While studying XBT Contango and Backwardation I noticed a repeatable pattern that XBT was going into backwardation every month for the last 5 months around the same time. I don't have an answer for this, but my assumption is it has to do with commercial interests and how they are driving the XBT Futures market.
The strategy does not always catch the top/bottom...
How are we all today, it is a nice fresh winters day in North Queensland Australia this morning, wonderful weather for sitting with the feet up doing some TA analysis on our favourite cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
After closing the week yesterday in great stead for the bulls, we closed the first day just a bullish. We are though sitting firmly underneath a...
With crude inventories seemingly increasing week on week since the start of 2017, crude oil price has been trading in a range of $50-55 per barrel.
From a technical perspective, the market has rejected price levels from 53s to 55s on 8 different occasions. My view is to stay short on CL while resistance at 55 still holds, key support areas will be 50s to 51s....
This chart shows how much the backwardation - when the front month trades at a premium to the second month - impacts the price of VXX which is constantly exposed to the roll-down between the two months.
Bears really need to move things down on the indexes or contango will return to rolling volatility plays.
See notes on chart.
* note: looks like TradingView, in its wisdom, is now resizing indicators from how publishers intended them to be zoomed. Will follow up with another graphic later.