We’ve become so accustomed to headlines of ‘peak inflation’ and falling input prices that some have been throwing the wonderful ‘deflation’ word around. And we think most would enjoy a bit of deflation, as that would result in lower interest rates. However, with commodity prices (particularly oil) being a key driver of inflation, a lot of the softness can be tied...
Commodities on their way down. Will the US 10-year yield come along?
Back then initial claims were also rising and the stock market was dropping. When the recession starts inflation will drop quickly.
need time to the bottom form support before bullish again
This is a historic low for silver when compared to other commodities. It seems clear that we are in a similar position in terms of ratio and 50,200 MA as October 2018. I would expect a 30% bounce in the ratio before retesting 200 MA. In the SILVER chart this corresponds to retesting trend around $24. Bouncing off 200 MA in silver is also possible, but we will...
CRB at all time lows - should be an allocation once dollar strength situation is resolved one way or the other.
This week, we will zoom out to take a monthly look at what "hard assets" are doing in the market. Post-GFC, the SP500 index ($SPY) has demonstrated incredible relative strength when plotted against the CRB commodity index. That long run from roughly 2008 has reversed course for now, and it is interesting to see the scope or range of room to run over this...
Hey traders, Commodities have seen some sharp recovery in the last few months, but we see five waves up now, so maybe it's time for some pullbacks, especially while the USD is breaking higher across the board, after FED's tapering policy.
Inflation has been driven by excessive deficits ending up as savings in the hands of the few net savers who ran out and speculated in all asset classes. Util Covid came along commodities were out of favor. When the $6 trillion in deficits (or 40% of Real GDP) in a little over a year ended up as profit savings in the hands of the few. Dollars started spilling over...
Be careful of pump and dump Bots! More data needed to find good key risk-reward areas in All asset classes.
Rarely if ever have I seen a "cute story" say the truth of what is really going on in the markets. From Buy Gold Buy Silver Crash JPM Gold is real money Hyperinflation blah blah to EU Dismantling Banksters PEAK OIL China Hard Landing China Soft landing Stagflation in 2018 Covid is a liberal Hoax and goes away To inflation is a supply chain problem, not endless...
CRB is coming into major resistance area and likely to reverse in the near future. Implications beyond the obvious commodities are Stronger dollar Lower 10 Year Yield A Solid breakout from the long term downward channel, would require a high base reversal Bull flag of sorts. Build some kind of pressure followed by a breakout. FYI I am not in the inflation camp.
H&S pattern, with target on the upper resistance. We could expect a 16% rise according to this chart.
I see uptrend
Lumber Futures: +192% 124 days, $LBS1!