Still bullish SB as it appreciated over the past month. It really gained momentum has it had to break out from oversold conditions. What happened over the course was the term structure (future spreads) are now in backwardation for the entire next year. This leaves me with remaining bullish as it foreshadows supply tightness coming out of Brazil. Also the USDBRL...
On the Daily chart of Sugar we see that price has made five blue waves to the downside, completing an impulsive structure of a higher degree. That said we think that Sugar may have found a bottom, at least temporary, because rally from the lows needs to be structured by three waves. Currently we see wave (c) in play back to the area of a former wave (iv) - 12.83....
Correction seems to be completed on the Daily graph of Cotton, because price made a sharp action to the downside resulting in three impulsive red waves. Currently price is trading in red wave (3) that could reach levels between 57.40 - 58.20. Link to our previous charts: www.ew-forecast.com
Still under pressure. We are waiting for seasonal bottom. The postman always rings twice.
It's all in place for a new potential turn... Context From extreme top to center to extreme low again. And here we are, at the L-MLH (Lower Medianline Parallel). We had a nice push through the upper ML-H. And so we can expect the same below here (dashed red sliding). In these higher timeframes we can see very good how price is reacting within a fork, which...
El niño fully active - I expect a harsh winter in Europe / La niña is coming/ and smaller harvest in subsequent years.
Reaching oversold territory based on RSI, Stoch and running into support on lower BB. Market overall sideways and lower, BUT seasonally August is a strong month Buy U15 at 118.00 --> target 130, Stop 112.00 exit at target or before First Notice Day
As wee see correction in blue wave B seems to be finished, as price moved sharply to the upside. That said new leg up in blue wave C is expected to unfold in weeks ahead. The price may move towards 72 - 73 area. www.ew-forecast.com
June brought an abundant wave of relentless storms, almost double the normal monthly rainfall, and a strong rally in grain prices. The wet conditions have spurred a long list of concerns for U.S. farmers and U.S. crop conditions substantially deteriorated in the final two weeks of June, according to the USDA. Nitrogen leaching and the lack of days available to...
Cotton is trading in a correction after a 5 wave structure to the downside. The correction may reach the fibo level of 0.382, at blue wave 4 termination point. That said price may reach higher levels to around 72 - 73. www.ew-forecast.com
Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The...
Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other...
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Wheat is neither good, nor bad. Currently, it formed a bullish flag on daily, MACD/RSI convergent with price that is going up. First, breaking into a new 15 day high, above 530 would mean breaking the small wedge and going up. Breaking the 200 day EMA at 535$ would make wheat go into an uptrend, all the way to 600. News: economictimes.indiatimes.com Hedge funds...
You can hardly get a simpler and less ambiguous recommendation than that. After a 7 year bear market I think the time may have come for wheat to rise again. You can see a small monthly RSI divergence which has formed over the past 6 months and a larger hidden divergence which has formed over the past 5 years. Commercial buying is at historic levels and the...
Very difficult situation for farmers - opportunity for speculators.
I still do not like longs on most of ags, unless you aim short term and get orthodox with your stops. Since my previous post about one month ago (see link below), SB11 is keeping its pace moving downstairs. At this point in time I see no signs of reversal, instead, my reading says we are about to “dive the five”. What comes after that remains to be seen. It is...
We may have missed the Crude trade however, Corn is a different story. We are expecting Corn to trigger today. Our targets are listed. If Corn triggers and then closes inside the wedge we will close the trade, otherwise our targets are posted. Stay tuned