US Missiles Flyin'! Buy USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 22-28th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
The USD is the world's reserve currency. When there are geo-political hot spots in the world, the USD sees inflows from investors. In light of US strikes against Iranians nuke sites last night, buying the USD versus other currencies is prudent and wise.
The USD should see more gains as long as the current tensions are high. If Iran comes back to the negotiations table, then the environment switches back to a risk on scenario, where the outflows from the USD go back into riskier assets like the stock market.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis & Trend Continuation TradingThe EURJPY has recently violated an important level of structure leading us to make the prediction of price continuing to go higher.
In this video we'll take a look at where the next stopping point may be and what I'm waiting for the market to do in order to get involved in the trade.
If you have any questions, comments or just want to share your views/analysis, please do so below.
Akil
$ETH: The 1-week chart is an absolute disaster!Once again, I want to make it clear: I’m naturally a bull. But I live in Thailand, far from the noise of influencers shouting "buy, buy, buy!" I’ve learned my lesson—when they scream buy, you get rekt. That’s why I rely solely on the charts.
Charts are just mathematics—they don’t lie. So here’s my honest interpretation of what I’m seeing for Ethereum:
🕐 Daily Outlook
Yes, we might see a few nice bounces in the short term. But if your plan is to hold ETH, you should be paying attention to higher timeframes, especially the weekly.
📉 Weekly Chart — It's Ugly
We’re clearly in a descending wedge, and overall, ETH is bearish. Don’t be fooled by the hype or the people trying to take your money.
- RSI is bearish, with a strong bearish divergence still unfolding.
- MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, and what’s worse, it’s doing that without even touching the neutral zone—a major red flag.
The last time we saw this setup? November 2021. The price crashed below $1,000.
🔍 Where’s the Support?
This cycle, the support zone looks closer to $1,500, mainly due to institutional interest and the ETF narrative. A full retracement seems unlikely, but technically speaking—it’s still a possibility.
🤔 Why Is This Happening Despite Institutional FOMO?
Here’s the key: ETH has staking, and every month, new CRYPTOCAP:ETH is minted to pay stakers. This creates constant inflation. On top of that, many stakers compound their rewards, accelerating the inflation. And guess what? These same stakers are selling as soon as ETH pumps.
So fundamentally, Ethereum is under pressure because of its own staking mechanics—a system flaw that creates long-term selling pressure.
Do your own research (DYOR). I could be wrong—but at least I’m not trying to sell you a course.
Tesla May Be StallingTesla bounced between early April and late May, but now it may be stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the weekly low of $331.39 from May 22. TSLA fell below that level two weeks ago and was rejected at the same price area last week. Has old support become new resistance?
Second, the stock has fallen under its 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 8-day EMA is also at risk of slipping below the 21-day EMA. Such patterns may reflect short-term bearishness. Falling MACD paints a similar picture.
Third, the EV stock peaked at $488.54 in December -- above its previous high of $414.50 from November 2021. But it failed to hold, which could be viewed as a false breakout.
Those signals could focus traders’ attention on the April low of $214.15, which is still more than $100 below TSLA’s close on Tuesday.
Finally, TSLA is an active options underlier. (Its average daily volume of 2.6 million contracts last month ranked third in the entire market, according to TradeStation data.) That could make it easier for traders to take positions with calls and puts.
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German 40 Index – Sentiment Facing a Sterm TestSince hitting its most recent all time high of 24469 on June 5th the Germany 40 index has experienced some downside pressure as traders have moved to lock in profits on a very strong start to the year. This move has the potential to turn June into the worst monthly performance of 2025 so far, although there is still another 8 trading days to go.
This short-term shift in sentiment has been related to a combination of factors. The new all time high of 24469 hit on June 5th coincided with the latest ECB interest rate cut. However, at that meeting Madame Lagarde indicated in the press conference that more data on the path of inflation, trade tariffs with the US and Eurozone growth would be required before the ECB would consider cutting interest rates again.
This was followed by comments and headlines which suggested that progress on a trade deal between the US and EU was slow and would potentially continue past the original July 9th pause deadline set by President Trump.
Then in the last week sentiment has been rocked further by the spike in Oil prices driven by an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran that has seen them trade missile attacks for 7 straight days, alongside a growing concern that the US may also be seriously considering entering a direct conflict with Iran after Bloomberg reported yesterday that senior US officials are preparing for a possible strike in the coming days.
At the time of writing (0700 BST) this leaves the Germany 40 trading at 1 month lows around 23142 and suggests a consideration of the technical outlook, including potential support and resistance levels could be useful.
Technical Update: Watching 23235 Last Correction Low
Having posted a new all-time high on June 5th at 24469, a more extended price correction has developed in the Germany 40 index. Interestingly, as the chart below shows, this phase of weakness has seen closing breaks under what some might have anticipated would be support, marked by the Bollinger mid-average (currently 23862).
In previous reports, we have suggested that traders may use the Bollinger mid-average as an indicator of the possible direction of the current price trend. If the mid-average is rising with prices above it, the trend may be classed as an uptrend, while if the mid-average is falling with price activity below it, a downtrend might be in place.
As the chart shows, following the latest breaks below the mid-average, this has now turned lower, and traders might now be focusing on the possibilities for an extended phase of price weakness.
Let's consider the possible support or resistance levels that could be worthwhile for traders to focus on.
Potential Support Levels:
With Thursday’s initial price activity so far seeing further selling pressure, as the chart below shows, it might be suggested the next relevant support is already currently being tested with moves below 23235. This level is equal to the last correction low posted on May 23rd at 23235.
Traders might now be watching how this 23235 low support is defended on a closing basis over coming sessions, as confirmed breaks lower, while no guarantee of deeper price declines, might skew risks towards tests of the next potential support at 22303, which is equal to the 38.2% retracement of April 7th to June 5th strength.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Since the June 5th all-time high, an extended decline in price has already been seen, so a reactive recovery might be a possibility. However, having recently seen the mid-average turn lower, closing breaks back above its current 23862 level might now be required to trigger a phase of price recovery.
While much will depend on future price trends and market sentiment, if successful upside breaks above the 23862 mid-average are seen, it might lead to tests of 24469 which is the June 5th all-time high.
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Coinbase Shares Rise Following Stablecoin Legislation ApprovalCoinbase (COIN) Shares Rise Following Stablecoin Legislation Approval
Shares in Coinbase Global (COIN) surged by 11% yesterday, making the company the top performer in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
The sharp rise was driven by news that the US Senate has approved the GENIUS stablecoin bill, which sets out a regulatory framework for the use of stablecoins — crypto assets whose value is pegged to another currency or financial instrument, such as the US dollar.
The bill (which still requires approval from the House of Representatives) would pave the way for banks, fintech companies, and other financial market participants to use stablecoins. This development acted as a strong bullish catalyst for COIN shares.
Technical Analysis of Coinbase (COIN) Share Price Chart
In our previous analysis of the COIN share price chart, we:
→ identified an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ suggested that the COIN share price could rise towards the psychological level of $300.
That projection has played out — the price is now very close to the $300 mark. So, what comes next?
In a bold, optimistic scenario, buyers may hope for a continuation of the rally, with the share price pushing towards the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel, especially following the recent news. In the medium term, the blue ascending channel may remain relevant, given the strong signal of improved cryptocurrency regulation in the US legislative framework.
However, we also note some vulnerability to a pullback, as:
→ the $300 level may act as significant resistance;
→ the price is approaching the upper boundary of the blue channel, which also shows resistance characteristics;
→ once the initial wave of positive sentiment fades, some investors may look to take profits, especially given the more than 20% rise in Coinbase (COIN) shares since the beginning of the month.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CRYPTO - Big Smackdown Then AltSeason ?The Crypto Cycle Gurus are telling us that AltSeason is just around the corner since the expected 4 year cycle completion is just a few months away...
But are they correct or is there a twist in the tale ?
Here's a 10 minute video to show a potential twist.
There might just be a DEEP dip buy opportunity coming down the road...
Not advice
TradingView Show: New Trade Ideas and The Leap TradeStationJoin us for a timely TradingView live stream with David Russell, Head of Global Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we break down the latest rebound in the markets and what it could mean for traders and investors. In this session, we’ll dive into:
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- A closer look at Latin American equities, with names like Mercado Libre in focus
- The surprising strength in stocks that have doubled since the tariff-driven selloff
- How energy and oil markets are reacting to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
- And other trends that are shaping the broader investment landscape
Whether you're trading short-term setups or planning longer-term plays, this session will give you fresh insights and practical takeaways to help you stay prepared and informed through the summer months.
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Major resistance ahead?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6512
1st Support: 0.6466
1st Resistance: 0.6545
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Bitcoin - Trend Shift Confirmed, Eyes on $102.8K LiquidityMarket Context
Bitcoin showed signs of exhaustion after a strong short-term rally within a clean upward channel on the 1H chart. Price action had been respecting the trend structure until a key deviation occurred near $108,500, where we saw an internal liquidity sweep that hinted at potential distribution.
Fake-Out Confirmation and Shift in Momentum
After taking out local highs around $108.5K, price failed to continue higher and instead reversed sharply, confirming the sweep as a classic fake-out. This kind of internal liquidity grab is typically used to trap breakout buyers before reversing and targeting previous lows.
Break of Structure and Channel Retest
The rising channel was broken convincingly, and price has now retested the underside of the channel, aligning with the 50% equilibrium of the entire high-to-low range. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests the market has likely shifted from accumulation to distribution.
Downside Targets and Key Levels
Immediate support sits around $104.6K, which served as a consolidation base during the earlier run-up. If this level fails to hold, the next key target would be a sweep of the previous significant low at $102.8K. This area is marked as a point of interest and could offer a reaction or reversal.
Price Expectations and Trade Outlook
As long as price remains below the broken channel and under $107K, the bearish scenario remains in play. I’m watching for bearish continuation into $104.6K first, and a potential full sweep toward $102.8K if that support fails.
Conclusion
The internal sweep followed by impulsive rejection, combined with a clear channel breakdown and retest, shifts the bias to bearish. A move into the $104.6K region seems probable, with a lower liquidity target at $102.8K in sight if downside pressure accelerates.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBP/USD - H1-Triangle Breakout (17.06.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3485
2nd Support – 1.3444
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Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule
Key Themes to Monitor This Week
Geopolitical Risks
Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions.
There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market.
Trade War and Trade Deals
There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements.
FED Week
This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled.
Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance?
Expectations for the Week Ahead
NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher.
Key Levels to Watch
• yVAH: 22,690.50
• R2: 22,510
• R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50
• May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25
• yVPOC: 21,660
Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious
Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range.
Example Trade Idea 1
• Entry: 22,000
• Stop: 21,930
• Target: 22,322
• Risk: 70 pts
• Reward: 322 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation
If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week.
Example Trade Idea 2
• Entry: 21,672
• Stop: 21,600
• Target: 22,000
• Risk: 72 pts
• Reward: 328 pts
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R
________________________________________
Glossary
• VPOC: Volume Point of Control
• VA: Value Area
• VAL: Value Area Low
• VAH: Value Area High
• VP: Volume Profile
• AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
• Y: Yearly
• pWk: Previous Week
Meta & Microsoft: How Two Tech Titans Outran a Sinking Mag 7Forget about the Magnificent Seven and say hello to M&M — the only two winners of the year so far.
If you blinked during the first half of 2025, you might’ve missed it: the mighty Magnificent Seven are starting to look more like a Scraggly Five. While Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA fumbled its autonomy narrative and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL spent more time designing slides for the WWDC than in keynotes, two names quietly did the thing — created shareholder value.
Meta NASDAQ:META and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT
Both are up more than 13% year-to-date each, sitting comfortably at the top of the gains leaderboard. For comparison: Nvidia managed just 3% (and that’s with all the AI hype), and everyone else? Down. Flat. Or just ghosted by Wall Street. The iPhone maker? How’s 20% to the downside?
Let’s break down how Meta and Microsoft dodged the selloff.
📞 Meta: Not About That Meta
Meta NASDAQ:META came into 2025 like it had something to prove. Zuck had long gone full avatar with the metaverse. But now? Now he wants to win AI — and he’s putting his money where his data is. Meta’s latest foray into AI is a $14.3 billion investment into Scale AI.
A 49% non-voting stake in the AI darling isn’t for fun — but for function. It’s a full-court press to close the Llama-size gap between Meta’s in-house models and the heavyweights like OpenAI and Anthropic.
Scale AI, already one of Meta’s biggest vendors, processes and labels the data that fuels Meta’s large language models. It was only a matter of time before Zuck decided, “Hey, let’s just own a piece of the pipeline.”
And in true tech soap opera fashion, Scale CEO Alexandr Wang last week confirmed in an internal memo he’s leaving to join Meta full-time. For those keeping score: Wang, born in 1997, became the youngest billionaire in 2021. Now, he’s headed into the belly of the Menlo Park beast.
Wall Street seems to dig that. The stock shot up when the news leaked , as investors rewarded Meta for looking less like a social media giant and more like a serious AI player — even if it still serves your aunt’s minion memes.
👾 Microsoft: The OS of Enterprise Still Runs Smooth
Meanwhile in Redmond, Satya Nadella was out here quietly running the table.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT hit an all-time high of $480 on June 12, pushing its market cap to a record-breaking $3.5 trillion. For about a day or two before that, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA was on top — and then Microsoft did what Microsoft always does: calmly pressed Ctrl+Alt+Delete on its competition and reclaimed its spot as Earth’s most valuable company .
How did that happen? Certainly not overnight.
Azure continues to gobble cloud market share, Microsoft 365 is still the gold standard for digital productivity, and Teams — love it or hate it — is now basically corporate law.
But don’t sleep on its AI game. Microsoft isn’t just throwing money at OpenAI, it’s embedding AI into everything it touches. Outlook, Excel, Word — all getting their Copilot upgrades. Want to finish that quarterly report faster? Let AI do it. Want it rewritten in pirate-speak? AI’s got you.
Microsoft isn’t just building tools. It’s establishing an infrastructure for the new AI economy. And traders see that. They understand that while Nvidia sells the shovels, Microsoft owns the mine.
👩🏻💻 Why the Rest of the Mag 7 Didn’t Make the Cut
Quick vibe check:
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL Still chasing the AI breakthrough. No one talks about the Vision Pro headset anymore, and the annual WWDC event wasn’t anything special. The stock is down 20% on the year.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA Robotaxis are coming ( maybe even this week ). But earnings pressure and margin squeeze made investors wish for more than tweets and timelines. The shares are underwater by 14% YTD.
Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN E-commerce growth hit cruise control, and its AI presence still feels more like an R&D lab than a monetized machine. The stock is staring at a 3.7% loss, largely thanks to Amazon getting slapped in the face from Trump’s tariffs .
Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL Search is still dominant, but Gemini’s bumpy launch and questionable performance has traders waiting for Google to actually ship something great, and not just strip the results from the iconic blue links . The stock is down 8%.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA Yes, still the king of chips. And yes, it’s still delivering. But with valuation stretched like Lululemons in a CrossFit class and export bans weighing heavy , it’s getting harder to maintain the pace.
🍻 Trading Lesson: Leadership Rotates
If you’re a trader who’s been glued to Nvidia’s every tick or still buying dips on Apple because it “has to come back,” let this be your mid-year reminder: the market doesn’t care what used to lead.
Leadership rotates. Fundamentals shift. And sometimes, the best trade is the one hiding behind less hype and more function.
Case in point: While Apple’s been trying to find a catalyst, Meta just found a whole new business partner. While Nvidia’s been spinning plates on export rules, Microsoft’s just printing money off the back of Office subscriptions and Azure servers.
👀 What Happens Next?
With the second half of the year approaching, all eyes are on:
Meta’s AI ambitions — can the Scale deal accelerate model performance fast enough to close the gap with rivals?
Microsoft’s cloud dominance — can Azure continue its double-digit growth without hitting the regulatory radar?
Earnings, earnings, earnings — it’s almost the season again! Earnings reports kick off in about a month and things will get cracking.
Whatever happens, don’t bet the farm on what used to work. Watch the rotation. Track the strategy shifts. And for the love of charts — keep one eye on the Earnings Calendar .
💬 Final Thought
If Meta and Microsoft can shine while their peers flounder, what does that say about the real winners in this new AI economy? Maybe it’s not about who builds the flashiest model — but who actually knows how to monetize it. What’s your thought?
Why Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Could Be the NVDA of BiotechRecursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX is rapidly emerging as a transformative force in drug discovery, leveraging cutting-edge artificial intelligence and automation to industrialize and accelerate the development of new medicines. Here’s why RXRX could be the next NVIDIA (NVDA) of biotechnology and why its stock could soar by year-end:
1. AI-Powered Drug Discovery Platform with Unmatched Scale
Recursion integrates AI, machine learning, automation, and advanced data science to decode biology and chemistry, dramatically reducing the time and cost of drug discovery.
The company’s proprietary BioHive-2 supercomputer, built with NVIDIA’s DGX H100 systems, is the most powerful AI computing system wholly owned by any biopharma company, enabling Recursion to process biological data at unprecedented speeds.
By reducing the number of compounds needed for clinical candidates from thousands to just 136–200 and shrinking development timelines to under a year, RXRX is fundamentally changing the economics of pharmaceutical R&D.
2. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Validation
RXRX has forged high-profile partnerships with pharmaceutical giants such as Bayer, Roche/Genentech, Takeda, and Sanofi, validating its platform and unlocking milestone payments that could exceed $20 billion over time.
The company’s collaboration with AI biotech Exscientia in a $700 million deal further cements its leadership in the AI-driven drug discovery space, creating a pipeline of 10 clinical and preclinical programs with hundreds of millions in potential milestones.
NVIDIA itself holds over 7.7 million shares of RXRX, making it one of NVIDIA’s largest biotech investments and a strong endorsement of Recursion’s technology and long-term vision.
3. Explosive Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Position
Analysts forecast Recursion’s revenue to grow at a 65% CAGR from $58.8 million in 2024 to $263 million by 2027, far outpacing the broader biotech sector.
The company ended 2024 with over $600 million in cash, providing a solid runway for continued investment in R&D, platform expansion, and clinical trials.
Wall Street analysts expect more than 50% upside in RXRX stock over the next 12–24 months, with multiple clinical milestones and partnership announcements as near-term catalysts.
4. Disruptive Vision: The “Virtual Cell” and Beyond
RXRX is building toward a “virtual cell,” where AI models can simulate biological processes with such accuracy that wet lab experiments shift from data generation to validating computational predictions.
This approach could dramatically improve drug development success rates, addressing the industry’s notorious 95% failure rate and positioning Recursion as the go-to platform for next-generation drug discovery.
5. Market Sentiment and Institutional Support
RXRX has caught the attention of growth investors and major funds, including Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, further boosting its profile and liquidity.
Recent stock surges and high trading volumes reflect growing investor confidence in Recursion’s disruptive potential and the broader AI-in-biotech trend.
MGY: Technical Breakout + Fundamental Momentum = Quiet Winner?Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) is showing one of the cleanest technical breakouts in the energy sector — and the market hasn’t priced it in yet. After months of pressure, price has broken above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with rising volume, signaling a clear phase shift from distribution to accumulation. Recent candles confirm control shifting to the buyers, with a tight structure, rising lows, and bullish momentum building underneath resistance.
The fundamentals back the technical setup. In the latest earnings report, MGY delivered a 9.7% revenue increase, $110M in free cash flow, and continues to pay dividends with low leverage. UBS upgraded the stock with a $29 target, which aligns precisely with the post-breakout projection. Operationally, the company is expanding in key U.S. basins like Eagle Ford, while seeing growing demand from Australia and Latin America.
With oil prices pushing higher and geopolitical tensions rising, MGY stands out as a stable energy play in a volatile world. Holding above the $24.00–$24.30 zone keeps the breakout valid, with $29+ as a natural magnet for price. Most investors are still asleep on this name — but the structure is already telling a very different story.
EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on.
The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16
Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene.
For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value.
The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness.
So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time.
Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off
Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy.
Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news .
Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar.
The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party.
On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America.
US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut?
US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve.
So what does the market do? It prices in a cut.
Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny.
ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises?
Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency.
Here’s why it’s rising instead:
Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon.
The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms.
Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life.
Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out.
Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan
From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction.
From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.”
Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!
ETHEREUM: THE NEW BOND OF THE DIGITAL WORLDPrice isn’t the goal. Price is the side effect.
Meanwhile, BlackRock - a black hole with a trust-backed logo - just absorbed 42,000 ETH more.
Yesterday, you may have read this "regular" headline:
BlackRock increases its Ethereum exposure to $4 billion, adding $109.5 million via ETFs.
But here’s what you missed: there are no random numbers on the market.
When a player like this moves - it’s not hype. It’s a blueprint for the future.
Ethereum is no longer an altcoin.
It’s no longer speculation. It’s a financial infrastructure, already recognized by law, exchanges, and institutions.
What does this mean?
💡 Ethereum is now a digital bond - with yield flowing from blocks.
Profit is no longer built on promises, but on the structure of the chain itself.
Trust lies not in faces, but in code.
Growth is not artificial — it’s architectural.
And here’s why this is terrifyingly beautiful:
While you sleep, they are building an era.
Each ETF purchase removes ETH from circulation - permanently. Because:
✅ This ETH is gone from the open market
✅ It won’t be panic-sold
✅ It becomes income-bearing collateral, not a speculative asset
Still waiting for an entry signal?
The big players are already in.
This is no longer crypto - this is cash flow infrastructure, embedded into the digital economy.
And when pension funds, insurers, and sovereign investors move into Ethereum - they will come via ETFs.
Not because it’s trendy, but because it’s regulated, stable, and profitable.
📉 When institutional demand meets vanishing supply - the price won’t simply rise. It will explode, not as growth, but as a structural liquidity shift.
Ethereum is:
💸 Staking = passive yield
🔗 Backbone of DeFi
🖼 Fuel for NFTs
⚙️ Millions of transactions per second
⚖️ A regulated ETF asset
This is the new digital bond system, where the bet isn’t on the dollar - it’s on ETH as an income-producing asset.
💥 While you're reading this, the game is already on.
ETFs are rewriting the rules of time-ownership.
No hype. Just filings. Just intention.
Best regards EXCAVO
Silver surge has more bullish upsideSilver is breaking out. Its strength is no accident. The US is running a structural deficit north of 6% of GDP in a full-employment economy. The bond market has absorbed the pain so far, but pressure is building. Investors are starting to look for insurance. Silver is one of the cleanest ways to play the dollar’s long-term debasement.
The metal is trading well above its 200-day moving average. The US$31.50-32.00 zone now acts as solid support. Any pullback into that range is likely to be short-lived.
Silver doesn’t move in straight lines. It runs, consolidates, then runs again, usually in 50–90 day cycles. The current setup fits that rhythm.
The gold-to-silver ratio is still near 100x. Historically, the average is closer to 60-70x. That gives silver more room to catch up. Traders can short gold and go long silver to play that mean reversion. Or simply buy silver outright and short the dollar. ETF inflows into silver have picked up, showing broader market interest.
The main risk? A sudden shift in Fed tone or falling inflation expectations. But that seems unlikely near term.
Silver isn’t just a trade. It’s a message. A hedge against fiscal irresponsibility and the cost of kicking the can too far.
Soaring platinum breaks a 3 year high at $1,152.50/ozChina, the world’s largest consumer of platinum, imported its highest amount in a year last month. Retail investment demand (bars and coins) in China more than doubled, overtaking North America as the top market for platinum investment.
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence predict that global platinum demand will exceed supply for the rest of the decade.
Key technical levels:
• Platinum futures hit a 3+ year high at $1,152.50/oz.
• Next resistance levels:
o $1,197.00 (March 2022 high)
o $1,281.40 (May 2021 high)
o $1,348.20 (February 2021 high)
• All-time high: $2,308.80 (March 2008)
The strong Chinese demand and lagging EV transition may fuel a sustained bull run in platinum prices. Investment opportunities may exist if technical resistance levels are broken, potentially retesting highs from 2021 and 2022 even aiming toward the 2008 peak. Supply constraints and investment interest make platinum a strategic metal to watch in both industrial and financial markets.
Elon Musk vs Trump: Who you betting on?Elon Musk and Donald Trump have recently had a public falling-out, with their feud playing out on social media and in political circles.
The dispute seems to have started over Trump's new budget bill, which Musk has criticized for increasing the national debt. Trump, in turn, accused Musk of being upset because the bill removes electric vehicle subsidies that benefit Tesla.
The tension escalated when Trump suggested that Musk had known about the bill beforehand and had no issue with it until after leaving his government role. Musk denied this, claiming he was never shown the bill and that it was passed too quickly for proper review. Trump then took things further by threatening to cut Musk’s government contracts and subsidies, which amount to billions of dollars. Musk responded defiantly on social media, calling Trump "ungrateful" and claiming that without his financial support, Trump would have lost the election.
TSLA violated key levels and will be looking for a sharp technical bounce off the $260-$257 zone
OptionsMastery: Inverse head and shoulders on UAL! 🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
The MSCI World index sets a new all-time record!The MSCI World stock market index set a new all-time record during the trading session of Monday June 2, wiping out the entire stock market shock of February/March, which saw the global equity market lose 20%. This technical signal still needs to be confirmed at the end of the week at the next weekly technical close. If this bullish technical break were to be confirmed, then this would be a very positive signal for the global equity market, which is still hoping that trade diplomacy will lead to solid trade agreements between the USA and its main trading partners (China and the EU).
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the MSCI World index.
1) Composition and calculation of the MSCI World index
The MSCI World Index (Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index) is a benchmark stock market index that measures the performance of large- and mid-cap equities in developed countries. Here are the main elements of its composition:
The MSCI World Index is a benchmark global stock market index that measures the performance of large- and mid-cap equities in 23 developed countries. Created by Morgan Stanley Capital International, it offers a global view of the equity markets in the most advanced economies. Among the countries included are the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and Australia. The index comprises some 1,600 companies, with a strong dominance of the USA, which accounts for almost 70% of its total weighting. The most represented sectors are information technology, healthcare, financial services and consumer discretionary.
The MSCI World is calculated using a weighting method based on free-float market capitalization, i.e. taking into account only those stocks actually available for purchase on the markets. This means that companies with a higher market value and a larger free float have a greater influence on the index's performance. The MSCI World is updated regularly to reflect market developments and the entry or exit of companies.
Although it offers broad geographic diversification, it does not include emerging countries; these are covered by the MSCI ACWI index, which is also close to setting a new all-time record and is 13% composed of emerging countries (China, India, etc.).
2) Trade diplomacy and the FED's monetary policy outlook are key to keeping the global equity market bullish in the months ahead.
Trade diplomacy and the FED's monetary policy outlook are closely linked fundamental factors which have a direct impact on global equity market trends.
While the US inflation rate continues to trend towards the FED's 2% target, the FED is waiting for trade agreements to be signed to ensure that the risk of a second wave of inflation is averted, so that it can resume cutting the US federal funds rate.
These two fundamental conditions are essential if the global equity market is to confirm its new record highs over the coming months.
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USDJPY forms textbook head and shoulders patternOur last bearish call on USDJPY played out perfectly. Now, a new setup is forming. With US ISM data showing contraction and stock markets under pressure, the dollar-yen could be next to drop. Watch as we break down the textbook head and shoulders pattern and the levels to watch for a potential 600+ pip move. Target zones, risk-reward, and key breakout levels all included.