#EURUSD: At Perfect Area to Swing Sell Worth 1300+ Pips! The FX:EURUSD price is currently showing strong sell momentum, indicating a potential strong bearish trend in the coming time. We’ve already taken two swing sell positions on EURUSD. There are three targets you can set according to your own plan and strategy.
The DXY index suggests further price growth in the coming weeks. Please ensure you manage your risk while trading. This is our concept only and does not guarantee the movements we’ve shown in our analysis. Therefore, please conduct your own analysis before taking any swing entry.
Good luck and trade safely!
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My thoughts on EUR/USDSince January 31st, EUR/USD had been in a bullish trend--a bullish channel in the 4H and 1D. I knew we were about to break out of this bullish trend. I had been anticipating a very strong reversal for a while, given we recently retested the top of another stronger Trendline. A much more reliable channel. the channel I speak of is the 3M, 1M and 1W timeframe channels, they are bearish. We once again hit the resistance of this monthly channel, while, at the same time being in a bullish trend in the 4H and 1D timeframes. So obviously I presumed the 4H bullish trend would end and reverse-which it has and did. This monthly bearish channel has been active for 14-17 years and has perfectly retested the support and resistances numerous times--making it a valid A+ setup in my book. To further this, on the 4H-1D timeframes, while we were still inside this 4H bullish channel, we saw a perfect Head and Shoulders pattern and quickly got our confirmation when it crossed the neckline. All of this indicates we will see strong selling pressure very soon.
So, where are we headed exactly? Well we know that we have FVGs and strong Supports. key areas for TPs are 1.09, 1.06, and on the monthly as low as 0.82.
If you guys have any questions feel free to ask. And share your thoughts and opinions on EUR/USD--thanks :)
Example Short Orders
SL 1.137
Limit order 1.255
TP1 1.09
TP2 1.06
TP3 1.02
TP4 0.82
(Maybe i am wrong, but if I am it will be the first time in 17 years for EUR/USD.. I like the odds)
OANDA:EURUSD
BITCOIN Breaks Higher - Is $106K the Next Target?COINBASE:BTCUSD is trading within an ascending channel, signaling bullish momentum. The price has consistently respected the channel boundaries, forming higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the continuation of the uptrend.
Recently, the price has broken out with strong momentum and may now be pulling back for a retest. This area previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation.
If buyers confirm support at this level, the price is likely to move upward toward the $106,000 level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Conversely, a failure to hold support could signal a potential bearish shift.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing yesterday’s long trade opportunity.
Example Trade Setup: SFP Long
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5612
• Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle)
• Target: 5682 (mCVAH — confluence with recent highs)
• Risk: 66 ticks
• Reward: 280 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
________________________________________
Intraday Market Structure Review
What has the market done?
• ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level.
• Currently trading above:
o March 2025 low
o 2025 mid-year level
o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile
What is the market trying to do?
• Recover prior months' losses.
• Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows.
How well is it doing?
• Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience.
• Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive days—a strong bullish structure.
________________________________________
What Is More Likely to Happen from Here?
Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher
A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength.
Example Trade Idea:
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5688
• Stop: 5680
• Target: 5724 (May 2 High)
• Risk: 32 ticks
• Reward: 144 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R
Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs.
________________________________________
Scenario 2: Further Consolidation
• Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area.
• Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher.
• No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions.
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
Disney Stock Pops on Strong Earnings Data. Turnaround Working?The Magic Kingdom just pulled a rabbit out of its hat — and Wall Street’s loving it.
Disney stock NYSE:DIS surged 11% on Wednesday, not just for its best day in a year, but for the kind of earnings beat that makes analysts reconsider their entire valuation model while retail traders tweet “ NYSE:DIS to the moon.”
Is the House of Mouse finally finding its footing? Just a day ago, Disney shares were languishing 60% below their 2021 record. Let’s break it down.
♫ Earnings That Deserve Their Own Theme Song
Starting with the headline: adjusted earnings per share clocked in at $1.45 , stomping the $1.20 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $23.62 billion, a 7% jump from last year’s earnings performance and another beat that sent traders racing for their mouse ears.
After a year of streaming skepticism, cost-cutting, and investor hand-wringing over whether Bob Iger’s encore CEO tour could work magic, this quarter delivered. Bigly.
💪 Streaming Had No Business Going That Hard — But It Did
Wall Street was braced for a Disney+ subscriber drop. Instead, the company added 1.4 million new subscribers to 126 million, easily topping expectations of 123 million.
Not only are people still subscribing despite price hikes, but the direct-to-consumer segment (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) posted revenue growth of 8% to $6.12 billion, powered by both higher prices and surprise stickiness. Operating profit in streaming? A cool $336 million, up from $47 million a year ago.
Disney even raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.75, a 16% gain from fiscal 2024 — a confident flex in a market where most companies are still managing expectations with surgical pessimism.
⏫ Mickey’s New Best Friend: Margin Expansion
It wasn’t just top-line fireworks — the net income boom was one for the books: $3.28 billion in profits, compared to a $20 million loss a year ago.
Operating margins in streaming are on the rise. Profitability, once seen as an elusive dream for all the big streaming platforms, is suddenly in sight. Disney is guiding toward $875 million in streaming profit for this fiscal year — and based on this quarter, that may end up conservative.
🎡 Parks Still Pay the Bills — With a Sprinkle of Magic
Now let’s talk about the real engine behind Disney’s machine: the parks and experiences division.
Domestic parks posted a 13% profit increase, powered by higher visitor spending and the launch of a shiny new cruise ship.
That’s important in an economy where every other headline screams “recession imminent.” Disney’s park guests are ignoring macro headwinds and enjoying the fantasy — and that’s music to shareholders’ ears.
Worried about tariffs? Sure, but they haven’t shown up on Disney’s balance sheet just yet. And until they do, Disney’s parks remain a cash printer with castles.
🏟️ A Park in Abu Dhabi — Why It May Be Big
Tucked in among the streaming buzz and EPS upgrade was something that made global investors raise an eyebrow: a new Disney theme park in Abu Dhabi.
On the surface, this sounds like a headline for 2031. And sure, it’ll take a few years to plan and build, and a few more to create the commemorative popcorn bucket. But long-term investors should pay attention.
Abu Dhabi isn’t just a tourist destination — it’s a capital backed by one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and a keen interest in diversifying the revenue streams beyond oil. A Disney park there isn’t just another expansion — it’s a geopolitical bet on premium travel.
As Iger put it, it may seem modest now, but it’s quietly huge for the brand’s future footprint.
👀 What’s Behind the Magic? And Can It Last?
So the big question: is this a one-time sugar rush, or the start of a sustained turnaround?
There are reasons to be optimistic. Disney's streaming growth looks increasingly sustainable. Its content pipeline (including ESPN's evolving digital presence) is improving. The parks continue to defy economic gravity. And Iger seems to be rebalancing the business with a more profitable, investor-friendly mix.
But let’s not forget: content costs are still high, competition in streaming hasn’t gone anywhere, and park margins may come under pressure if consumer sentiment shifts. The macro backdrop remains complicated, and even Mickey can't outwit the Fed forever.
Still, this quarter wasn’t just “less bad than feared.” It was actually good — and that's a narrative shift that could power momentum.
🐭 The Mouse Still Got It
Disney’s earnings report, delivered in the heat of the earnings calendar , could be interpreted as a signal that the entertainment giant isn’t just navigating the new entertainment landscape — it might actually be mastering it.
And in a market starved for upside surprises, Disney just reminded investors that storytelling is its business — and this one’s finally got a happy twist.
The question now is whether traders and long-term holders believe in the next chapter. For now, with the stock back above $102 and the Magic Kingdom delivering financial magic, the bulls are back in the castle.
Your turn: Are you buying into Disney’s turnaround? Holding for the next golden age? Or still side-eyeing that subscriber chart? Let’s hear your play on NYSE:DIS below.
EURUSD Bearish Structure Forming Amid Dollar UncertaintyEURUSD appears to be carving out a series of lower highs, showing potential signs of distribution. With price compressing inside a symmetrical triangle following multiple failed breakout attempts, the stage could be set for a bearish breakdown. This comes as U.S. inflation and Fed policy hold the spotlight and the euro faces political and structural crosswinds.
📉 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart)
Triple Top / Head & Shoulders Variant Forming:
Price action has traced a rounded top sequence, forming a triple top or complex head and shoulders structure.
Each rally attempt has been followed by steeper declines and faster recoveries—typical of a topping process.
Triangle Contraction Zone:
Current price is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle, which is often a continuation pattern.
Bearish breakout is expected if support around 1.1330–1.1320 fails.
Key Bearish Targets:
TP1: 1.1090 – former resistance turned support.
TP2: 1.0890 – April breakout base and key structure low.
Trade Setup (as per chart):
Sell Entry Zone: Break and retest of 1.1320–1.1300.
Stop Loss: Above 1.1527 (supply zone high).
Targets:
TP1: 1.1090
TP2: 1.0890
🌐 Macro Context
USD Side:
Fed is holding rates steady amid rising inflation fears triggered by tariffs
Tariff shocks are already pushing prices up, while growth slows—a tough environment for the Fed.
Dollar could strengthen if market sentiment shifts risk-off.
Euro Side:
Former EU Commissioner Gentiloni calls for unified borrowing to boost the euro’s global role, as U.S. stability is questioned
Political uncertainty around German leadership transitions may also weigh on the euro short term.
✅ Conclusion
EURUSD is trading at the apex of a tightening triangle pattern following a distribution structure. With a clean break of 1.1320 support, expect increased volatility and bearish momentum toward 1.1090 and 1.0890.
BTC - Golden Pocket test & what comes next?Bitcoin (BTC) has been steadily recovering from its January correction, entering a promising uptrend that has now brought it to a crucial technical juncture: the Golden Pocket Fibonacci zone, which lies between the 61.8% and 65% retracement levels. This area is widely watched by traders, as it often serves as a springboard for either significant reversals or continuation of the trend.
4H timeframe
On the 4H timeframe, BTC recently formed an ascending triangle, a classic bullish continuation pattern. The price managed to break above the triangle’s resistance, but it failed to hold above this level, closing back below the breakout zone. This lack of follow-through signals weakness and suggests that a short-term pullback could be imminent.
Daily timeframe
Turning to the daily chart, the situation becomes even clearer. After reaching the Golden Pocket, BTC printed a bearish engulfing candlestick, a strong reversal signal. The subsequent price action saw BTC break below both the 4H support and a daily FVG, further strengthening the case for a deeper correction or trend reversal. If this downward momentum continues, the next major support zone is likely between $89,000 and $91,000. This area marks an imbalance created during the previous rally and is a natural target for buyers to step in.
However, the bullish scenario is not entirely off the table. If BTC can reclaim and hold above the Golden Pocket, it would signal a resumption of the uptrend, with the next key target being the psychologically significant $100,000 level. For now, though, the technical structure suggests that a retracement toward the $89–91k zone is more likely before any attempt at new highs.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent test of the Golden Pocket Fibonacci zone has resulted in a short-term rejection. The immediate outlook is cautious, with a likely retracement toward $89–91k. Traders should watch closely for confirmation signals in both price action and volume before making new commitments. A successful hold above the Golden Pocket would open the door for a rally toward $100,000, but for now, patience and careful observation are advised.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 5 - 9 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Fed and BoE Rate Decisions, Canada Jobs, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
— BoE’s Interest Rate Decision
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Arbitrum (ARB): Multiple Good Risk:Reward Ratio Trades | SidewayArbitrum caught our attention with a possible BOS forming on smaller timeframes and a good sideways channel forming, which eventually we are looking to be broken, where we might be taking a sweet long position with some good R:R.
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Academy
Break and retest setup on NFLX soon? OptionsMastery:
🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
US Stocks Pare Back All Tariff-Fueled Losses. Are We So Back?Remember “Liberation Day”? The one that felt more like Liquidation Day ? When markets tanked, tickers turned red, and you were afraid to check the markets on the next day? Well, turns out the rumors of the market’s demise were — once again — greatly exaggerated.
If the average recession 10 years ago lasted two years, this year’s recession was approximately 37 minutes (more or less, depending on the day).
Just a month ago, the S&P 500 SP:SPX started crumbling to the point it entered into correction territory (and then got out of correction territory ).
Long story short, it took the punches, went down 15%, stood back up, and is now throwing jabs with a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004, when iPods were still a thing and Facebook was just for Harvard students.
So… are we back? Like, really back? Let’s dig in.
💰 Trillions Lost, Trillions Found
On April 2, President Donald Trump dropped the hammer — or rather, the online post — unveiling his “reciprocal tariffs,” which, in true Trumpian fashion, sounded equal parts policy and promo PR.
Markets didn’t take it well. Global stocks collectively threw a tantrum. The S&P 500 dropped like it had a brick in its pocket . Financials cratered, energy took a gut punch, and tech? See for yourself — we don't want to talk about it .
But now? The dip buyers are shopping up, scooping up, snapping up everything from banks to oil stocks to beleaguered megacaps. Suddenly, all those stock discounts look like missed opportunities, and the cash-on-the-sidelines traders are jumping in.
👌 Jobs Data: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
Friday was a good day. Why? Because April’s nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report came in at 177,000 jobs — not too strong to trigger Fed-tightening fears, not too weak to imply economic decay. It was the goldilocks print.
The number was a drop from March’s revised 185,000, but what mattered was the beat: economists had pencilled in just 135,000. Markets took that as permission to throw a party.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, reclaiming the level it had before Trump’s tariff tirade and putting an emphatic end to the selloff. Nine green days in a row? That’s a bull flex Wall Street hasn’t seen in two decades.
💥 Truth Social Posts That Move Markets
Not to be left out of the celebration, Trump hopped onto Truth Social with his usual caps lock enthusiasm:
“THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”
Sounds familiar?
Still, even without a rate cut (for now), the market got what it wanted: signs that the US labor market isn’t collapsing, trade talks might be back on the table, and the economy hasn’t lost its way.
😌 A Global Sigh of Relief
While the US led the rally, global markets also joined the rebound chorus. China’s commerce ministry chimed in Friday, saying Washington had expressed a “desire to engage in discussions.” In market-speak, that translates to: "Everyone calm down — we might not blow this up after all."
It doesn’t take much to change sentiment. A tweet here, a headline there, a hint of diplomatic progress — suddenly risk appetite returns and everyone forgets they were panic-selling just three weeks ago.
But don’t go lining up the espresso martinis just yet — not everything is fully recovered. The US dollar, for example, remains nearly 4% below its pre-tariff-announcement level.
🤔 We Are So… Back?
So are we officially back? Short answer — “put the word out there that we back up” for now . Markets are up, volatility is down, and everyone’s pretending they didn’t sell the dip at the worst possible time.
But — and you knew there’d be a “but” — caution still applies. Trade tensions aren’t over. The next Trump post could shake things again. The Fed hasn’t made its next move (that’s coming this Wednesday). And geopolitics remains a powder keg.
Still, what this rebound tells us is clear: the market has resilience. Maybe not logic. Maybe not grace. But resilience? Yes.
It also reminds us that trying to time news-driven selloffs is a dangerous game. Often, the best trades happen when fear peaks and everyone else is running for the hills.
👉 Final Thoughts: Watch the Calendar, Not the Chaos
The key takeaway from this tariff-to-rally rollercoaster? Markets can move fast — but they can also recover faster. If you panicked, you probably sold low. If you stayed focused, checked the earnings calendar , and remembered that market narratives shift like wind direction, you're probably doing well right now.
We’re so back — for now. But stay sharp. This market may have nine lives, but it also has the attention span of a toddler.
Your move : Did you ride the dip? Buy the bounce? Or just mute the chaos and sip your coffee? Drop your best “Liberation Day to Redemption Rally” trade below.
BTC Building Strength – Breakout Ahead?$BTC/USDT Weekly Analysis
Bitcoin continues to respect the 50 EMA on the weekly timeframe — a key dynamic support level that has consistently held throughout this bullish structure.
Each time BTC corrected, it found support near the 50 EMA before bouncing back with strength. The current structure mirrors past price action, with price again rebounding from the EMA after a consolidation phase.
We’re also seeing a pattern of lower highs forming a potential descending resistance line. A breakout above this trendline could trigger a fresh rally, possibly taking BTC to new highs.
As long as Bitcoin stays above the 50 EMA, the mid-to-long-term bias remains bullish. A confirmed breakout above the descending resistance could open the door for a strong upside continuation.
DYOR, NFA
Thanks for following along — stay tuned for more updates!
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again following on from yesterdays update, this 4 chart is also playing out perfectly. After completing both our Bullish 3343 and bearish 3282 targets; we stated price will play tennis between both levels. We also stated that we will look for ema5 cross and lock on either level to determine the next move.
- Ema5 crossed and locked below 3282 opening 3224. This was hit perfectly today on the drop completing the full retracement range. We will now look for a break below this level to open the swing range or failure to lock below will see a retest on the next Goldturn above. Each weighted level is still also providing the 30 to 40 pip bounces, just like we always state.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3343 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3282 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3224 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3190 - 3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SOL Analysis Deep Dive: Identifying Optimal Entry and Exit ZonesYesterday, SOL gave a sharp downside shakeout, dropping from the weekly open at $147.98 (perfectly retested) down to the 0.5 Fib retracement of the swing at $140.25. Here’s a structured breakdown of the key levels, trade setups, and R:R profiles for both longs and shorts:
🔑 Key Levels & Confluences
1. Higher-Timeframe Opens
Weekly Open & Retest: $147.98 – pivoted price before the drop
Monthly & Prior-Day Open Cluster: $147.98–$146.31 – strong support confluence zone
2. Fibonacci Support Zones
0.5 Fib at $140.25 – primary mean-reversion entry
0.786 Fib (smaller wave) at $138.78 – secondary, deeper support
3. Order Block
Daily Bullish Order Block at $139.87 – just below 0.5 Fib, adds extra support
4. Volume-Weighted Average Price
Anchored VWAP (from ATH $295.83) at ~$166.45 – key upside resistance
5. Market Profile Value Areas (10-Day Range)
Value Area High (VAH) at ~$153.00 – overhead resistance confluence
Value Area Low (VAL) at ~$145.75 – underpins support
📈 Long Trade Setups
1. 0.5/0.786 Fib + Daily Bullish Order Block
Entry: $141-138.78
Stop-Loss: $137.5
Target: $165 (anchored VWAP / Fib zones)
R:R ≈ 9:1
2. Higher-Timeframe Open Cluster
Entry Zone: $147.98–$146.31(monthly/weekly open)
Stop-Loss: $142.5
Target: $165
R:R ≈ 3:1
• Why these levels? The 0.5 Fib is a classic mean-reversion zone, bolstered by the daily order block. The $147–146 zone ties together multiple opens (weekly, monthly, prior-day), offering a solid demand area if price retraces back up.
📉 Short Trade Setup
Trigger: Rejection / swing-failure around $153.4
Entry: $153.4
Stop-Loss: $154.3
Target: Weekly/Monthly open (~$147)
R:R ≈ 6:1
• Low-risk short: A clean rejection at the recent high lets you define risk tightly above the swing, aiming to capture the retrace back to the opens.
🎯 Summary & Game Plan
Primary bias: Look for long entries at the 0.5 Fib ($140.25) or the open-cluster zone ($147–146), with targets toward the anchored VWAP at ~$166.
Alternate bias: A short on clear rejection from $153.4, targeting the opens as support.
Risk management: Keep stops tight (SL below $137.5 or above $154.3) to maximize R:R on your favored setups.
Volume & Price Action: Confirm entries with an uptick in volume or bullish price structure (for longs) or swift failure patterns (for shorts).
Now it’s a waiting game! Let price revisit these zones, watch for confirmation signals, and then scale into your chosen side. Good luck! Don't chase, let the charts come to you!
____________________________________
If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
ADA/USDT: Is ADA Preparing for Its Next Rally?(READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Cardano (ADA) chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that over the past few months, the price surged from $0.33 to $1.32, delivering a gain of over 300%. After reaching its highest level in 3 years, it faced selling pressure and corrected down to $0.50.
Currently, Cardano is trading around $0.70, and if the price can hold and close above the $0.65 level, we may expect further upside in the medium term.
The next potential targets are $0.75, $0.81, $0.93, and $1.05, respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bitcoin - Repeating History: 100k Next Target?Bitcoin is continuing to move with clean structure, driven by demand imbalances and breakout continuation setups. After the initial breakout from the mid-April range, price moved in a highly technical fashion, consolidating, breaking out, forming a fair value gap, and then retesting it before continuation. That exact structure looks like it's playing out again. Bitcoin just broke out of another multi-day consolidation and left behind a fresh 4h imbalance, suggesting the potential for another leg higher if it respects that zone on a pullback.
Consolidation Structure
The prior breakout came from a tight range just below $86,000. BTC spent several days compressing in that area, then broke out impulsively, creating a 4h FVG and retesting it cleanly. That retest held perfectly and launched a rally of nearly $10,000.
The current setup is structurally the same. BTC spent 8 days consolidating under $95,000, repeatedly testing the resistance without breaking it. It finally closed decisively above, leaving behind another fair value gap. The sequence is familiar, sideways accumulation, breakout, FVG left behind, and now a setup for retest.
Bullish/Bearish Scenarios
The bullish scenario is centered on a retest of the new 4h FVG, located between roughly $94,200 and $95,000. If price pulls back into that imbalance and buyers defend it, the setup for continuation is clean. Based on recent behavior, a successful retest here could easily carry BTC toward the $100,000 level.
If price instead breaks back below $94,000 and falls into the previous consolidation range, that invalidates the breakout structure. In that case, Bitcoin could either enter another range-bound phase or trap longs with a deviation. That would shift the focus to reassessing structure instead of chasing continuation.
Price Target and Expectations
The short-term upside target is $100,000. That level is both a psychological milestone and a likely liquidity magnet. From a structural perspective, it aligns with the last breakout leg, which moved over $9,000 after a similar retest setup. If buyers defend the FVG, there is not much in the way until $100,000.
The momentum behind the breakout supports that expectation. The move was impulsive, clear, and not showing signs of exhaustion. As long as structure holds, price is in a strong position to continue toward that key round number level.
Current Stance
This setup is not a breakout chase, it’s a retest setup. The breakout already happened, and the market left behind a fair value gap that now needs to be tested. If price pulls into the $94K to $95K zone and reacts strongly, that would confirm demand. That’s the moment to step in, with invalidation placed below the FVG and former resistance.
Until then, it's about staying patient and letting price come to the key level. The structure is clear, the plan is defined, and there’s no need to force a trade in the middle of the range.
Conclusion
Bitcoin looks like it’s repeating the exact same structure we saw earlier this month. Range, breakout, FVG, retest, that sequence played out before and led to a major leg higher. It’s playing out again now with nearly identical timing and behavior.
If the 4h imbalance holds, the next phase of this rally likely targets $100,000. The structure is clean, the behavior is technical, and there’s no reason to overcomplicate it. Let price do its thing, wait for the retest, and if the reaction is strong, follow the same playbook that’s already worked once this month.
___________________________________
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TradingView Live Show: Charting Volatility with TradeStationJoin us for an insightful TradingView live stream with David Russell, Head of Global Market Strategy, as we dive into the impact of tariffs, market volatility, and key macroeconomic developments shaping today's trading environment.
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Gold-Silver Ratio: Silver’s Lag and Historical DivergencesThe gold-silver ratio - the number of silver ounces equals in value to one ounce of gold – has surged recently as gold prices rally while silver underperforms. Gold, a traditional safe-haven, has climbed to record highs amid economic uncertainty, whereas silver, which is partly an industrial commodity, has struggled to break past $35/oz. As a result, the ratio is around 100 – meaning gold is ~100 times the price of silver despite the correction in the ratio from its peak around 125.
For context, the ratio averaged 57 from 1975-2000, and between 2000-2025 the ratio has ranged from 32 and 125 (with the max level reached this month with an average of 68. The ratio has observed extreme spikes in unusual crises).
Today’s elevated ratio highlights the divergence between gold’s sharp rally and silver’s lagging performance. The 25-year mean of the ratio is at 68, suggesting the present levels (100) represent an extreme deviation in favour of gold.
Historical Parallels in Gold-Silver Divergences
Similar wide divergences between gold and silver have occurred in the past. Key historical episodes illustrate how silver eventually played “catch-up” after lagging gold – albeit with varying lag times:
1970s – Silver’s Late Surge: After the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold prices soared while silver lagged. However, silver eventually staged a sharp rally later in the decade, quickly closing the gap and driving the gold-silver ratio sharply lower.
1980s – Prolonged Underperformance: Following the 1980 peak, precious metals collapsed, with silver suffering far more than gold. The gold-silver ratio surged and remained elevated through the 1980s and 1990s, as silver failed to catch up and largely moved sideways until the 2000s.
Early 2000s – Post-Recession Catch-Up: After the 2001 recession, gold began a
new bull market while silver initially lagged. Eventually, silver outpaced gold’s gains over the next several years, significantly narrowing the gold-silver ratio.
2008 Financial Crisis – Sharp Divergence and Recovery: The 2008 crisis caused gold to outperform sharply as silver collapsed. However, as the economy recovered, silver staged a dramatic rebound, quickly closing the gap and normalizing the ratio by 2011.
Why Is Silver Lagging Now? Industrial Demand Uncertainty
Roughly half of silver demand is industrial (electronics, photovoltaics, chemicals). Persistent worries about a global manufacturing slowdown and elevated inventories have capped silver’s upside just as investors have chased gold for geopolitical protection.
Source: Silver Institute
Worries about industrial demand have been exacerbated by the recent trade uncertainties which impact industrial sectors in an outsized manner.
By contrast, gold’s appeal as a safe haven has been boosted by geopolitical and inflation fears, driving it to record highs in 2025.
Despite cyclical swings, the underlying secular trend has crept higher for decades. Gold’s monetisation (central-bank reserves, ETF holdings surge) versus silver’s demonetisation, higher real production costs for gold, and silver’s growing industrial elasticity are all factors that represent a risk to normalization of the GSR.
Even a forceful mean-reversion might therefore stall nearer 60–70 than the sub-40 extremes of earlier cycles.
Hypothetical Trade Setups
History shows that once macroeconomic uncertainty clears, silver often recovers lost ground quickly. In previous periods of extreme gold-silver divergence, from the 1970s through 2008, silver staged strong rallies that pushed the gold-silver ratio (GSR) back toward normal levels.
Today, however, silver’s outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, particularly amid the ongoing trade war. Prices risk stalling below resistance around $35/oz. Consequently, the normalization in the GSR may instead result from a correction in gold prices. Gold has consistently broken record highs, and its long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Nevertheless, concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally are valid - last week, gold fell sharply after setting a new high above $3,500/oz.
In summary, a normalization in the GSR could result from either a silver rally or a gold correction. While each path remains uncertain, a position focused on the ratio itself is relatively insulated from further divergence.
Given this environment, we could express our view in GSR through a long position in silver and a short position in gold. Investors can implement this using CME Micro Silver and Micro Gold futures. This setup benefits from 72% margin offsets. The Micro contracts balance the notional value between both legs by using one contract each.
A hypothetical trade setup consisting of a short position in CME Micro Gold futures expiring in June (MGCM2025) and a short position in CME Micro Silver futures expiring in June (SILM2025), offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x, is described below.
MARKET DATA
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EURUSD -Broke and Retested Right ShoulderEU - Is providing a great entry. Its sitting on a 4 hour ob. price has been sitting for 3 years in a consolidation phase. looks like this year we are looking to be in a bullish phase. price is sitting on a nice solid support. I will be looking to enter a buy today and hold to the next resistance area
WOLF has short squeeze potential.Initially, I was looking at this just as a day trade due to it matching my criteria. These were my notes for pregame trade.
"1. Stock is in play, premarket rvol showing 14.
2. continuation play from yesterday with a gap up; technicals is showing two converging patterns, a cup and handle, and a GAP fill; has CLEAR resistance lines on the way up.
3. price is within my 1.5 - 25$ range
4. No real news catalyst. (usually prefer one)
5. Hot market (semiconductors made in USA)
I say its a B+ set-up given the parameters. Definitely the choice to play at this point of the market day.
P.S. Stock has the HIGHEST short interest / percentage in the semiconductor market. 41% ish of float is shorted. so ANY large up trend can be an AMAZING uptrend."
Then I realized how much 40% short interest actually is with a float of around 150mil, thats a ton of shortage. And more importantly, (or equally) there are TWO gaps in the chart that can be filled. I think these can force liquidate the shorts. This can easily reach $17 in the next two weeks to month.