Could post a problem for the Equity Complex. The ROC's would begin to increase again, averaging 3.12% would push TNX to 1.71 very quickly. This would not provide anything but a SELL for TECH. The DX has been supportive of Higher Prices for Equities as it remains in a small Countertrend. The JPY/USDX is the primary cause. Once the Fuse is lit, it is Blue Skies
Substantial Further Progress in Trade. $120Billion in Taxpayer's Future Monies down the drain. Job Creation does not come from the Prop in Equities. Share Buybacks do not create Jobs nor do they have a lasting effect upon Economic Activity. They do, however - create issues for Bond Holders as Inflation takes hold and remains persistent. Wall Street fooled...
Pricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a...
The Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Interest rates are driving the market.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these...
With DX Strength coming from the JPY Pair... The Red Swan continues to build from our months long indicated Vector - China. The CCP announced they will only bail out Domestics. ETF Passives hold, indirectly, a far larger stake in China's Economy then is openly acknowledged. Never has the South China Sea - been this active militarily. TSML... in questions as to...
The Bond Markets are revolting once again. Taper or not, doesn't matter, Inflation has taken hold. Either way the FED is being challenged. Heads they lose, Tails the lose. Expectations are what they are... Demand Push, Supply Pull. Demand Pull, Supply Push. C O S T Strangles. Jerome is done.
As the 10Year Note approaches a pivotal juncture, the DX begins to show signs of a DX Strength Trade. The 1.41% Level should provide a challenge to the YCC analogue. With the effects of Stimulus largely abating and the $3.5 Trillion Stimmy for "Infrastructure" in question... We are setup for some extreme Volatility.
Rates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at...
In this Market update I continue to cover what is going on in these unstoppable markets. Whether it's up, down or sideways. There is always a good reason for what is currently in progress. Some people say that it will keep going up until it stops, so how far can they throw off the social mood? It depends on who is in control and I think we all know who that...
Financials rallied on DX Weakness, not Bond Strength. The 6 Month trend is at an important juncture this week as we move into September's BIS Square. ZN Level @ Support 132.180 New contracts front load VX.
Go long TBT as a play on rising rates. It appears that the 10yr has formed a double bottom and is ready to reverse. The economy is strong and the recovery is going well. The Delta variant is currently peaking so things will only get better going forward. Technicals look good on the TBT chart and the fundamentals backing the thesis are solid. TBT is a good...
*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS *** 10Y Treasury and Gold's Price: Gold is correlated strongly (92%) with the 10Y Treasury. During 2020, during the depths of the pandemic, we saw 10Y rates under 0.5%. This was the primary catalyst for Gold to find its new ATH during August of 2020. This strong correlation makes...
Seems to be a very range bound zone.. the bullish and bearish zones are marked... still it will be difficult to cross the bullish zone...
Seems to be a bear territory... Not giving a good feeling for the future of economy. Like. Share. Follow
we probably have a small push here off the bullish hammer reversal then a dip to 1.08% which will cause another drop to stock markets but this level should prove as strong support & then the 10 yr will move higher IMO
Since January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply...
The important Context of "Pristine Collateral" as we have addressed repeatedly is the Salient Issue - The Return of Capital. The availability of T-Bills remains in an extremely short supply. The Federal Reserve - $230 Billion at last disclosure. The United States Treasury - $0. T-Bill terms of 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks for issuance have seen the...
10yr Yields peaked at ~1.70 as the Federal Reserve began YCC (Yield Curve Control) well in advance of recognition by the Retail Bond Market. With a shortage of T-Bills and Janet Yellen attempting to Fund the Fiscal Malfeasance out the Curve in order to reduce Short Term funding. With CASH mounting in Money Market Funds, there remains a large pool of Cash with...