Fundamental Backdrop ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.6 with 51.9 previous. Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1983 Support level at 1946 Price is currently hovering around the support level and we could potentially see rejection off this level Idea Monday asian session, hence will wait for price to stabilise before entering onto any...
USDCAD is currently in wave 4, which is a WXY correction. Wave W = 535 ZigZag Correction Wave X = 335 Flat Correction Wave Y = 535 ZigZag correction We are currently in wave Y = Zigzag. We can see that wave A had 5 waves, wave B had 3 waves and now we're in wave C. We've see subwaves 1, 2 and 3. We are waiting for subwave 4 to appear and one final move lower to...
I measure the breadth in the S&P as the SPY (market cap weighted S&P) divided by RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF). The higher the ratio, the more concentrated the market, and therefore less market breadth. As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/02 We started last trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the...
The Swiss franc has moved higher on Thursday and is trading at 0.9068 in the North American session, down 0.41%. On Wednesday, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.9147, its lowest level in two months. The Swiss National Bank meets on June 22nd and SNB President Jordan had a warning today for the markets. Jordan said that the central bank would not allow inflation...
The EUR/USD pair recovered ground on Thursday after touching its lowest level in over two months the previous day as expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve decision shifted to dovish while investors cheered with optimism the US House of Representatives passing the debt-ceiling bill. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0750 zone, up...
FOREXCOM:EURUSD is under sell pressure. Germany is officially in recession. Inflation numbers came short in both Spain and Germany. These are signs for interest rates in eurozone is slowing down the economy and at some point ECB needs to stop increasing interest rates, which would make euro weaker. In contrast to this, job openings and GDP numbers came positive...
Are you dripping into your 401k yet? Not bad area to start dripping in imo for longer term positioning. Dovish powell, in reality it was all stated before and thats why we've had the market really for weeks/months softening rate hikes - the real question is when they will actually STOP! Now, we are at key resistance area, I like the next area of resistance...
The dollar index fell 0.41% to 103.93, with the highest since March 20 at 104.54, after rising 0.1% yesterday, the sixth profit in a row, marking the longest such streak of daily gains this year amid high pricing for another Fed rate hike in June. Following such data and bullish remarks by Fed officials, chances of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in June rose from 40% to...
CBOT: Micro 30-Year Treasury Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement in principle late Saturday to raise the nation’s debt limit and cut federal spending, ending a rollercoaster round of negotiations. The current national debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion. The tentative deal would raise it by $4 trillion...
As the debt ceiling discussions draw to a close, the dollar's rally indicates that markets have largely priced in this event. The focus now returns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its notably hawkish stance. Fed officials' recent statements and fed fund futures, which are pricing in another rate hike in the upcoming meeting, suggest it might be the right time to...
There are several macro catalysts looming that are expected to play out in the next days and next couple of weeks. - DEBT Ceiling - FEDNOW launch - SEC vs Ripple FED and US TREASURY - DEBT Ceiling The United States Treasury is going broke, the FED is broke and banks are crumbling. The market crash actually started back in September 2019 when the yield curve...
U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these...
XAUUSD remains vulnerable around intraday low of near $1960 as it drops for the second consecutive day while reversing Friday’s corrective bounce to $1980. The immediate resistance near $1965 suggests further downside of the gold price. A strong break below $1950 major support opens a path to March swing low of $1935. The resistance close to $1977 can challenge...
As the USD builds momentum, and XXXUSD UDDXXX crosses come under pressure, I'm especially interested in EUR that was slammed across the board last week. We smashed down through the 109 level so I'm expecting a retracement to that level and then a push lower. to around the 1.075 level. This is a 1:6 Trade, good odds for me. For me recent EUR strength has been...
Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences...
The Canadian dollar is trading quietly ahead of a key retail sales report later today. USD/CAD is trading in Europe at 1.3484, down 0.13%. The Canadian consumer is holding tightly to their wallet, which is not all that surprising in the current economic climate. Inflation ticked higher in April, rising from 4.3% to 4.4%. Add in high interest rates and it's not...
Fundamental Backdrop Unemployment Claims decreased from 264K to 242k, far better than the forecast of 253K. This signals an overall healthier economy. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later on today on the concerns around the status of the US debt ceiling. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor...