Maximum potential output from the 2015 coffee crop at Brazilian cooperative Cocatrel is already 30% below production in 2013, when 1.5M bags were harvested, and outlook is "worsening every day" without rain, technical director Jorge Luis Piedade Nogueira told Reuters on Tuesday. In August, Cocatrel said drought in the first quarter of the year would have an...
Outside of being one of the most well managed companies on the market , technicals seem to indicate a short-term bump up is pending. Price action seems to indicate fairly strong support at this point. Looking four a move to around the $78 region before encountering some resistance. On the downside support seems to be strong at the $74 region. Volume seems to...
SB has just completed a double bottom with its 2010 low at .13 (on the spot price chart - go to stockcharts.com, pull up a 5yr weekly chart using symbol $sugar). Also key is the strong bounce off of support at an increasingly narrowing descending wedge. The March15 contract has lagged behind the October14 contract in this week's rally so far, but I am expecting...
ZC has been sold off stronger than most commodities, and its weekly Stochastics is at an extreme low reading. Note how it together with weekly MACD are beginning to turn up. The daily chart including today's action illustrates this bottoming action more clearly, but I've profiled this weekly chart to point out how ZC is currently beneath a long term down channel...
ZC is starting to feel choppy in this area so we are taking off our long position at a small loss. Like we mentioned, this could chop until harvest starts. We will keep her on the watch list. NEXT!
This is one of our favorite patterns. It usually suckers people into believing we will see more downside. The larger players will usually dip below the wedge and get new shorts stuck and then squeeze them. (similar to Corn recently) If they break it to the upside we should see a quick move due to weak shorts being stopped. This is high on our watch list.
Corn is still acting well. We were able to take off half our position this AM. We didn't quite hit our first target at the gap fill but captured some decent profits. IF price closes inside the descending wedge we will be out for a small loss and will look for another set up. Stay tuned!
Corn is working well. As an FYI this (ZC1!) is the continuous contract and is priced a little different than the DEC contract. However, the patterns are still the same and they are both working well. We are still long and looking for the gap fill (on continuous contract). We could see some sideways to down movement over the next few days before we start to...
And there she is! After the crop report the boys decided to give a little head fake and run the stops of the weak longs. Now if we get above the 362.2 we could see a nice squeeze would could pop us. We are long and will be holding for the gap fill. Understand we are not fools at OFT... we can read. We understand that the agency is calling for a record 14...
Price has been trading steadily within a long term bullish Uptrend Channel, since Jan 2011 up till today (24 July 2014) Price has recently trace from High of around $81.00 (26 Nov 2013) and found support along the Uptrend Channel Line. We also note a minor double bottom (31 Jan 204 - 16 May 2014) within the Channel. This indicates a reversal of the bearish...
Corn has fallen to far to quickly. We are now back to the original buy areas. If you are still holding from the buy point this will be a good lesson. It is important to take some profits on the way and trail stops. We missed this trade but for some it was very profitable. If price jumps to our sell zone we will look for a short signal.
At the beginning of the 2008 while the sub prime crisis start to be feared by all the wheat touched peaked, since then until mid 2010 the price dis-inflated severely (lost around 65% at the time from the $1320’s to a very better $480’s the contract. But as the recovery geared traction from 2010 it reduced the lost of price more than half when made at end of 2012...
Looking at JO the recent strength in looks super bullish. Eventhough im proposing the alternate idea of a double top, I still think the bullish trend is intact. However, i can't help but to think about the downside risk. I believe coffee needs to consolidate, either though price ( a sell off) or through time (sideways movement.) I don't feel comfortable going...
The beans are a bit long in the tooth. A topping pattern is playing out. We want to be short (small size) for a short term reversal.