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Valero Breaks the DowntrendValero Energy spent more than a year in a downtrend, but some traders may think conditions have changed. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs between April 2024 and May 2025. VLO pushed above that falling trendline last month and has remained there since. That may suggest its longer-term direction is turning higher. Second is the price area between roughly $132 and $136. The oil refiner peaked there in March, April and May. But it made a low in the same zone last week and this week. Is old resistance becoming new support? Third, prices have remained above the rising 21-day exponential moving average. They’re also above the 200-day simple moving average. Those patterns may be consistent with emerging bullishness in the short and long terms. Check out TradingView's The Leap competition sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:VLO
by TradeStation
5
EURJPY is rising to 173 for a bearish and larger pattern.EURJPY is rising to 173 for a bearish and larger pattern. Since the beginning of March 2025, EURJPY started an uptrend and is still rising in a clear way with no signs of reversal. As long as the BOJ has no plans to change its monetary policy statement or make any significant interventions in Forex, then EURJPY can continue to rise higher. There is a high possibility that Eurjpy will complete a major daily harmonic pattern near 173.00. Given that EURJPY may be close to the all-time high zone, the reversal could also occur within the zone, but I think EURJPY may start a reversal between 173.00 and the higher level. We can look for sell signals there. At the moment, EURJPY is rising and may rise to 173.00, although not in a clear way. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
by KlejdiCuni
18
Bitcoin Fractal, increase to $116k Hi Everyone☕👋 BINANCE:BTCUSDT Been such a long time since I posted. Today I'm looking at BTCUSDT, and I'm looking at the previous all time high cycle and what we were seeing (the pattern aka fractal). Here's why we're likely going a little higher. First correction of -32% Followed by first peak, ATH Correction, then the second peak and the REAL ath. Which is where we likely are: Interesting to note that the previous time, the second ath was NOT THAT MUCH HIGHER. This should be considered to manage expectations in terms of how high we can go. Anything above +6% is a bonus.
Long
by BlockTechEv
19
NATURAL GAS - Who can Predict this wild beast?Natural gas got demolished today, down over 8%. The one headline we saw hitting the tape that is having some partial influence: "Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook – LNG Recap" Today, we did hedge our core long UNG position with a short dated $56 put on EQT. We are already green on that trade and looking for $56 level to come into play. Natural gas volatility sure trades in a world of its own which is why it is key to size accordingly.
NYSE:EQT
by Trading-Capital
6
Stocks Are Crushing It at Record Highs. What’s Behind the Rally?Happy record highs, everyone — confetti, champagne, and yet another all-time high. The Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC and the S&P 500 SP:SPX just did it again — notched fresh closing records that have traders flexing their P&Ls like it’s 1999. If you’ve been on the sidelines, you’re probably staring at the chart asking: How did we add trillions to market cap while my grocery bill still looks like a high-yield bond payment? Good question. Because these days, stocks are behaving like they live on a separate planet from the actual economy (looking at you, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA ). Let’s pop the hood and see what’s revving this record-breaking machine — and what potholes might lurk ahead. 🤫 Nasdaq: The Comeback Kid of 2025 Take the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC — your favorite tech playground — up a mind-boggling 32% since the April lows . One-third of its total value was minted in three months — as much as $7 trillion added in. What happened? Well, start with the obvious: the Magnificent Seven are doing the heavy lifting again. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Meta NASDAQ:META , Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA — they’re the gym rats of this rally. But here’s the kicker: while the headlines are all “index record highs,” the Mag 7 as a whole are actually down slightly for the year. The hero’s cape belongs mostly to a few standouts: Meta, up 21% this year. Microsoft, up 17%. And Nvidia? Not bad: up a whopping 65% since the April swoon. When the generals lead, the army follows — at least until they don’t? 🤖 S&P 500: Powered by 7, Dragged by 493 The broad-based S&P 500 also clocked a new record close at 6,173.07 . Everyone loves to toast a new all-time high, but here’s your buzzkill: the “500” in S&P 500 is a bit of a myth these days. The Magnificent Seven alone account for more than 30% of the index’s total weight. Last year, this elite club rose 57% while the other 493 stocks crawled up just 13%. Strip out the hyper-scalers, and you’ll find most stocks are still limping along, wrestling with tepid growth and stubborn inflation. So yes — the S&P 500 is soaring. But the S&P 493? Not partying at the same rooftop bar. 💼 Conflicting Data: This Economy Ain’t It (Yet) Here’s where it gets spicy: GDP actually shrank last quarter — down 0.5% year over year. Inflation is still running hot with May’s PCE figure at 2.7% (the Fed’s target is 2%). Fed boss Jay Powell and the central bank squad are trying to thread the world’s tiniest policy needle: cut rates enough to juice the economy, but not so much that they stoke a fresh inflation flare-up. Meanwhile, job numbers are a mixed bag , and corporate revenue hasn’t been setting new records to match those ceiling-high stock valuations. In short, the disconnect between equity prices and economic reality is growing wider than the spread on your favorite meme coin during an illiquid Sunday afternoon. 👨🏻‍💻 Tariffs, Tweets, and the Trump Factor And who could forget the wildcard factor? Trump’s new tariffs. The “reciprocal tariffs,” as he likes to pitch them. One day he’s threatening to slap 50% duties on everything from French wine to German cars. The next, he’s cozying up for “productive” chats with Brussels. This policy whiplash makes supply chains sweat, but so far, equity traders are shrugging it off — and even cheering. Why? Because in Trump’s world, chaos means central banks might cut rates to cushion the blow. And nothing says “rocket fuel” for risk assets like lower borrowing costs. Add to that the weird paradox that tariffs — while inflationary in the short run — can also weaken the dollar if the Fed turns dovish. A weaker greenback means US tech giants look cheaper to global investors. So… up we go. 🏛️ The Great Fed Cut Watch Speaking of cuts: the Fed’s next meeting is in late July, and Wall Street is holding its breath. Rate cuts mean cheaper money — which often means traders load up on risk. The market is currently pricing in a 90% chance of a cut in September (and an 80% chance of a hold in July). Meanwhile, gold OANDA:XAUUSD — the non-yielding safe haven — is selling off while traders are flocking toward the risk-end of the boat, leaving the safe-haven corner gathering dust. 👀 What’s Next? The Inevitable Hand-Wringing So — should you pop champagne? Depends. If you’re a trend follower, record highs are record highs. Momentum is your friend. But if you’re a value purist, these multiples probably make your eye twitch. Big question: when does this all get too frothy? Will the next earnings season justify these valuations? Markets are forward-looking anyway — even if big tech’s revenue flops, that doesn’t mean money will flow out of the market cap. After all, we’re halfway through the year and that means it’s time to pop open the Earnings calendar for those spring reports. Any dip right now may very well be seen as an opportunity to swoop in at a lower price, not as something that indicates there’s something fundamentally wrong with the business. 🫶🏻 The Takeaway: Celebrate, but Stay Focused The rally is real. The headlines are dazzling. But the same lessons apply: trends don’t last forever, risk doesn’t disappear just because the chart is green, and the Magnificent Seven won’t carry the world on their backs indefinitely. So have your stop losses placed right, your position sizes sensible , and your eyes on the macro backdrop. Because record highs are fun, but holding the bag isn’t. Off to you : Are you riding this rocket or waiting for the next dip? Drop your take below — are we so back, or about to crack?
SP:SPX
by TradingView
30
One Last Push Before It’s Over?Total Market Cap  CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL CRYPTOCAP:TOTALES From a price action perspective, the structure looks very constructive: • In May 2021, a swing high was formed, which later became a key resistance level. • In November 2021, we saw a fakeout, confirming the significance of the level. • Between March and June 2024, there was a clear rejection from this resistance. • Eventually, price broke through the level and completed a clean retest from above — textbook move. The bullish structure remains intact and has been reaffirmed once again. With that in mind, a new ATH on Total Market Cap feels like just a matter of time. The 3.73T+ level is likely to be taken out soon. From a volume distribution perspective, the market is currently trading near the upper VWAP band — between +1σ and +2σ, yet shows no signs of overheating. Historically, the extreme zone is marked by +3σ, which currently sits around $4.6 trillion. Wave Structure The impulsive wave that began in 2022 appears to be nearing its completion. Given the price action and internal structure, it is highly likely that the final fifth wave is forming as an ending diagonal. The $4.6–5 trillion zone stands out as a potential market top. Volume behavior is key here: We’re seeing notable vertical volume spikes in the current phase. Horizontal volume (volume profile) reveals a strong cluster and point of control (POC) — a clear sign of distribution. This pattern often signals the final stage of a bull cycle and precedes a reversal. The question is when, not if. That said, the trend remains bullish for now. Notably, we don't yet observe strong RSI divergences on major timeframes, which supports the case for a continued push higher in the short term.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by shakatrade1_618
11
BTC - Consolidation, Manipulation & DistributionMarket Context The current price action unfolds within the broader structure of a bullish leg that began after a sharp reversal near 97,000. This impulsive rally created a clear Fair Value Gap on the 4-hour chart—left behind as price surged upward with minimal resistance. Following this move, the market entered a consolidation phase, forming a range that has now broken to the upside. This kind of breakout often attracts breakout traders, but in this case, the context signals something more calculated. Buy Side Liquidity Sweep Following Consolidation The breakout above the consolidation range led directly into a Buy Side Liquidity Sweep, as price ran the highs just above the marked range. These highs acted as a magnet for liquidity—stop losses from short sellers and buy stops from breakout traders were likely pooled in that area. The quick rejection following this sweep suggests the move was not backed by genuine demand, but rather served the purpose of liquidity collection by larger players. Manipulation and Distribution This is a textbook example of manipulation into liquidity. Price was engineered to move upward into a zone of interest, taking out the Buy Side Liquidity before sharply reversing. The strong rejection signals distribution—institutions likely offloaded positions into the influx of late buyers. This kind of pattern often precedes a larger markdown, particularly when followed by lower timeframe bearish structure breaks. Unfilled Fair Value Gap as a Draw Beneath the price lies an unfilled Fair Value Gap, a zone of imbalance left behind by the earlier impulsive move. These areas often act as magnets for price, especially once liquidity objectives to the upside have been completed. Now that the sweep has occurred and distribution is underway, there is a strong probability that price will begin to seek rebalancing within this Gap. The area between 104,000 and 103,500 stands out as a high-probability target for the next leg down. Execution Insight If you're looking to enter short, it may be wise to wait for confirmation on a lower timeframe—such as a bearish break of structure or an internal Gap forming during the retracement. A 5-minute timeframe can often give early signs of rejection or supply stepping in. Being patient and allowing the market to reveal intent is crucial, especially after liquidity-driven moves like this. Final Thoughts Price doesn’t move randomly—it seeks liquidity and fills inefficiencies. This chart beautifully illustrates that logic, from engineered consolidation to a manipulative sweep, and now potentially toward rebalancing. If you found this breakdown helpful, I’d really appreciate a like—it helps support the work and keeps this kind of content going. Let me know in the comments what you think, or if you’re seeing it differently. I'm always up for a good discussion.
Short
by Louigi_24
198
PCEs & attacks on PowellWe are carefully monitoring the PCEs today, to see, "wins" this small battle in the rate-lowering war. Let's dig in. Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
U
by Marketscom
6
Beating the S&P 500 with TradingView's Stock ScreenerThis is Mo from MWRIGHT TRADING. The date is Friday, June 27th, 2025. This video is about selecting stocks that collectively have the potential to consistently beat the S&P 500 I look for smooth and consistent long-, mid-, and short-term performance. For that we need Building a Screener What I look for - Liquidity - that means money, or trading volume. - Room to move - no overhead resistance - Favorable trends - stable moving averages - Good short term signals - a good intraday chart Filters - Market Cap 300M to 2B Not too big, and not too small - Perf 10Y > Perf 5Y No long term dips in performance - Perf 5Y > Perf 1Y No short term dips in performance - SMA(300) < Price Price above moving average - SMA(200) < Price Price above moving average - Avg Volume 10D > 100K No lightly traded stocks. Liquidity needed - + SMA(200) >= SMA(300) Stacked long-term SMAs - + SMA(50 >= SMA(200) Stacked short-term SMAs - + ROE, Trailing 12 Months > 0% (Chris Mayer) Improving ROE Examples - SENEA - DGII Review the charts - Verify short term performance - Multi-VWAP (1 hr Chart) - Free Indicator - Above a rising 5-Day AVWAP - Magic Order Blocks (5 min Chart) - Free Indicator - No major overhead resistance - Verify fundamentals and long term performance - ROE (Quarterly) - TV Indicator - Rising ROE - Float Shares Outstanding - TV Indicator - Lower float means lower supply. When high demand occurs, this can act as a price catalyst. - Multi VWAP from Gaps - Free Indicator - Stacked is good - 3 SMA Ladies - Custom Indicator - Stacked is good
NASDAQ:SENEA
by mwrightinc
9
27% Cheaper Than Buffett’s Buy – And Sitting on a Key ZoneHi, One of the most recent and notable additions to Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is Constellation Brands NYSE:STZ — and if that’s not a fundamental vote of confidence, I don’t know what is. And hey, while Midsummer Day is behind us, warm and sunny summer evenings still lie ahead. So why not make your next cold Corona or Modelo a bit more... eemmm... financially meaningful? 😄 Because let’s be honest, I’m not just sipping beer, I’m making strategic support buys to help lift the chart. 🍻 That’s right, not a simple toast but a tactical entry. Cheers to price action! ;) Okay, jokes aside, but technically, this stock is now sitting at a real make-or-break level that deserves attention. Technical View: Trendline — We’re seeing the third touch, which tends to be the strongest. I usually ignore wicks, but this time the confluence gives it weight. Monthly EMA200 — Last touched during the 2008/2009 crash. A level packed with long-term liquidity and psychological weight. Fibonacci 38% retracement Horizontal support — Marked by arrows on the chart. Price has reversed here multiple times. It’s not a coincidence and hopefully this time isn’t the exception. $150 mid-round level — US markets love round numbers, and this one sits right inside the box. Often a magnet for liquidity and reaction. -------------------------------------------------------- Now add this: You’re not just buying a chart level. You’re buying a premium cash generator: - FCF Yield ~6.8% - Operating margin ~34% - Trading ~27% cheaper than Berkshire’s initial average (their cost basis is around $220/share) - Strong brands, stable cash flows, and pricing power Yes, last earnings had a one-off impairment but the underlying business remains rock solid. If you’ve ever wanted to justify those "cold snacks" in your hand as “portfolio research”... well, here’s your excuse. Do your homework, this might be your stock today. Cheers🍻 Vaido
NYSE:STZLong
by VaidoVeek
28
Ethereum at Key Resistance After Short Squeeze BounceEthereum recently found a local bottom at $2,111, triggering a sharp bounce that resembles a short squeeze. However, the rally has met a significant resistance zone—a former support level now flipped into resistance. This zone is technically loaded with multiple confluences: the point of control, the VWAP, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,550 weak resistance area. Reclaiming this zone is essential for Ethereum to regain bullish momentum. Structurally, the daily market structure has shifted. The previous trend of consecutive higher highs and higher lows has been broken with the recent drop, signaling a bearish structural shift unless key levels are reclaimed. If Ethereum fails to break and hold above $2,550, the current move may confirm as a bearish retest, increasing the likelihood of a rotation back to $2,227 in the near term. A loss of $2,227 would open the door for a much deeper correction, targeting the $1,790 support zone—a critical level that acted as a base during previous consolidations. At this point, Ethereum sits at a pivotal juncture. The reaction at current resistance will determine whether bulls can regain control or if bears will drive the next leg lower.
Short
by The_Alchemist_Trader_
41
Nasdaq All-Time Highs, S&P Close, Blast Off or Breakdown?What an incredible melt-up since April 7 lows in the US markets. Trump vs Musk - ignored Iran vs Israel - ignored High Valuations - ignored FED Pausing - ignored The US economy is resilient and it's a good thing because the world is performing really well (EX-US). Europe/China/India/Emerging Markets are outperforming the US by 15-16% YTD The USD is having one its worst years ever in 2025 Gold, Silver, Bitcoin are great diversifiers in my opinion for 2025 Oil prices are incredibly volatile and energy stocks and commodities in turn are showing volatility and big swings As we near end of month and end of Q2, I have to believe the market is due for a small pause or pullback sooner rather than later - but we'll see Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
5
Ride UBER to $300.00 The chart of Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) showcases a multi-year bullish setup following a prolonged accumulation phase and key breakout signals: Consolidation: The stock entered a horizontal consolidation phase above previous resistance, now acting as strong support ($60–$80), confirmed by multiple bounce points (green arrows). Measured Move Projection: The current breakout from consolidation implies a 34% immediate upside target to $110.36, followed by a long-term target of $316.90, mirroring the prior major impulse. Volume Profile: Volume spikes during uptrends and stable participation during consolidation suggest institutional accumulation. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Support Zones: $80.00 (major), $60.00 (breakdown risk), Short-Term Target: $110.36 Long-Term Extension Target: $316.90 (288% move)
NYSE:UBERLong
by HernandezCapital
24
Bitcoin Analysis 23-Jun-25Bitcoin price in the weekend retested around 98,500$, this drop was mainly supported by the fear in the markets due to the escalations in the Middle East, & the US taking part in the War. In this short analysis video, we will be discussing the Areas of interest and possible price movement we could see. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
by easyMarkets
15
Coffee just gave a two-bar reversal to go long6 23 25 oil just went higher presumably from what happened with Tehran... and I heard several people say that oils going a lot higher. I really don't believe that but more importantly we can use some of the tools on the chart to decide when to take trades as a buyer and a seller. there's a clear difference between the S&P and the Russell and I would treat both of them differently. Tesla is bullish but it is coming to the sellers and they talked about that in the video. there are several other markets that I looked at as well.
COMEX:SI1!
by ScottBogatin
5
Tesla Rolls Out Much-Awaited Robotaxis. Buy or Sell the Stock?They’re here. After years of tweets, teasers, and timelines that aged like unrefrigerated dairy, Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA officially launched its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. The self-driving revolution, we were told, would arrive like a lightning bolt. Instead, it quietly rolled up to the curb with a safety monitor riding shotgun. On Sunday, ( as promised ) a small, highly curated fleet of Teslas — fully driverless, but not entirely unsupervised — began picking up paying passengers in an isolated section of Austin. CEO Elon Musk, as usual, led the cheer squad, declaring victory on X. “Super congratulations to the Tesla AI software and chip design teams on a successful robotaxi launch!! Both the AI chip and software teams were built from scratch within Tesla.” Investors, naturally, perked up. Tesla shares edged higher by more than 5% Monday morning as Wall Street tried to figure out whether this was the long-awaited catalyst for another rally… or just another “sell-the-news” moment that fizzles as quickly as the hype fades. 🔔 The Soft Launch Heard Around The Internet Let’s not get carried away. This wasn’t a citywide revolution. Tesla’s launch was extremely limited — more of a PR exercise than a true market rollout. Only a handful of Teslas were involved, operating in a tightly controlled, geofenced area. The riders? Carefully selected influencers, many of whom were more excited to film TikToks than analyze technical driving capability. In other words, this wasn’t exactly New York City rush-hour stress testing. The rides cost a flat fee of $4.20, because, of course they did. And while the cars drove themselves, safety monitors sat in the front passenger seats — a very human reminder that the project is still very much in beta mode. The bigger question for investors: Does this prove Tesla’s technology is ready for prime time? Or is it simply an appetizer served years before the main course? 📈 The Market Reaction: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Launch? Here’s where things get tricky for traders. The stock market, as always, is forward-looking. Tesla stock didn’t just wake up bullish on Monday because of a few rides in Austin — it’s been rallying for months because of the promise of robotaxis. Since Tesla’s big October 10 robotaxi event — where Musk laid out plans to launch a self-driving cab service in 2025 — shares have climbed roughly 35%. Much of that gain is already baked into expectations for Tesla finally delivering on what Musk has been promising since at least 2016. Now that the product is technically “live,” even in tiny demo form, some traders are wondering: is this the start of an even bigger rally? The answer probably depends on how fast Tesla can scale. And that’s where reality gets stickier. 🤔 The Scaling Problem: A Long Road Ahead As exciting as Sunday’s launch may have been for influencers and Tesla superfans, it’s not exactly proof of scalability. Deploying 10 carefully monitored cars in a tiny slice of Austin is one thing; blanketing entire metro areas, or states, or countries is another beast entirely. Tesla’s AI software may be improving, and its in-house chip design gives it some vertical integration advantages. But scaling fully autonomous fleets will require navigating a minefield of regulatory, safety, and logistical challenges — not to mention stiff competition. Alphabet’s Waymo is already operating robotaxi services in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, with years of public road testing under its belt. Cruise (General Motors) ran its own driverless service before recently pausing operations after high-profile safety incidents. The technology arms race is fierce — and far from settled. Industry experts continue to caution that mass-market robotaxis may take years — if not decades — to fully materialize. And while Tesla loves to move fast and break things, cities, regulators, and insurance companies tend to prefer a bit more caution when thousands of driverless vehicles are involved. 📝 What’s Actually Priced Into Tesla Stock? Here’s where this gets existential for Tesla bulls. A huge chunk of Tesla’s market valuation — some would argue most of it — now rests on the idea that it isn’t just a car company. It’s an AI company. A software company. A robotics company. A future robotaxi empire. If those narratives start to weaken, so does the multiple. Tesla remains dominant in EV production and it still benefits from profit margins (about half of the profits coming from selling regulatory credits to other carmakers). But even Musk himself has made clear that Tesla’s long-term valuation depends heavily on successfully delivering robotaxis and humanoid robots. If Sunday’s soft launch is the start of something truly scalable, then maybe the valuation holds up. If it stalls — either due to regulatory hurdles, technological ceilings, or public skepticism — the market may need to reevaluate just how much of Tesla’s price reflects reality versus dreams. 👀 Bottom Line: Revolutionary or Just Another Test Ride? So, should you buy or sell Tesla after its long-awaited robotaxi debut? That depends on how you frame this moment. The bulls see a trillion-dollar industry being born, with Tesla perfectly positioned. The bears see a carefully staged PR event masking how far away true autonomy still is. For now, Tesla gets credit for being bold — even if it’s bold enough to roll out a very small, very managed test. But markets eventually ask: “What’s next?” And unless Tesla can quickly scale from 10 cars in Austin to fully functioning fleets in major cities, a victory lap here could feel a little premature. As always with Tesla: the story is thrilling, the stock is volatile, and the future is still very much under construction. And with its earnings just around the corner — you’re following the earnings calendar , right? — things might just be getting exciting. Off to you : Which side are on? The bullish traders looking to add to their long positions or the bearish sellers who’ve been calling “overvalued” for years? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradingView
18
Will Nike’s Upcoming Earnings ‘Just Do It’ for Investors?This hasn’t been the greatest year for Nike NYSE:NKE , which will report earnings next Thursday at a time when the stock is down more than 20% year to date. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen to the stock from here? Let’s take a look: Nike’s Fundamental Analysis NKE ended Wednesday down 21.4% year to date, and last year wasn't so hot for the athletic-gear giant, either. Shares fell 30.3% over 2024 as a whole. In fact, it’s been a tough decade so far for Nike, a one-time Wall Street darling. All in, the stock has fallen some 66.8% since peaking at $179.10 in November 2021. Gross. Things got so bad that former CEO John Donahoe "retired" in October 2024 -- a retirement that the firm’s board graciously “agreed” to. The board then pulled in Nike veteran Elliott Hill, who had retired in 2020 after 32 years with the firm, off of the bench to serve as the company’s new CEO. While it's still early, Hill hasn’t worked much magic so far for the stock, either. Nike shares have struggled since March, when the firm beat analyst expectations for its fiscal Q3 earnings and revenues but provided poorly received forward guidance. As for next week’s fiscal Q4 results, the Street is looking for NKE to report just $0.11 of GAAP earning per share on roughly $10.7 billion of revenue. That would compare badly to the $0.99 of EPS on $12.6 billion of revenues that Nike saw in the same period last year -- an 88.9% decline in earnings per share and about a 15% drop in sales. In fact, of the 23 sell-side analysts that I’ve found that track the stock, 21 have revised their fiscal Q4 earnings estimates lower since the quarter began. Only two have moved their forecasts to the upside. Nike’s Technical Analysis Now let's take a look at NKE’s chart going back some four months: Readers will see that from early April through mid-June, Nike developed a so-called “rising-wedge” pattern of bearish reversal, marked with purple shading and a red box in the chart above. Late last week, shares broke through the wedge’s lower trend line at about $62, which is the pivot point here. Nike also recently gave up its 21-day Exponential Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above). That’s likely turned some swing traders against the stock for now. The stock will now have to look to its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” denoted above with a blue line) for support. That’s at $59.50 in the chart above, but NKE was trading at $59.51 on Friday afternoon as I wrote this. Should that line crack as well, a certain percentage of portfolio managers would likely have their risk managers force them to reduce long-side exposure to the stock. But interestingly, readers will also note that from Nike’s late-February high to its early April low, shares hit resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of that move twice -- first in mid-May and then again a month later. This typically implies that there are probably institutional sellers at that level. Looking at NKE’s other technical indicators, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is on the weak side of neutral here. It’s not awful, but it also isn’t positive. Worse, Nike’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with blue bars and black and gold lines at the chart’s bottom) is postured quite bearishly. Within that indicator, the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) stands below zero, while the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). Those are all typically negative technical signals for a stock. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in NKE at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. 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NYSE:NKE
by moomoo
6
Is Alt season dead? - June 2025Let me start by saying, Youtube influencers are lying to you. The collective narrative (from those links shared with me) talk almost exclusively about the same set of narratives for triggering “alt season”: M2 money supply. The printer will be turned on any minute. The FED is going to cut rates, the market will then explode. Institutions are buying the dip! “Blackrock fills Ethereum long positions” etc A dollar collapse. The real season begins in 2026, stack now! It is the same rubbish time and time again. Rarely will one of those influencers << Look left << to tell you the News as it is written on the chart. Let me tell you the News… The highly anticipated "alt season," where alternative cryptocurrencies (alt coins) significantly outperform Bitcoin, faces considerable challenges to deliver the much awaited “alt season” where everything blows up. However I’ve long argued those days are behind us, we’re not going to see an “alt season” again, at least not in the sense many understand the term "alt season". Alt season refers mainly to those tokens that reside outside the top ten crypto tokens. The total market cap of this cohort outside the top 10 is referred to as INDEX:OTHERS total, as is shown in the main chart. Now I’ve long argued corrections for Ethereum to $700 and below, Litecoin to $20 and lower, generally legacy tokens should perform the worst during this bull market, that outlook does not change. Why so pessimistic? Headline 1 - Support and resistance It is that simple. look left. Each alt season closed a monthly candle above the monthly 7 SMA and monthly 10 SMA (Green areas) before getting underway. Not only has this not happened during this bull market, support from the rising channel has failed and if the current monthly candle closes as it (in 7 days), then past support shall confirm as resistance. This would mean a collapse back to the 2017 market top of circa $50 billion. Headline 2 - Bitcoin halving The truth is “alt season” began in May 2024, that is if you’re a believer in the halving cycles. If you’re a believer then you must accept this bull market comes to an end in 90 days. The orange vertical lines represent each Bitcoin halving, occurring in August 2016, June 2020, and lately May 2024. The so called “alt season” would follow the halving for a 518 day period. There is only 90 days left for alt tokens to do their stuff before this cycle comes to an end. However, influencers only seem to talk about how great 2026 is going to be and how now is the time to start stacking. Instead 2025 is really going to create a whole new number of bag holders of dead projects. Headline 3 - The number of circulating tokens In January 2017 there was 8885 tokens, the good ole days. June 2020, still only 19,500 tokens Fast forward to June 2025 and we have 17.45 million tokens. Utterly ridiculous. The sheer proliferation of alt coins, now numbering in the millions, creates an overwhelming supply that far outstrips demand. This fragmentation of liquidity means that even when some tokens see brief pumps, it's often selective with only a handful of projects having strong narratives or specific utility that truly thrive. The simple truth is the market must kill off millions of those dud projects to free liquidity to the few that matter. If you really must know where the money is going to come from that causes growth in the remaining winners, it is from the realisation that a number of those projects are dead. That includes projects such as Ethereum and Litecoin. Both those charts share an important distinction no one wants to talk or hear about. There are projects out there that’ll buck the trend, do you know which ones they are? Not everything will collapse to zero. Ww
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by without_worries
115