CAN YOU TRADE LONG TERM STONK CHARTS? Upper side resistance = 4500. Lower side support = 1500. Good luck have fun. YIELDS IS A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW! YIELDS IS A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW! YIELDS IS A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW!
Watch for a potential overnight correction in risk assets tonight or tomorrow off the back of a large spike in yields to 1.50%. Are we finally seeing the catalyst we've been waiting for? God I hope so... Follow the conversation live at www.hedgeoftheworld.com
Cup completed as 10YR moves past March crash high. Cup depth ~0.7 so if this completes expect breakout to 2.0. This would probably effect markets drastically. Not fin. advice.
Global futures traded mixed on Monday morning to kick-off a busy earnings week, with over 100 companies in the S&P, and 13 in the DOW releasing earnings. We'll see the latest figures from Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Caterpillar, and 3M to name a few. According to John Butters at FactSet, "In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 22.4% above estimates,...
If I were a betting man, I'd say the 10Y yield looks poised to test 1.20% as early as this week. A weak 20Y auction which saw $24 Billion in demand at a significantly higher yield than December, could be indicating weakness in the bond market.
After Friday's volatile options expiry, global futures are surging (after a somewhat muted MLK day), erasing most of Friday's losses as investors found more risk appetite. This was off the back of a potential dovish speech from Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to speak at 10AM this morning. Asian stocks were notably higher, while...
The risk free rate took a breather yesterday, and then again today, as (yesterday) the 10Y auction was a smash success, followed by a near record 30Y auction today. We saw $38 Billion in demand in the 10Y auction, driving yields lower, toward the 1.11% level. Then after the 30Y auction today, the 10Y yield was hammered back to 1.08%. Members of the FED made their...
It's impeachment day 2.0! US futures continue to drift sideways as Vix and the dollar hold on to a 23, and 90 handle respectively. CPI came in at 0.4%, with Core CPI rising 0.1%. Investors will be on the look out for the FED's Beige Book at 2PM, which should give an indication on future monetary policy, and may even firm up some rumours of future rate hikes off...
I've been hearing from many of my colleagues, most of whom are experienced traders, that rates are not going to rise anytime soon. 2023, 2024, 2025, all common projections for when rates will rise. Yet, we've observed the 10Y yield rising a whopping 120% since the beginning of August, to 1.13% today. Morgan Stanley said in a recent report, which I've mentioned in...
50 period MA on the weekly is being heavily tested, and we've been in a beastly uptrend since August. If you look at the longer-term behaviour of rates, you see a beautifullly defined channel, with consistent breakouts above the 50 period MA. Time for a bond market correction, and a reassessment (and repricing) of the risk-free rate. Cheers!
Where do rates go from here guys?
Probability: 65% The market will keep going up and i use the Vwap line as my resistance. Big opportinuity and the market will keep going up and achieve our TakeProfit and may reach the Vwap line and cut it and keep going up. Take profit: 139'09'5 Stop loss: 139'03'5
Probability: 65% The market will keep going down Stop loss & Take profit => on the Chart
10 yr looks strong stock market should continue to melt up. Risk on.
Treasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks. If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators. Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will...
H4 on ten year is holding overbought while H1 ping pongs between the 2 zones of over sold overbought. Daily is still way oversold. The blue line is SP500. Analysis we r in the melt up of this bull market since march. Trade quick take profits buy the big dip coming
Blue line is the 10 yr, they should start to diverge as yields rise and VIX falls. (in the perfect bull world)