So,I mentioned before I am going long on dollar because of many economic indicators suggests long. We got CPI not easing and it is bullish for dxy We got NFP also showing strength of labor market Last FOMC minutes report also says high interest rates might be possible for longer time
The data coming out of the US continues to support an additional hike this year, with all FED speakers continuing their hawkish stance to return inflation to the 2% target, so getting more likely there'll be a hike in November IMO. Seeing stagflation in the EUROZONE, also real bond yields are positive in the US which makes the USD mo5re attractive, this all makes...
Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data. Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR. We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US...
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5943, down 1.27% on the day. The US dollar has strengthened against the major currencies after today's inflation report and the New Zealand dollar has been hit particularly hard. On Friday, New Zealand releases the manufacturing index, which is expected to...
The U.S. Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) flattening is a textbook sign of recession. However the S&P500 (blue trend-line) keeps recovering and rising from the 2022 Inflation Crisis. At the same time, the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) may have taken a pause but is on a strong decline, while the Interest Rate (orange trend-line) is turning sideways. The question on...
Yesterday EURUSD continued the correction and reached exactly 61,8 of the last drop. Today is the first Friday of the month and as usual NFP will be released. It's an important news and we expect a reaction. Upon another rise and pullback we will consider selling to break the previous low. We do not consider buying EURUSD until there is a break of the previous high.
The world of fractals is astonishing, if we follow this similarity, the bearish trend should resume until April, therefore before the next Halving and when SEC will accept spot BTC ETFs :)
The attractiveness of Gold is tarnished When cash instruments yield a positive rate of return More and more people are getting on board of higher interest rates (Dimon, Santelli) But u can see the Gold price has been inversely correlating with the rate of return for decades. It's bull run in the 2000's along with the commodity bull , coincided with real rates...
The euro is sharply lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0495, down 0.75%. The euro continues to struggle and has reeled off 10 straight losing weeks, with EUR/USD sliding some 700 basis points during that time. Germany's manufacturing sector continues to struggle. In September, the Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 39.6...
At the start of 2023, our key assumption was that bullish trends would dominate the market this year despite the challenging global macroeconomic conditions following the post-COVID-19 era. Our prediction proved accurate, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has already surged by over 10%, despite the ongoing high hydrocarbon prices. Bears have been trying to regain...
CME: Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. By concept, hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In reality, market perception to the Fed actions evolves over time, sometimes blurring the difference between “good news” and “bad news”. • On May...
The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while...
The euro has moved upwards on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0597, up 0.30%. After falling sharply earlier this week, the euro has rebounded and gained close to 1% since Wednesday. The eurozone's inflation level dropped to 4.3% y/y in September, a sharp decline from the August reading of 5.2% y/y and below market expectations of 4.5%...
CME: USD/Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ) What’s the strongest currency in 2023? Hint: Not the US dollar. • Although dollar index has rallied nearly 6% in the past two months, it gained just 2.1 points, or +1.9%, year-to-date, to settle at 105.583 as of September 22, 2023. • British Pound futures ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:6B ) was up 2.0% YTD, to close at $1.225 per...
First time since the doldrums in 2011 The cost of a 30 year mortgage is astronomical Mortgage demand has frozen ... Refinancing has also fallen off a cliff I'm looking for sellers to start capitulating soon ... (as in within the next few quarters) As we start to see the consumer at breaking point.
The market had priced in the no rate changes, however, the FED members' expectation of one additional hike and keeping the rates high in 2024 created a downside pressure for the markets. Although the record of the FED members' predictions for these matters is very poor, the market decided to use this opportunity for the traditional sell party in September. ...
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%,...
The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3474, up 0.09%. Canada wraps up the week with the retail sales report on Friday. July's retail sales were weak, with a gain of 0.1% m/m and a decline of 0.6% y/y. August is expected to show improvement, with consensus estimates of 0.4% m/m and 0.5%...