symbols to perform a series of back tests and forward tests, and collect as much data as possible on the historical outcomes of the strategy. Profit Factor of the strategy can be calculated by using a simple formula Profit Factor = (Wins/Losses) X Risk Reward 🟡 Use Filters and Different Combinations Filters will help us in filtering out noise and trade only the selective patterns. The filters can include a simple logic such as trade long only if price is above 200 SMA and trade short only if price is below 200 SMA. Or it can be as complex as looking into the divergence signals or other complex variables.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Trendoscope
7
Falling wedge aka continued patternThe formation of any triangle is a direction indication relevant to where you find it as some can be a warning if reversal. The market moves in grids(zones). Relevant to sentiment of traders and news. It always moves in wave 🌊 and in those waves we have patterns like ABCD resumption. Failure swings💰👃, 🐂 bullish breakouts, traps ECT. The thing is impulsive moves is where you want to be even though it may be a correction. The thing with that is only with rising wedge patterns that are confirmed by long wicked 🔨 that indicate a move to the downside and this is like I said the day being under pressure from all the wicks formed by sellers and buyers showing no strength or news keeping it suppressed. This is your classic break and retest strategy. Like I said the money is in the trend and the impulses is always where you want to be mostly breakouts from levels continuing with the direction of the day - down to MN if you that good. The SL of the pattern invalidates the idea and if any near term trails can be hit we get even better low entries. Remember your idea is only invalid when it doesn't hold weekly and MN TF key levels. This can also be seen by the RSI as it shows the strength of candlesticks relevant to highs and lows of the sessions. Risk management is key especially if you have an account from 2$-100$. We only increase size when the accounts over 250-500$ which will give you a chance at playing 0.05 not saying it isn't possible at 70$ but you risk blowing it faster than a single 0.01 that just loses 1-5$ depending how the setup looks. If you feel like it won't work the SL should be 100 pips of not 10-50 pips which is 0.30cents to 0.72c$ Entry will be a breakout. And anything playing and rejected in that area can be waited for a signal to go long. Obviously if you don't have money to blow on risk like a 0.01 and lose 20$ in one go than don't. You risk smaller that's why we wait for lows or zone to enter example 0.01 and a lose of 2-4$. You can always trade gold with a small amount and turn it to a lot thing is it will kick you out if you dont take profits or secure them in positive SL of 1_5$ The TP is usually the inside of the pattern or the impulse before. Remember wave move in 5-1-2-3-4 and five. 2-correction can't be a triangle so it's usually rectangle 4- correction Triangle 📐 and it moves up 3-the largest impulse bigger than wave1-&5, but never small than 1 1impulse can be an extension (1-2-3-4-5 wave in wave one ), 5 can be the same as ones length Now the thing about waves is the counting that gets difficult especially if the complex corrections. Therefore for m30, you play the day and if it doesn't hit one target or the second you positive SL and wait for better entries. Gold can make you bank if you play it right, I mean risk manage your account to small losses and close large ones you can always enter again another place a ladder positions. Please like if this education is helpful 🙏
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by GCGoldenCircle
2
Trading Converging Chart PatternsWe discussed identification and classification of different chart patterns and chart pattern extensions in our previous posts. Algorithmic Identification of Chart Patterns Flag and Pennant Chart Patterns In this installment, we shift our focus towards the practical trading strategies applicable to a select group of these patterns. Acknowledging that a universal trading rule cannot apply to all patterns, we narrow our examination to those of the converging variety. We will specifically address the following converging patterns: Rising Wedge (Converging Type) Falling Wedge (Converging Type) Converging Triangle Rising Triangle (Converging Type) Falling Triangle (Converging Type) This selection will guide our discussion on how to approach these patterns from a trading perspective. 🎲 Historical Bias and General Perception Each pattern we've discussed carries a historical sentiment that is widely regarded as a guideline for trading. Before we delve into our specific trading strategies, it's crucial to understand these historical sentiments and the general market interpretations associated with them. 🟡 The Dynamics of Contracting Wedge Patterns Contracting Wedge patterns are typically indicative of the Elliott Wave Structure's diagonal waves, potentially marking either the beginning or conclusion of these waves. A contracting wedge within a leading diagonal may experience a brief retracement before the trend resumes. Conversely, if found in an ending diagonal, it could signal the termination of wave 5 or C, possibly hinting at a significant trend reversal. The prevailing view suggests that these patterns usually precede a short-term directional shift: Rising Wedges are seen as bearish signals, while Falling Wedges are interpreted as bullish. It's essential to consider the trend prior to the formation of these patterns, as it significantly aids in determining their context within the Elliott Wave cycles, specifically identifying them as part of waves 1, A, 5, or C. For an in-depth exploration, refer to our detailed analysis in Decoding Wedge Patterns 🎯 Rising Wedge (Converging Type) The Rising Wedge pattern, historically viewed with a bearish bias, suggests that a downward trend is more likely upon a breakout below its lower trend line. This perception positions the pattern as a signal for traders to consider bearish positions once the price breaks through this critical support. 🎯 Falling Wedge (Converging Type) The Falling Wedge pattern is traditionally seen through a bullish lens, indicating potential upward momentum when the price surpasses its upper trend line. This established viewpoint suggests initiating long positions as a strategic response to such a breakout, aligning with the pattern's optimistic forecast. 🟡 Contracting Triangle Patterns Contracting Triangles, encompassing Converging, Ascending, and Descending Triangles, are particularly noteworthy when they appear as part of the Elliott Wave's B or 2 waves. These patterns typically signal a continuation of the pre-existing trend that preceded the triangle's formation. This principle also underpins the Pennant Pattern, which emerges following an impulse wave, indicating a pause before the trend's resumption. 🎲 Alternate Way of Looking into Converging Patterns Main issue with historical perception are: There is no clear back testing data to prove whether the general perception is correct or more profitable. Elliott Waves concepts are very much subjective and can be often difficult for beginners and misleading even for experts. So, the alternative way is to treat all the converging patterns equally and devise a method to trade using a universal way. This allows us to back test our thesis and be definitive about the profitability of these patterns. Here are our simple steps to devise and test a converging pattern based strategy. Consider all converging patterns as bidirectional. Meaning, they can be traded on either side. Thus chose to trade based on the breakout. If the price beaks up, then trade long and if the price breaks down, then trade short. For each direction, define criteria for entry, stop, target prices and also an invalidation price at which the trade is ignored even without entry. Backtest and Forward test the strategy and collect data with respect to win ratio, risk reward and profit factor to understand the profitability of patterns and the methodology. Now, let's break it further down. 🟡 Defining The Pattern Trade Conditions Measure the ending distance between the trend line pairs and set breakout points above and beyond the convergence zone. 🎯 Entry Points - These can be formed on either side of the convergence zone. Adding a small buffer on top of the convergence zone is ideal for setting the entry points of converging patterns. Formula for Entry can be: Long Entry Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Entry Ratio Short Entry Price = Bottom - (Top-Bottom) X Entry Ratio Whereas Top refers to the upper side of the convergence zone and bottom refers to the lower side of the convergence zone. Entry Ratio is the buffer ratio to apply on top of the convergence zone to get entry points. 🎯 Stop Price - Long entry can act as stop for short orders and the short entry can act as stop price for long orders. However, this is not mandatory and different logic for stops can be applied for both sides. Formula for Stop Can be Long Stop Price = Bottom - (Top - Bottom) X Stop Ratio Short Stop Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Stop Ratio 🎯 Target Price - It is always good to set targets based on desired risk reward ratio. That means, the target should always depend on the distance between entry and stop price. The general formula for Target can be: Target Price = Entry + (Entry-Stop) X Risk Reward 🎯 Invalidation Price - Invalidation price is a level where the trade direction for a particular pattern needs to be ignored or invalidated. This price need to be beyond stop price. In general, trade is closed when a pattern hits invalidation price. Formula for Invalidation price is the same as that of Stop Price, but Invalidation Ratio is more than that of Stop Ratio Long Invalidation Price = Bottom - (Top - Bottom) X Invalidation Ratio Short Invalidation Price = Top + (Top - Bottom) X Invalidation Ratio 🟡 Back Test and Forward Test and Measure the Profit Factor It is important to perform sufficient testing to understand the profitability of the strategy before using them on the live trades. Use multiple timeframes and symbols to perform a series of back tests and forward tests, and collect as much data as possible on the historical outcomes of the strategy. Profit Factor of the strategy can be calculated by using a simple formula Profit Factor = (Wins/Losses) X Risk Reward 🟡 Use Filters and Different Combinations Filters will help us in filtering out noise and trade only the selective patterns. The filters can include a simple logic such as trade long only if price is above 200 SMA and trade short only if price is below 200 SMA. Or it can be as complex as looking into the divergence signals or other complex variables.
Education
by Trendoscope
13