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Elliott Wave

BITCOIN → False breakout of the all-time high zoneBINANCE:BTCUSDT is rising amid the US government shutdown and testing the all-time high zone and resistance at 123.3K - 123.7K. A false breakout has formed and the market is moving into local consolidation. The price is reacting aggressively to the retest of the uptrend support. A rally is forming, and Bitcoin is testing the ATH zone. As part of the distribution (14% rally), the price reaches an important resistance zone, behind which lies a liquidity pool - 123.3K - 124.5K. However, the growth ends with a false breakout and subsequent price consolidation in the sales zone. To break through such a strong zone, the market needs significant consolidation, which is currently lacking, and the news that caused the price to grow so strongly has already partially exhausted its potential. Thus, the market may move into consolidation, correction to accumulate potential, or wait for the next bullish driver. Resistance levels: 123.3K, 123.7K, 124.5K Support levels: 119.2K, 117.8K I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of 123.7 - 124.5, but technically, on Friday, the market began a sell-off (profit-taking), forming a sufficiently long shadow on the daily candlestick. In the medium term, I expect a correction to the local break-even and imbalance zone of 119K - 117K before another attempt at growth is made Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
13
Can NASDAQ Hold 24,600 and Push to New Highs?Hey Traders, in tomorrow’s trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a potential buying opportunity around the 24,600 zone. NASDAQ remains in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching a key support/resistance level at 24,600. Structure: The broader trend is bullish, with price moving within an ascending channel. Key level in focus: 24,600 — a critical support area aligning with the lower boundary of the channel. Next move: Holding above this level could set the stage for a rebound toward 25,100, which represents the channel’s upper resistance and potential higher high formation. Trade safe, Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by JoeChampion
8
SOLANA UPDATE (1D)SOL is currently at a decision point, mainly due to both the ongoing recession and the delayed ETF approvals. On the daily chart, it’s getting squeezed inside a large wedge pattern. Normally, it should make one more top before breaking down. However, just to be clear — if price drops below 192, there’s a strong possibility of a sharp sell-off. That’s where both the character shift and wedge breakdown would occur. Some additional details: Volume is flat and indecisive. It’s moving in line with the wedge, which isn’t a great sign. Typically, this kind of volume behavior is seen during wedge formations. The RSI looks unusual — there are both negative and hidden bullish divergences. If you’re wondering which one matters more, it’s the hidden bullish divergence — it’s the stronger signal here. If the recent high is broken, we could see SOL climbing towards the 270 region, after which we’ll know whether the wedge remains valid. However, in general, the outlook doesn’t look too strong at the moment.
by vs_sayin
2
XRP/USD — Breakout Playbook 2-Day ChartXRP — Breakout Playbook (Weekly Context + 2-Day Execution, With Divergences & Wave Map) 1) Market position (where price sits now) Price is compressing beneath a descending trendline and just under a horizontal range ceiling after a strong upside impulse. The prior pullback held inside the mapped support box (approx. 2.85–2.64 on the chart), keeping the higher-timeframe up-leg viable. 2) Momentum state & divergences Now (2-Day): Regular bullish divergence printed into the box: price made an equal/lower low while the MACD histogram made a higher low. This signals seller fatigue into support and raises the odds that a valid break can sustain if participation appears. Anticipated (near resistance): Regular bearish divergence risk is elevated into 4.46–4.60 and again near 5.05. Expect momentum to lag if the move matures; divergence there often precedes a reaction. On the throwback: a successful retest frequently forms hidden bullish divergence (price makes a higher low while momentum makes a lower low). That pattern supports the “acceleration” phase. 3) Wave roadmap (now → next) Primary count on the breakout path The current advance is mapped as micro A–B–C, with C ≈ A (1:1) clustering in the 4.46–4.60 band; a higher-hierarchy objective resides around 5.05. After the first clean break, the standard path is: Wave 1 up through the ceiling → Wave 2 throwback to retest the broken trendline/ceiling → Wave 3 extension targeting 4.46–4.60, with potential continuation toward 5.05 if momentum holds. What qualifies the Wave-2 retest Pullback respects the former cap (trendline/ceiling acts as support). The reaction back up shows volume expansion and improving momentum. The Wave-2 low stays above the Wave-1 origin (structure intact). 4) Breakout qualification (must see both) Close through the cap and range high on the 2-Day. Participation: volume clearly above recent average on the break. → After that, a weekly close that holds above the level promotes the move from tactical to structural. 5) Path after confirmation (scenarios) Base scenario — continuation with throwback Break → throwback to the breakout line (common) → hold → acceleration. Wave-3 behavior: broad bars, rising participation, momentum improving. Targets by confluence on the chart: 4.46–4.60 (equality/congestion band) = first reaction zone. ~5.05 = higher decision area; expect a larger battle there. Alternate bullish — deeper retest first If the breakout wicks and fails to stick on the first attempt, a deeper retest into the upper half of the support box can still resolve higher, provided weekly structure remains intact and momentum rebuilds. Bearish/failed break Pop above resistance without volume, followed by a close back inside the range = false breakout risk; immediate de-risk and await a fresh setup. A new closing low below ~2.64 (box floor) breaks the structure of the current weekly idea. 6) Risk, invalidation, and management Tactical invalidation (post-break): a 2-Day close back under the reclaimed level on rising volume. Structural invalidation: weekly close back inside the prior range after confirmation, or loss of the most recent weekly higher low. Stop logic: trail beneath successive 2-Day swing lows during the advance; after weekly confirmation, management can widen to weekly swings to respect higher-TF trend. Profit handling: expect churn and potential bearish divergence at 4.46–4.60; partials are reasonable there. If momentum/volume remain constructive, leave a runner toward ~5.05. 7) Execution checklist (pin next to the chart) 2-Day close above the descending cap and the horizontal ceiling ✅ Volume expansion on the breakout bar(s) ✅ Weekly close holds above the break ✅ Throwback: test of former cap; holds as support ✅ Wave-3 tells after the retest: broader candles, improving momentum, higher participation ✅ Zones to manage: 4.46–4.60 (reaction/divergence risk), then ~5.05 (bigger decision). Failure tells: quick close back in range, retest breaks down, or fresh weekly lower low → stand down.
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by WaveFibs
3
AUDUSD Eyes 0.65900 as Gold Nears Record HighHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.65900 zone. AUDUSD remains in an uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price moving toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias is bullish, with price retracing toward trend support. Key level in focus: 0.65900 — an important area where buyers may look to re-enter. Fundamentals: Gold continues to rise and is nearing a fresh ATH, supported by a bearish US Dollar bias. Given the positive correlation between AUDUSD and Gold, further upside on the pair remains likely. Next move: Monitoring price reaction at 0.65900 to assess whether the trend resumes higher. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
9
BTC Double Zigzag Ending on Terminal Impulse (Elliott Wave)BTC has formed into a double zigzag from the low in 2023 until now. This is the same count that my friend Glenn Neely (the founder of Neowave) is following. At this point there aren't really any other counts that appear to make sense. Especially considering the terminal impulse that wave-c has formed (see Daily chart). We've already begun breaking down from the rising wedge pattern, which is a strong indication that wave-c has concluded. Beyond just Elliott Wave/Neowave considerations, this has also formed long-term momentum divergences on the AO, and a clear weekly wiseman right at the end of wave-5 of c, perfectly aligned with the 0.5(a+b) time target for wave-c. This perfect confluence of signals here is a very strong signal the market has topped out long-term, and could retrace all the way back to ~$23k in the worst case scenario. Other potential retracement levels are labeled on the chart. If this does end up breaking $125k, then it may be a good idea to flip bullish as the bull cycle could continue for an unknown amount of time after that. For now, probabilities are starting to stack up indicating that the top is in and a big retracement is coming.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
2
Still going up for goldHi traders, Last week my outlook on gold was wrong. It turned out that gold was slowly going up some more. Now it finished another correction down and rejected from the Daily bullish FVG so next week we could see more upside again. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish and trade longs again. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
SPX500USD is still going upHi traders, Another move for SPX500USD that played out as predicted in my previous outlook. After a small correction last week it went up and made another small correction down. So next week we could see more upside again to make a new ATH. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
NIFTY50.....Sideways trading range!Hello Traders, the NIFTY50 rose 239 points or 0.97% for the week. It opened with a gap to the upside, but closed it immediately! Overall, the N50 is trading within a sideways range, from 25449 to 242587. Chart analysis: If the N50 extends its short-term gains, the target range is around 25449 and above, to the pink rectangle, from 25523-25654 area. Extending this further, the next pink rectangle comes into focus in the 26K-26250 area. To the downside, there is potential to drop to 24478-24295! More bearish potential exist. As long as the green wave (ii) low is not touched, the labels are still valid in my view If so, the targets to look for are much lower. But one step at a time. On the upside, there is a chance to rise, after the 25448 has overcome, to 26312-27438 in extension. This could be a wave (iii), in green, with more bullish potential to the upside. Well, friends, that's it for today. Have a great week.... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
EU could go up one more timeHi traders, Last week EU tried to go down after it rejected from the bearish Daily FVG. But on Thursday it rejected from the 4H FVG and started to go up again. So it looks like that the downmove is corrective and this pair goes up one more time to finish a big ending diagonal. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower time frame to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Elliott wavecount and patterns, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
1
GBPUSD | 4HGBP/USD – Wedge Pattern Analysis | GreenfireForex The GBP/USD (1H timeframe) is currently forming a contracting wedge pattern (A–B–C–D–E), indicating potential price compression before a decisive breakout. 🔹 Key Observations: The pair is completing wave E, touching the upper wedge resistance. Price is expected to face selling pressure near the resistance line, forming a short-term corrective move. A breakout below the wedge could open a move toward the 1.34200–1.33500 demand zone. However, if buyers defend support, we may see another push back toward 1.35000 before reversal. 📊 Structure Breakdown: A–C–E → Lower highs (trendline resistance) B–D → Higher lows (trendline support) Possible continuation: ABCDE → Breakout Blue zones mark potential liquidity areas and entry/exit zones. ⚡ Trading Outlook: Watch for confirmation candles near the E point before positioning. A clean breakout with volume will confirm the next major move. 🧠 Pattern type: Falling wedge (potential bullish reversal) 🕓 Timeframe: 1H 💰 Instrument: GBP/USD
by Greenfireforex
TSLA Roadmap: $563 ABCD Compl → Bat Harmonic → $631 Three-DriveTesla (TSLA) appears to be completing its final impulsive wave toward the $563 region, which also aligns with the D point completion of the ABCD harmonic pattern. Once this move is finished, the expectation is for a corrective phase that forms a Bat harmonic. This retracement would also work to fill in the untested gaps left behind during the recent rally, with a potential bottom around the 78.6% Fibonacci level. From there, the next bullish leg could initiate, targeting the 127.2% extension at $631. This move would not only confirm the harmonic reversal but also complete a larger Three-Drive pattern that originates from the initial ABCD structure. Key Levels to Watch: ABCD Harmonic D point: ~$563 Bat Harmonic completion zone: ~78.6% retracement Next rally target: $631 (127.2% extension, Three-Drive pattern confirmation) Invalidation Scenarios: A clean breakout above $563 without corrective rejection would invalidate the Bat harmonic setup and suggest an extended bullish run. A failure to hold above ~$367 (channel/structure support) would weaken the harmonic roadmap and risk a deeper bearish continuation instead of a Three-Drive completion. This roadmap suggests a critical short-term top before a deeper correction sets the stage for a much larger rally.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by msezng
MSTR Headed to Balance Sheet Insolvency?If my wave forecast is correct and BTC trades down toward $23K (ie. 80% log retracement level of the 2023-2025 bull run), MicroStrategy (Strategy) becomes balance sheet insolvent: liabilities (convertible debt + preferreds like STRK/STRF/STRD/STRC) would exceed assets. That doesn’t mean automatic bankruptcy. Their convertibles only cost ~$35M/yr in interest, and even with ~$550–$680M/yr on ~$6.43B at 8–10% in preferred dividends layered on top, they can still cover fixed obligations short-term by liquidating BTC or issuing more equity. That keeps them out of Chapter 11 in the near term. But the trade-off is ugly: Massive dilution from issuing stock at distressed prices, or Selling BTC at $23K just to stay afloat. The real problem is the refinancing wall starting late 2027. With equity wiped on paper and ~$1.1B coming due by early 2028, any refinancing deal will be extremely punitive, handing creditors cheap equity or forcing fire-sale BTC disposals. Market pricing implication: Equity = option value only. Common stock would likely collapse into deeply distressed single digits (<$10), well below NAV, because shareholders sit behind $8.2B in converts and $6.4B+ in high-yield preferreds. So even if BTC really does retrace all the way to $23k, MSTR doesn’t go to $0 right away, but the stock trades like a distressed, over-leveraged call option on Bitcoin, with survival depending entirely on a rebound before maturities hit. BTC Forecast:
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Intuit
Let Bitcoin make a new ATHHi traders, My outlook on Bitcoin last week was wrong and I'm the first to admit it. I can't be 100% right. So we move on to the next possibility. Last week Bitcoin went up very impulsive from out of nowhere due to fundamental news. Now let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Let price make a new ATH and wait for the (corrective or impulsive) move down to take a trade bullish or bearish. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
by EduwaveTrading
1
Tesla (TSLA) – Final Wave 5 to Complete Cypher HarmonicTesla is progressing through its final impulsive Wave 5, with upside targets aligning at $563–$564, confluencing with the 1.272–1.618 Fib extensions and the completion of the Cypher harmonic (point D). Once this target is reached, a corrective decline is anticipated, forming the Cypher retracement and potentially filling untested gaps below. Key levels to watch: Upside target: $488.5, then $563–$564 zone (Cypher completion). Downside retracement: possible move back toward the $350–$360 region (0.618–0.786 support). Invalidation: A breakout above $565 would invalidate the Cypher completion zone and suggest extended bullish continuation. A breakdown below $400 before reaching $488 invalidates the Wave 5 structure. This scenario blends Elliott Wave 5 projections with harmonic Cypher confluence for a potential high-probability setup.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by msezng
Bitcoin — Comprehensive Late-Trend RoadmapBitcoin — comprehensive update: late-trend ladder, potential 4→5, and channel targets Thesis BTC is advancing inside a rising Elliott channel from the 2022 low. Late in an impulse, wave-5 often terminates near the channel’s upper line (sometimes with a brief throw-over), while momentum divergences frequently appear as higher highs print with weakening oscillators. That combination frames the next weeks: respect channel boundaries for upside targets and require price confirmation for any reversal. Structure map (what the channel says) Channeling guideline: after wave-4 is identified, draw a trendline 2→4 and run a parallel through 3 to project the likely wave-5 termination zone; many 5s end at, or just beyond, this upper boundary. Throw-over risk: a brief penetration of the upper line by wave-5 can precede a major reversal; treat it as terminal unless acceptance above the channel holds on retest. Levels (prices on the map) Upside decision ladder — current impulse extensions 1.618 → $126,738 (typical wave-3 target; first decision/scale zone) 1.786 → $128,767 (often tags in strong legs) 2.000 → $131,398 (common wave-5 equality/overthrow checkpoint) Acceptance through the full ladder shifts focus to the next confluence. (Use standard Fib extension practice from the last clear base.) Stretch / confluence above 0.618 higher-degree cluster → ~$139,205 (popular profit-taking/reassessment area in crypto trends). Dynamic channel guidance Rising median of the 2022-anchored channel ≈ $150k now; linear projection implies ~$156k–$160k if contacted ~4 weeks later, depending on slope. Median/upper lines often act as magnets/termination rails late in trends. Momentum/diff checklist (confirmation logic) Bearish divergence = price higher high with RSI/MACD lower high → a warning of trend fatigue; treat as context and wait for price triggers (e.g., break of the last higher low). Throwback behavior after upward breakouts is common; a retest that holds often resumes the uptrend. Do not assume failure unless support breaks. Scenarios & exact triggers (including the “possible 4 → another 5” path) A) Wave-3 at 1.618, then a real wave-4, then final wave-5 (classic) Path: Pause/roll at $126,738–$131,398 → corrective wave-4 (shallow to moderate) → renewed push for wave-5 toward $139,205 and potentially the channel upper/median. Triggers: Wave-4 confirmation = loss of the last HL on execution TF (1h/4h) without breaking larger uptrend structure. Wave-5 confirmation = reclaim of broken level + momentum re-acceleration. B) No meaningful 4 yet → direct press to 2.0 and stretch Path: Clean acceptance above $131,398 (2.0) with no fresh divergence → $139,205; if momentum persists, risk of throw-over into the channel’s upper line; then monitor throwback retest. Triggers: Daily/3D closes through $131,398 with strengthening MACD/RSI, then alert at $139,205 for profit-taking and reversal risk management. C) Divergence rejection at the ladder → truncated/short 5 Path: Price prints marginal HH into $126,738–$131,398 while RSI/MACD make LH → rejection → 5-down on 15m/1h → measured pullback toward 23.6–38.2% of the advance; larger reassessment thereafter. Triggers: Bearish divergence plus break of the last HL and failure on retest (confirmation over anticipation). Risk management (mechanical, level-driven) Into $126,738 / $128,767 / $131,398: scale partials or hedge; if fading, hard stops above the spike-high to avoid terminal 5 squeezes. On acceptance → $139,205: trail under prior HLs; expect a throwback and treat it as continuation unless structure fails. On confirmed reversal: first targets = 23.6–38.2% retrace of the leg; deeper moves require fresh evidence. One-screen summary (for the Idea caption) Decision ladder: $126,738 → $128,767 → $131,398. Stretch box: $139,205; beyond that, channel median/upper (~$150k now; $156–160k if tagged weeks later). Bull path: acceptance above the ladder with rising momentum → box/rail; manage throwback. Bear path: divergence + HL break at the ladder → 23.6–38.2% reset. Channeling and throw-over/throwback guidelines support these outcomes
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by WaveFibs
XAU USD - keeps on giving in 2025Hello, it's been a while. I've been on working building my pile in XAG, XAU reserves. Now i am back, Gold is still giving a phenomenal return on printing up and right (meaning growth). I don't know where price structure will end, however it's a highly probable chance we will hit $4,000USD per oz, and continue to raise. Daily chart image shows my thought pattern and an opportunity I am waiting for price to revert to. I'm referring to the Daily price chart and key counts are in line with Wave counting and supply and demand curve trading levels based on fair value gap intervals of weekly trading sessions plotted to a daily chart at intervals of 60. Current wave - 3 of 5 in the Elliott wave count. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1