AMD (AMD): Trendline test coming - crucial for bullish case!Following the completion of wave 3, NASDAQ:AMD has also completed wave 4 with a near-perfect correction at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The rapid V-shaped recovery after the drop validates our count and points to continued bullish momentum as long as key support levels hold.
AMD’s earnings report on Tuesday aligned with forecasts but projected slightly weaker revenue than expected for the upcoming quarter. This led to a 6% decline in after-hours trading, raising concerns about potential deceleration in AMD’s overall business, even as the company remains a key player in the AI chip sector alongside its competitor, Nvidia.
From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:AMD now faces a crucial test. The stock must break through the resistance zone between $162 and $174 to confirm further upside potential. Failing to do so could result in a pullback to the trendline, a level that has been respected several times since early 2023. As long as the stock remains above the $120 level, we maintain our bullish outlook. However, losing this level would confirm a bearish trend shift.
We expect continued volatility, particularly post-earnings, and will monitor for a potential move higher or consolidation around these resistance levels. We are optimistic about AMD’s prospects but await further developments at this critical juncture.
Correction
Chipotle (CMG): Awaiting strong correction in bearish waveAfter the recent 50-1 stock split, we revisited Chipotle's chart, refining our analysis for a clearer picture. With the adjusted setup, we’re more confident in our outlook for a potential bearish correction. Our initial turn-around zone was spot-on when factoring in the split, and we remain committed to our analysis.
Today, NYSE:CMG reached the targeted Wave B area at the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci level. Immediate reactions are often rare, but we believe a reversal could materialize soon. We’re eyeing the range between $43-$26, near the trendline, as a potential target zone for the next phase in this corrective wave pattern.
In the second quarter, Chipotle posted an 18.2% year-over-year revenue growth, boosted by an 11.1% rise in comparable restaurant sales and over 8% transaction growth. The earnings report tomorrow will likely attract more investor attention, but our approach focuses on technical entries at key levels rather than earnings reactions.
We have alerts set and are prepared to buy when the scenario aligns. Until then, patience and disciplined timing will guide our approach.
Ford (F): Eyeing Earnings for Potential Resistance FlipFord is set to release its earnings report in a few hours, and analysts generally anticipate that results will meet or slightly exceed consensus expectations. Currently, Ford is trading around a significant resistance level, and a breakout above this level could mark an important shift, opening the door for further gains. Our outlook remains bullish, with expectations that Ford will fill the large gap visible on the chart in the coming months.
Recent analyst targets align with our view, with ratings from Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley averaging around $13 for Ford stock. This target range corresponds well with our technical analysis, reinforcing our approach to Ford.
However, we’re holding off on any immediate action until after the earnings report to avoid an unpredictable reaction. We’ll be monitoring the market’s response closely, avoiding impulsive moves, as the true direction often becomes clearer after the initial post-earnings volatility.
Until then, patience remains crucial—trade the plan, stay disciplined, and seize the opportunity when it aligns with our setup.
Deutsche Bank (DBK): Earnings beat but loan losses double We missed the optimal entry for Deutsche Bank (DBK), but the analysis was accurate overall. The earnings report showed some resilience with a revenue increase of 5.2% year-over-year, reaching €7.50 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of €7.30 billion. The stock reacted with a modest dip, but nothing significant. However, Deutsche Bank reported a notable rise in loan losses, which doubled to €494 million in Q3 2024 compared to €245 million a year ago, aligning closely with the €482 million forecasted by analysts.
From a technical standpoint, our primary count still appears valid, though it’s a bit on the lower side. This could indicate that wave 3 might not be the longest wave in this count, which is atypical but possible as long as it’s not the shortest.
We’re targeting a potential endpoint for wave 5 within the HTF resistance zone, aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci extension level, where we could look for a long position if the setup confirms. We will continue to monitor DBK closely as this potential target level nears and adjust accordingly.
Gold's next probable direction & a safe zone for a Buy entry
I am also starting to see some downturn in Gold and Silver prices, mostly from momentum indicators which simply can't sustain the bullish momentum session after session.
But I don't think its a big correction, only 4% down from the current Gold price, this is a Fib level of support for price but this Fib level also coincides (ties-in) with recent market structure support.
Down below I will give some details of a Gold short I took today in Asia Friday and about 1 hour ago. Interestingly, the Gold price started to slightly sell off Lol, as if I am the only Gold-trader today in the Asia region.
Silver (XAGUSD): Anticipating a correction after new local highsTwo out of our three Silver positions remain active, with Silver reaching a remarkable high near $35. Today, we decided to fully close our second position, locking in substantial gains. The first position, initiated at $26.30, will remain open with a stop loss placed slightly below $26, aligning with the high-timeframe support and wave 1 level.
Given current analysis, a correction in Silver may be on the horizon after reaching the minimum target for wave 3. With increased Treasury yields and some profit-taking, Silver could face resistance in climbing further, especially considering the upward trend in yields.
While we cannot predict the exact speed of this potential downturn, if it unfolds as expected, we’ll look to re-enter with Silver certificates around the $30 to $28.30 range. The ideal correction would see a pullback toward the volume range high and a subsequent bounce within the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone, which we’ll confirm once wave ((a)) is established. Stay patient and focused, as volatility is expected to rise with the upcoming presidential elections.
GBPJPY Is Nearing Strong Resistance ZoneGBPJPY has been in a strong bullish phase, but five-wave bullish cycle within wave (5) up from 2022 swing lows can be completed after recent strong reversal down back below channel support lines. In fact, drop from the high is impulsive on a smaller time frame, so it’s wave A that stabilized near 178 support area as expected. As such, current rise is corrective, ideally B wave that can be still in progress as a bigger correction before a continuation lower for wave C. Ideal resistance is at that channel line, from the outside, around 198 – 200 area.
GBPJPY is looking for a higher resistance within wave C of (B) in the 4-hour chart, as it can be now breaking out of subwave »iv« triangle into subwave »v« of C, so keep an eye on next strong 198 – 200 resistance zone, from where bears for a higher degree wave (C) may show up.
McDonald's (MCD): New setback after quarter pounder incidentOne month ago, we predicted McDonald’s would push into the 127.2%-138% range at max, and now the stock is reacting precisely as we expected. Pre-market trading shows a 6% drop following the news from Tuesday.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported one fatality and ten hospitalizations linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder burgers, resulting in the fast-food chain pulling the item from several menus. This incident has brought McDonald's stock back into its previous range, signaling that this wave (B) should mark the local top for now.
If we are correct, we expect to see a 5-wave structure downward from here. While there could be a brief relief pump, we anticipate the stock falling below the wave (A) level of $243. We are patiently monitoring the situation, and if a favorable short setup presents itself, we will share the entry details. For now, we are watching how the news unfolds and waiting on the sidelines.
Approaching Key Levels with Potential Deep Correction Ahead!OANDA:XAUUSD
Current Price: 2737.445
2H Chart
Reason for Correction:
1H - Monthly: Overbought Zone (Deeper Correction Possible)
As indicated on the chart, the price is in an uptrend within an ascending channel on the Daily chart, and a similar trend is observed on the 2H chart, where an additional ascending channel is also forming.
Moreover, Gold is currently in the overbought zone across multiple timeframes, from 1H to the Monthly chart.
Before a potential correction, the price may rise to the overbought zone at 2753.906 or even the extreme overbought zone at 2773.699. However, it is not necessary for the price to reach these levels, as a correction could begin sooner.
A potential correction could target 2700, a significant psychological level, and extend further to 2685. It’s also possible for a deeper correction to occur, which will be addressed in a subsequent analysis.
Key Levels:
• 2753.90
• 2773.70
• 2700.00
• 2685.44
Happy trading!
Potential Correction in XAU/USD After Recent Bull RunThe price of XAU/USD has experienced a significant upward rally from $2,605 on October 10, 2024, to $2,741 as of October 21, 2024. This impressive bull run has been largely driven by market euphoria surrounding expectations of interest rate cuts. Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets like gold in anticipation of a looser monetary policy, boosting its appeal and driving prices higher.
However, despite the ongoing bullish sentiment, there are signs that a potential correction may be on the horizon. When analyzing the recent movement using the Fibonacci retracement tool, the golden ratio (61.8%) suggests a key level of potential support around $2,695. This level could act as a corrective target for profit-taking or a temporary pullback before the next leg higher. A retreat to $2,695 would align with the natural ebb and flow of price action after an extended bullish phase, providing an opportunity for the market to consolidate gains before resuming its upward trend.
In the 15-minute chart, XAU/USD is currently forming a bearish rising wedge pattern, a technical signal often associated with potential downward movement. This formation indicates that the recent bullish momentum may be losing steam, suggesting a reversal could be imminent. The narrowing price range within the wedge hints at weakening buying pressure, setting the stage for a possible breakdown.
Given the recent extended rally, traders may begin to take profits in the near term, especially as the upward momentum in XAU/USD shows signs of exhaustion. This could lead to increased selling pressure, amplifying the likelihood of a short-term correction.
If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the wedge, it would confirm the bearish signal, increasing the chances of a move towards key support levels, such as the previously mentioned $2,695 level. Traders looking to capitalize on this setup should closely monitor the price action for a clear breakdown, as it could offer strategic entry points for short positions or profit-taking opportunities for long traders.
Traders and investors should keep a close eye on this level, as a confirmed correction could present buying opportunities for those seeking to enter the market at a lower price. Conversely, if the price holds above key support levels, the bull run could continue, especially if macroeconomic factors such as additional rate cuts or geopolitical tensions further fuel gold's allure.
In conclusion, while the recent rally has been impressive, prudence suggests being prepared for a potential correction, especially with $2,695 emerging as a key technical level to watch.
EURUSD: Sell RalliesThe dollar has been in a strong recovery for the past two weeks, ever since the Fed decided to cut rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. This appears to be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation, as much of the dollar weakness earlier this year was driven by speculation that the Fed would cut rates. Now that they've finally done it, we’re seeing the opposite reaction.
Focusing on the EUR/USD pair, we can see a very clear and strong push to the downside, forming an impulsive pattern from the 1.12 level. In Elliott Wave terms, this structure indicates the trend direction, which on the intraday timeframes is currently down. I would expect more weakness ahead, although markets never move in a straight line, so an ABC pullback is possible. In such a case, 1.10 to 1.1040 could serve as a good resistance zone to sell into.
It's also important to note that the ECB may be leaning towards more rate cuts, especially with Germany’s economic struggles. This could further pressure the euro, particularly if the Fed slows down its dovish actions, given that US inflation didn’t drop to the expected 2.3%, but instead came in at 2.4%. With US yields poised to move higher while the ECB remains dovish, I believe EUR/USD will stay under pressure.
WIF Stuck in a Wedge Pattern: Patience is Key For a BreakoutWIF is forming a very long but distinct WXYXZ wedge pattern, tightly confined within its channel. The structure is clear, with repeated ABC corrective waves confirming the pattern’s integrity. While the setup is clear, it suggests we may have to trade within the boundaries of the channel for now.
For those looking to trade short-term, focus on the key levels within the wedge, but be prepared to wait patiently for the eventual breakout—it could take time, but when it happens, it should be significant.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.
We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further.
Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.
If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
Footsie Hasn’t Topped Yet; Shows Bullish PatternWe talked about Footsie back in May 2024, where we mentioned and highlighted an ongoing 5th wave in the weekly chart with space up to 8800 – 9400 target area.
Footsie a.k.a. FTSE100 or UK100 stock market index is still bullish with nice and clean inverted H&S pattern on a daily chart. After a higher degree A-B-C correction in wave (4), it can be getting ready for a bullish continuation within wave (5) by a new lower degree bullish setup formation. With sharp leg up into wave 1, we are actually tracking an a-b-c pullback in wave 2, where subwave »c« is coming out of subwave »b« triangle, so ideal support is at 8100 – 8000 area, from where we should be aware of a bullish resumption for wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle.
Microsoft (MSFT): Decision Point – Will It Hold or Drop?Since our last analysis on Microsoft, not much has changed in terms of price action, as it rose to $469 before getting stuck again at $416. However, there is one major development – Microsoft has formed a new trend channel. We have marked this crucial channel in red and labeled it "Must hold for more upside," emphasizing its importance. A major decision is approaching for $MSFT.
Either Microsoft holds this channel, leading to a surge higher, or it loses this level, which would confirm the bearish head and shoulder pattern. We've maintained a bearish outlook on Microsoft since January 2024, and recent developments seem to support our analysis. For now, we're patiently waiting and letting the market decide.
If Microsoft loses the channel, we could find initial support for wave (A) around $316-306. However, a better buying opportunity for wave II may present itself closer to $220 – though reaching this level will take some time. 🫡
BTC: Oops!tober Just Getting StartedFrom the previous chart of BTC the correlation of down trend in this bull market is a norm matter. Just watch how the market would create decision for more interest rate cut revival.
If BTC is doing its Head and Shoulders pattern. It would attract more buyers at the bottom.
The Diamond Shape in blue color is a Mini Diamond in the previous Big Diamond drafted.
Toncoin Resumes Its Bullish TrendToncoin with ticker TONUSD made a bigger decline recently after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was Arrested in France. However, they were most likely just spreading the fear like back in 2022 when FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested as well, but Crypto market found the low back then and turned bullish. So, don't get scared at this stage, as TONUSD may have just finished a deeper A-B-C correction in wave (4) from where we can expect a bullish resumption for wave (5) of 3.
It's actually nicely bouncing from projected support area for wave (4), so wave (5) can be now in progress, especially if jumps back above channel resistance line and 7.3 bullish confirmation level. If that will be the case, then wave (5) has space towards 12-14 target area.
In Elliott wave theory, every impulse should be finished by a five-wave cycle.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Bearish Scenario on the HorizonYou have to hear us out on this one, as we are presenting a very bearish scenario, but we will explain why we think it could unfold this way.
First, let's look at the weekly chart (yes, the weekly chart). This chart shows a near-perfect Elliott wave and Fibonacci count, respecting all the important theoretical points well. If this analysis is correct, we are currently in the last push of wave (5) to end this large cycle. After that, we should see lower prices for a higher wave II. We give the current wave (5) a maximum target of $271, but it is more likely to drop before we reach that level.
In the the main chart, we zoomed in to make it clearer. Everything depends on whether we are correct about wave (3) and wave (4). If our count is accurate, wave (3) should conclude between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. NYSE:JPM has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI, and if the stock drops below $190, we expect prices to fall further, ideally between $178.46 and $149, for one last push higher to conclude this cycle.
It will take some time until we get there, but good things take time, and we are ready for it to play out. Alerts are set, and the plan is in place. 😎
Salesforce (CRM): Potential bearish flag formingOne of our members asked for an analysis on Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), and we've taken a closer look at it. Initially, it's a bit challenging to see the full picture, but if our Elliott Wave count is accurate, we marked the end of wave (2) at $115.29 after establishing wave B, which was exactly between the 127.2% and 138% Fibonacci levels.
It appears that wave 1 was put in with a new high slightly above wave B, taking out the resting liquidity (likely due to profit-taking and closing of long positions). Following this, there was a 33% drop, and here's where it gets tricky. Normally, we would expect this decline to continue, suggesting that the current rise is merely a relief pump. However, wave ((a)) perfectly touched the HVN POC, which indicates a slight chance that this could be the bottom. That said, we still believe that a continuation down to the 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is more likely.
Zooming in on the blue-circled area, we notice a textbook bear flag pattern developing. While we don't typically trade based on chart patterns, it is difficult to ignore this one given its clear structure. It becomes even more significant if there is a wick above the upper trend line of the flag, which could trigger another sell-off by taking out the liquidation levels. Such a wick would also fully close the gap and enter our targeted area where we anticipate a possible reversal.
To be clear, we are not trading this bear flag pattern or the targeted area just yet. Instead, we are using this setup as a means to validate whether our bearish outlook is correct or not. We’ll continue to monitor the development closely and provide updates as we gain more clarity.
McDonald's (MCD): Time for a Correction!We predicted it back in March, and sometimes you have to give yourself a pat on the shoulder when things play out exactly as expected. A little over six months ago, we said that Wave (A) would likely hit $245.88, and what did we get? $244, which is less than a 1% difference from our target. After that, the stock surged by 24% to what now seems like another high.
Now we find ourselves back at the range high, and we must treat it with caution. Since March, we've been hoping for this exact scenario to unfold, but we're not ready to jump into a short position on NYSE:MCD just yet! The rise has been pretty strong, and we're seeing the RSI hovering around the overbought area. Given this price level, we could either see a smaller pullback before heading higher—possibly up to the 127.2%-138% Fibonacci extension—or NYSE:MCD could fall lower after losing the mid-range level.
In both scenarios, we would like to see lower prices as we still haven't concluded Wave II. We’ve zoomed in on the chart now, but whether we’re right or wrong, we’ll zoom back out to reevaluate when the time is right.
This serves as the perfect reminder that good things take time 🚀.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Gap Fill and the Future of Wave (2)We remain convinced that Alphabet is currently in Wave (2) after the well-defined end of Wave (1) at $197. Following that, we saw a sharp and fast sell-off, which looks more like a Wave A rather than the full Wave (2). This is further supported by the fact that the sell-off respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level perfectly, a typical level for Wave A.
We still have an open gap above, and we believe this should get filled, especially considering the nature of Wave A. We're expecting Wave B to reach between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Right between these two levels lies the gap, making it highly likely that this gap will get filled before we continue the downtrend.
Looking further ahead, if you're asking where we would consider buying shares, there are two potential opportunities. The first is around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the Point of Control (POC), and the second is lower in what we call the "Great Buy" zone, between $116 and $100. While this might seem like a significant drop, we saw a similar decline in 2022, so nothing is off the table.
We'll keep monitoring this closely for you.
Light Crude Oil Futures: Mid East Tensions Fuel Price Surge!Light Crude Oil Futures (CL): NYMEX:CL1!
As mentioned in our morning briefing, oil is currently extremely interesting, partly due to increasing tensions in the Middle East and the destruction of oil reserves there as well as in Russia. Consequently, oil prices have surged significantly. We are currently at a level of $85, but we still consider it quite likely that the Wave Y and the overarching Wave II have not yet concluded. We expect a three-part movement towards Y, with this Y anticipated to be in the range between 127.2% and 161.8% of a Wave C. This would place it between $63.2 and $57.4, nearly forming a double bottom with Wave ((b)) at $63.64. We would invalidate this scenario and consider a bullish outlook if we surpass the $90 mark in Crude Oil Futures. Should the price fall from here, we would then expect a five-wave structure downwards. However, caution is advised with oil due to the significant political and geopolitical influences on its price. The upcoming elections at the end of the year are particularly noteworthy, as a lower gasoline price in America is hugely important for electoral success, ensuring wins. With rising oil prices and the depletion of reserves, with hardly any reserves left in America, it will likely be necessary to purchase a large amount of oil. Considering the current economic stance of America, this task appears challenging. There is only one option if the goal is to lower oil prices for repurchasing. Even a $20 difference is substantial when buying as much oil as a country the size of America needs. Therefore, we still expect prices to fall further before we see a reversal.